Big number!
425 banks took €330.5bn in ECB's TLTRO-III.7 operation, highest since June.
A positive sign for the banking sector and the real economy.
/thread
This large take-up will result in a €315bn increase in total TLTRO borrowing (to €2080bn excluding PELTROs) after €15.7bn mature from the final TLTRO-II.4 next week.
€330.5bn represents a 18% increase in total TLTRO borrowings vs. a 10% increase in borrowing capacity following the ECB decision (from 50% to 55% of eligible loans). It suggests that banks in the core have increased their borrowing more than proportionally.
This is particularly important because core banks, which have a good visibility over their lending performance vs TLTRO benchmarks, could be more optimistic relative to future lending including after the expiry of state loan guarantees.
Here's the TLTRO history chart, a thing of beauty indeed @natacha_valla.
Total longer-term liquidity provision will rise to €2106bn, above the €2 trillion mark for the first time ever.
With excess liquidity close to €3700bn and rising, today’s operation will make little difference to money markets. But if anything it confirms the importance of TLTROs as a central part of the ECB's toolkit. No need to ease conditions for now, but they are here to stay.

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More from @fwred

17 Mar
Remember TLTROs?
The take-up at the 7th operation (TLTRO-III.7) will be published tomorrow at 11:30 CET. It will be the most important operation since June 2020 (when a record €1.3tn was allotted) as the ECB eased TLTRO conditions in December. (1/n)
The ECB increased TLTRO borrowing allowance from 50% to 55% of eligible loans (adding €290bn), and added three new operations between June and December 2021. Most importantly, the interest rate discount period was extended by one year, to June 2022. (2/n) ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement…
Here’s the outstanding amounts of TLTRO borrowing by country as at end-January.

Total borrowing was €1792bn, or 56% of total allowances. Belgium (88% of allowances), Spain (74%) and Italy (73%) were among the largest TLTRO users. (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
7 Dec 20
ECB QE data is out!
Bulk of PEPP still in public debt securities (93% of the €700bn so far).

A chartstorm 👇
Before we dig into monthly QE across countries and markets, last week's PEPP purchases were the largest in almost 6 months (€21.3bn).
Could be catch-up, could be that the ECB wanted to send a signal ahead of this week's meeting, but more likely front-loading before Xmas break.
ECB QE monthly data: stabilising ahead of Christmas break.
Average monthly PEPP was €66bn in Oct-Nov, of which €70bn per month in public debt (as CP holdings declined by €8bn).
Read 11 tweets
7 Dec 20
Focus on the ECB on Thursday (but also on PEPP breakdown today and TLTRO-III.6 on Tursday).

We have an ECB pre-committment and a firm consensus - how could the ECB surprise? (1/n)
The ECB's focus will be on the *duration* of policy support
more than on the *intensity* of asset purchases. The ECB could extend PEPP & TLTROs for even longer, although the consensus will have moved closer to our view by now. (2/n)
In order to extend the PEPP to June 2022, the ECB will need to increase its size by €450-850bn, so they could also surprise with a larger number (>€600bn).
We expect flexibility on both sides: the envelope might not be used in full, but they'll be ready to do more. (3/n)
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov 20
A few charts from the @ecb Financial Stability Review.

1. Total net funding of euro area households, firms and sovereigns, including various EU support schemes
ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ec…
2. Bank loans to euro area corporates: more than 7% are affected by state guarantees, and 14% by moratoria.
3. Banks' Net Interest Income contracting due to margin compression. Overall profitability markedly lower due to loan loss provisioning too (though lower than predicted).
Read 10 tweets
28 Oct 20
The rapid deterioration in macro/financial conditions will put a great deal of pressure on the ECB on Thursday.
How can they hint at an increase in asset purchases without saying it? What else could @Lagarde say or do? (1/n)
Even before the second virus wave hit, there was little doubt that the ECB would need to ease again by year-end, based on the PEPP's dual function, Philip Lane's “two-stage approach” and Fabio Panetta’s “asymmetric reaction”. (2/n)
The ECB will likely postpone a decision to December based on the updated/extented staff projections, aiming at a broader consensus. But now that downside risks are materialising, @Lagarde needs to do more than just “send a signal” to markets on Thursday. (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
27 Oct 20
A few more charts on the euro area credit cycle.
September saw the first contraction in new bank loans to non-financial corporations in a year, but this came after the largest boom ever fueled by emergency measures and state guarantees.
Plotted along with the ECB's BLS, there's a lot of noise due to public guarantees for sure but the positive trend doesn't appear to be challenged yet. Expected demand for credit over the next 3 months actually improved slightly in Q3.
In terms of country breakdown, the slowdown in bank lending appears to be relatively broad-based post Covid surge, although Italy continues to look surprisingly resilient.
Read 4 tweets

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