$pdn. I feel the naysayers on paladin never seem to give up. I recall a hit piece by @mikontwitti/@crux not that long ago in oct 2019 (stock was 9c & fell to 7.5c) which at the time a lot of folks on twitter thought was brilliant. (Tgt px 5c i believe) . I defended the stock
Then & along with @SachemCove & @SegraU3O8 we each took turns (we were all together at a Nuclear conf) & over beers each bought millions of shares of $PDN on the cheap- thank you Mikon (I’m blocked by him fyi). So now moving on to this analysis .
Ill make 3 points 1. The EV did not change due to this deal. 2. If you think that Uranium which has been under supplied for years and has a monster shortfall will just go to $55 well then go sell it. On yesterday’s panel Dustin Garrow/@FootnotesFirst talked about uranium going to
Marginal cost of the Producer- so minimum $75 and possibly higher. In addition last cycle with no s/d imbalance you had U going to $138. To think U will just stop at $55 is asinine- commodity mkts go from massively under px to Massively overvalued- staying at an equilibrium FV
Just doesn’t happen. & anyone looking at the Berkeley saga will realize that U elasticity is very INELASTIC. Again implying overshoot. & finally my most impt point- in the last cycle pdn’s other assets- they were detailed in the attachment from yesterday’s tweet of
350m lbs were worth $10/lb. This person assumes they are worth- Wait for it .. wait for it........... ZERO.
Finally I’m a value buyer- which is why i get no concept of stuff like BTC (& have been wrong so far). I’m also skeptical of many of the ESG valuation stocks- be it $PLUG (looks like accounting fraud), $tsla (definite accounting fraud), @Go_Rozen recently on a @jessefelder podcas
Detailed how the IRR’s for solar/wind projects are 4%. Now that is a bubble. If you’ve managed money you will realize that ESG mandates/Pension funds are constraining funds on what they can own for their energy weights.If funds cant buy dirty energy/ & think Solar/wind/Tsla is
Overvalued then a lot of money will find its way into uranium (and fyi mkt cap of 24$b is still < 1/5 last cycle high). It’s energy and its Carbon free. So if you think we’ve seen a bubble you have not seen anything yet. & yes i do hope this tweet is a repeat of the crux/mikon
Example I’d love nothing more than to buy more $pdn on the cheap.

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More from @contrarian8888

17 Mar
$PDN $PALAF. I did not want to tweet about pdn until i spoke with the ceo- Ian Purdy which i did last night. This deal is totally transformational. (Much like when $ar raised money which dropbox.com/s/p2t05wnhzcn0…
Was a s-t hiccup but stock more than 3x a short 6 mos later. I would say the #1 concern on pdn has been the debt overhang which has now been cleared. In addition this allows them as stated in their news release to go slower in signing contracts and not contract Uranium at sub
Optimal prices (SORRY UTILTY BUYERS LOL). Ian will be putting every single $ he has ever earned from PDN into the deal at 37c - this is not like some Uranium cos ceos that earn $2m a year,wear expensive suits and have their stock px go up 30% for buying 400k lbs of U and promote
Read 9 tweets
13 Mar
Inflation- a thread. I think a lot of people look at inflation but dont realise that many of the structural forces over the past decade have changed. @BvddyCorleone has already today done a phenomenal thread on energy and why long term supply discipline in place will result in
Higher energy prices. The lack of commodity investments in scores of other industries- be it Uranium, Ags, Copper etc all indicate that we will have rising commodity price inflation for years to come. But this is not all there are other less understood forces at play.
@DiMartinoBooth weekly piece this wk did a great job showing how exceptionally generous fiscal support for a mother of 2 kids (one over 7,one under 7) leads to a real unwillingness to enter the labor mkt
Read 8 tweets
13 Mar
Phenomenal thread.I agree fully that the old playbook has changed and oil companies are too focused on paying down debt and being rewarded by investors as opposed to drilling more. This is important and clearly that would have +ve cyclical ramifications for energy to do well. BUT
I’d add that there is a labor market hysteresis focus by Yellen and the Fed whereby in many of their speeches they have focused extensively on stimulating to maintain full employment-ie the benefit of maintaining full employment numbers is far
Better than that of any inflation. In fact even Brainard mentioned that the we need to accommodate inflation and not react in a Phillips curve framework. Couple this exceptional fed monetary looseness + fiscal stimulus galore- ask yourself will the Dems allow next year to have a
Read 7 tweets
19 Feb
#Uranium, $PDN $PALAF. Ive been giving it a lot of thought on the next stages of the Uranium moves. So clearly the move up in equities vs a spot px that has been languishing has caused many of the older hands some consternation. I think partly this has been caused by a huge
Outperformance in energy equities causing a need to reallocate funds from funds that are short/underweight energy coupled with a ESG problem. See below that according to JPM there may be $22bln that needs to flow into energy. As such money is flowing into many deals given
Nuclear is perceived as ESG compliant. Now this is +ve and i would think its only a matter of time before the uranium holding cos URPTF, Yellowcake which are now trading at premiums to NAV issue equity and soak up some of the spot driving prices higher. I believe this will
Read 10 tweets
20 Jan
$PDN. ($PALAF) I know paladin energy has been a rocket ship and after conversing with the ceo i am even more pumped. The uranium market is extremely quiet because of the lockdowns and covid restrictions raging throughout Europe & the US. That being said their view is by
Feb or early March, the term market will pick up considerably. A lot of utilities drew down on inventories last year because they weren’t willing to hit the spot mkt. This game can only last so long and by summer they will just need to sign contracts. Ian mentioned that a
Firm had commissioned 2 reactors worth (>10$bn each) and had just secured 2 years of U supply. The ratio of capex spent on just commissioning a multi billion dollar plant and then barely having much U supply is just nuts. This is because the market is lulled but he expects it to
Read 12 tweets
28 Dec 20
$pdn, $uuuu. Firstly i used to be a huge bull on energy fuels and bought it at $1.6 in 2018 (spring) and sold it in 4/19 at $4. I even told people then it was the height of insanity for people to think (lot of newbies entered uranium then) thinking uranium would be $70 tomorrow
With section 232. Well i enjoyed missing over a 50% collapse in the share px. Seeing uuuu again today at over a $600m mkt cap (including all the newly issued shares over the period ive been out of the stock (+40% increase in share count) vs a $pdn at 350m mkt cap with 4x the
Resources & prodn at 6m when they restart (uuuu will need over 400m$ (i know this from my conversations with mgmt) to get to just 4m prodn capacity & you can tell we’ve again hit insanity with little analysis as new investors chase a stupid 75$M in govt buying which is
Read 6 tweets

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