1/ You don't have to trade every day to make good money. In fact, shorter term time frames can actually be more challenging because signals are influence by higher time and lower time frames. Let things line up and take the few trades that REALLY skew things in your favor.
2/ Commodities are about to hit a brick wall. Everyone says inflation. NO!! Weeklies are awesome for long term. Line up RSI and buyer/seller ADX spikes for best results. Throw in some trend lines which correlate and you have a perfect set up.
3/ Time frames are absolutely critical. Buyer/seller or RSI spikes on the monthly may be good for more than a year. Weekly for 6-12 months. Daily for 1-4 months. 60 min - 1-3 weeks. Don't overplay signals
4/ Buyers and sellers are in constant battle. When one group takes control, the ADX overall rises. Even if a correction follows, the trend will likely continue when ADX is high. However, a falling ADX means the trend is TERMINAL
5/ This is a weekly time frame. The higher the time, the more solid the play. Note extremely high MACD but ADX fell entire rally. This fckr is dead as a door nail and we WILL absolutely retrace all of the last year rally in time.
6/ In fact, if ADX spikes while doing so, you can expect even MORE lower prices after retrace. Hence my call for S&P 600 in a few years. Long term investors need to get out NOW. Many about to get rolled over.
6/ Sorry that was monthly time frame so even more extreme long term.
7/ This is also not a timing play. Top could be tomorrow or a few weeks from now. But main point is that within 2-4 years, prices on a lot of things will be decimated and many WILL be crushed.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Puff Dragon

Puff Dragon Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PuffDragon11

8 Feb
1/ Chart Study from Dragon's Den. Been a while, but this is just a short one. Let's start with the BIG picture. Entire rally from 1932 and rally from 2009 are IDENTICAL. It's a nested pattern
2/ So if nesting, the rally from Mar 2020 low should again be like pattern from 2009. Just one degree smaller. I think it is close.
3/ Here is a close up of move from 2020. Same pattern but one difference. We are losing momentum. Do we have one more smaller cycle left? Maybe
Read 10 tweets
26 Jan
1/ Futures down tonight. 2 things. 1) I don't like big gaps near the high. Odds favor it is recovered. 2) No break until the lower blue line breaks. As long as the gap down stays above this, watch for rally to fill gap.
2/ That said, this is the final segment in the wedge and there is likely a lot of overlap but no more than 3 clear waves. once gap fills, that may be it so a terminal end is upon us.
3/ Once the lower wedge breaks though, next should be the lower parallel line here. We are seeing downside moves appear swiftly and this may continue to hold true with little time to react. I suspect that lower lines proves to be another bounce point tho.
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug 20
1. Want to see what happens to irrational markets? In 1999-2000, the NDX went a little more than double over the span of 5 months. When it turned, 25% was lost in 7 trading days. After a strong bounce, it dropped again losing overall 35% in 3 weeks.
2. After another longer bounce and drop, the total was 40% down. It managed to recover ~62% of that in the months that followed.
3. BTFD crowd rejoiced that we are off again - not knowing that 2 years later the index would lose 85% of it's value.
Read 7 tweets
17 Jul 20
1/ Seriously. I post what I believe and I have extremely high confidence in what I see. I will emphasize - I AM NOT A DAYTRADER. I don't give a sh*t what the market has done in the last few weeks, whether I am early, blah, blah...
2/ Read my pinned post - I do not give advice and YOUR trade plan will probably not match mine.
3/ If you disagree fine. But if you're going to be a d*ck because the market went up and my LONG term prognosis is another depression, we're looking at 2 different times frames.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. This is the big picture. It has absolutely NOT changed at all and my guide for next 2-3 years. Image
2/ The 3 peaks pattern is the true market nesting pattern. In the last big picture chart, we see that 2000-2009 was a giant ABC corrective. Going one step bigger, 2000 - now is also a giant ABC but we have only just begun the C.
3/ In some ways, that will make the coming decline as well as the 2007-2009 decline similar in terms of pattern and character. It won't be 100% as the market has ways of making things a bit dynamic but the overall arch should be similar.
Read 10 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Virus thoughts. Chart below shows tracking of positive cases. Note there is a weekly up/down cycle likely due to less testing and work done on the weekend. There is a 1-2 day lag for results to filter through so looking at this, all dips are on weekend. Image
2/ Clearly, shutdowns had the anticipated affect of "flattening the curve". However, Memorial Day was a pivot when the public basically went YOLO and you started seeing mass gatherings, many people without masks
3/ Incubation is 4-14 days, but most are 10-14 down the road. Note that ~June 6 marked a low point, 12 days after Memorial Day. No doubt we are seeing the result of mass ignorance of the virus as cases tick up dramatically since then.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!