Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

Breaking the Template [Thread]

In this thread I analyse the form of highly owned players to identify opportunities where FPL managers can get ahead of the curve. This article will provide FPL tips for those making a late charge towards the top 10k.

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Pep Roulette:

Pep's Man City are 14pts clear at the top of the table from nearest challengers Leicester City with just eight games of their season remaining. City’s league advantage is as strong as the depth of a squad which will be utilised in the fight for four trophies.

Frustratingly, popular Man City players were reduced to a single fixture in two consecutive DGWs. Pep has been transparent about rotation saying, “Everybody wants to be involved from the beginning. Now, it’s perfect because we rotate 6-7 players and everyone's fit. cc @BenDinnery

The Fall Guy:

At the end of Gameweek 28, almost 41% of the top 10k owned a Man City trio comprising of double defence and Ilkay Gündogan (£6.2m). Before GW27 for Gündogan I highlighted the threat of rotation and change in role with the return of both strikers. cc @LiveFPLnet

Both domestically and in Europe, the German international is operating at times almost in a rotating false nine. While he is receiving and dispatching big chances with unerring accuracy FPL managers may be reluctant to lose an asset who has been a standout operator this term.

Dias (£6.1m) is the most nailed on option having missed out only once this season. The return of Laporte (£6.0m) has seen centre-back turned goal machine Stones (£5.3m) rotated. His value price may see FPL managers happy to rely on their bench given Stones likely won’t be sub on.

Many could argue that selling Joao Cancelo (£6.1m) is harsh given how integral he has been to Man City’s transformation this season. However, the increased risk of rotation married with guaranteed blank gameweeks represents an opportunity for those willing to break the template.

The former Juventus man boasts good recent underlying numbers with Cancelo taking more shots albeit with less accuracy. Furthermore, while he is creating fewer chances his big chance creation has increased.

Doubling up on Man City defence has not been as fruitful with just two clean sheets over the last six league matches. Moreover, Man City fixtures over the next six gameweeks (blank, lei, LEE, avl, blank, cry) see them rank poorly on the Hub ticker.

Should Man City beat Everton in the FA Cup they will play six games in April over 22 days. The best immediate fixture on paper is Leeds United in Gameweek 31. However, this match represents an opportunity for rotation given that it is bookended by the ECL QF.

cc @ LR12

Cresswell:

Cresswell (£5.9m) is currently the top-scoring defender on FPL with 135pts. On season data the West Ham full-back ranks top amongst all defenders for both assists and big chances created. Cresswell ranks first among defenders for successful crosses and free kicks.

Cresswell is no stranger to the bonus point system lifting top honours on four occasions and has scored more than nine pts in a game on five occasions this season. The immediate fixtures for West Ham (ARS, wol, LEI, new, CHE) are no walk in the park.

However, recently Newcastle and Wolves have demonstrated weakness at right-back which Cresswell would only be too happy to exploit. With 22.64% top 10k ownership I feel Cresswell can make hay in the easier fixtures to cap off his strongest season to date.

Tierney:

The no-frills Scot carries his match kit in a Tesco bag and is tipped by some of the Arsenal support for captaincy. In comparison with Cresswell per appearance, the former Celt accrues more touches in the box (1.86 v 0.32) and final third passes (15.57 v 13.79).

Arsenal rank favourably in the long run with games against some of the division’s blunter attacks (shu, FUL, new, WBA, cry, BHA). With just 1.37% top 10k ownership Tierney is an ultra-differential who will relish facing the shaky right-hand side of both West Ham and Newcastle.

However, if Arteta focuses primarily on the Europa League Tierney could be rested when you need him most.

Shaw:

Often the victim of previous manager Jose Mourinho’s scorn Luke Shaw (£5.2m) has finally come of age under the tutelage of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

The Englishman has posted some amazing underlying numbers since Gameweek 22 ranking first amongst defenders for key passes and assists. During the same period, the former Southampton defender ranks top amongst all defenders for both FPL points and bonus points.

From Gameweek 30 Man United have some mixed fixtures (BHA, tot, BUR, lee, LIV) however two clean sheets would be very possible. Furthermore, Luke Shaw won’t lack motivation as he seeks to nail a starting Three Lions spot at Euro 2021.

Alonso:

Since the arrival of Tuchel, wing-back Marcos Alonso (£5.7m) has enjoyed a renaissance. However, the Spaniard is still a rotation threat with Tuchel’s tendency to tinker possibly even surpassing Pep Guardiola.

Despite limitations on his game time since Gameweek 21, Alonso ranks amongst defenders first for shots and shots in the box. The former Sunderland man has created a very respectable three big chances and ranks fifth amongst all defenders since Gameweek 21 for expected assists.

The suggestion that Alonso will play against more defensive-minded teams bodes well for the run of fixtures from Gameweek 30 (WBA, cry, BHA, whu, FUL). With just 0.77% top 10k ownership Alonso represents a template busting differential for those willing to wait for a replacement.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, Man City has two blank gameweeks in quick succession and a jam-packed schedule with matches across four competitions. Recent rotation has exposed defensive weakness of old and I feel there is a case in moving away from Man City double defence.

Of the players with a game this week I feel that Cresswell is the stand-out option. For those willing to wait until next week Luke Shaw is probably a player we should all own. Thrill-seekers may happily roll the dice on former 24-carat FPL gold Alonso securing a run of games.

Breaking free from a Man City triple up now could have the added benefit of punting on their second string when they wrap up the league. I’ll whisper it gently but it wouldn’t surprise me if Sergio Aguero (£10.3m) smashed the template into smithereens against Leeds in GW31.

For those that have read, thank you.

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Peace & good luck for #BGW29

PS...

I'm appearing as a guest on "Net That Haul" with @FplMariner 🚢& @FPLLens 🧐 before GW30.

Hit subscribe and the bell on the channel to receive notifications. Should be fun.

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