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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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18 Mar, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Another round of lessons on part-way measures not working is happening around the world.

There is no compromise solution.

#zerocovd #nocovid is the exit strategy that works.

1/
Japan's CDP (Constitutional democratic party) is proposing a #ZeroCovid strategy in contrast to the "with covid" government strategy.

cdp-japan.jp/covid-19/zero-…
Aiming for "Zero Corona" is the strongest economic measure -- Ask Toshio Nakagawa, Chairman of the Japan Medical Association

3/
m3.com/open/iryoIshin… Image
Canada:

Canada has eased restrictions since January. The relaxation of restrictions and the spreading of the B117 variant beginning in Feb, is leading to a “third wave” of COVID-19. Increases in deaths will be delayed by a few weeks and reporting delays.

1/ Image
Ontario, Alberta, and B.C are each reporting nearly or more than 1,000 cumulative B.1.1.7 variant cases as of March 16.

ctvnews.ca/health/coronav… Image
Ukraine:

Today In Ukraine cases went up by 26% compared with the previous day, almost the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The country is soaring into the "third wave". Image
France:

France will impose tougher restrictions in some areas, including Paris, to counter accelerating cases. Such localized restrictions (a red zone strategy) don’t stop growth elsewhere.

Localized relaxation in green zones is the exit strategy.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9… Image
And....

The Canada Atlantic bubble 2.0 will reopen by April 19

Congratulations!

cbc.ca/news/canada/no… ImageImage

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
21 Mar
In the past month, US effective reproduction number (Rt) has risen from 0.78 (historical low), back up above R=1.

Why is Rt rising? We keep relaxing restrictions, and new variants are accelerating transmission even as vaccinations are happening

1/ ImageImage
This shows up in case counts, where the recent decline in cases has reversed and cases are now growing. With reopening across the country, as well as new variants, growth will accelerate into a “4th wave”

2/ ImageImage
Vaccinations shouldn't be expected to be a get-out-of-jail-free card in ending the pandemic. New variants not only accelerate transmission, they can undermine immunity of prior infection and vaccination. The best strategy is to aim for elimination using vaccination to help.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
20 Mar
CDC continues to claim they need proof that the ice is thin.

i.e. proof of unsafe, instead of proof of safe.

..and there is enough proof.

More kids in class increases transmission.

Source: CDC

So: Reducing 6ft to 3ft increases transmission

1/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
"Incidence increased with the proportion of students receiving in-person instruction."
What did CDC say today?

Instead of 6ft they say:

"CDC now recommends that, with universal masking, students should maintain a distance of at least 3 feet in classroom settings."

The push to open schools with community transmission is unsafe for students, teachers and families
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
17 Mar
Three main identified “variants of concern” with more rapid transmission, higher severity, and vaccine evasion have spread globally in recent months because travel restrictions were not sufficiently strong. Each can be considered like a new pandemic.

public.tableau.com/profile/brooks…

1/
A new P.3 variant first found in Philippines has E484K spike protein mutation found in Brazilian P1 variant, associated to stronger receptor binding and lower vaccine efficacy, and the N501Y mutation found in the UK B117 variant also considered to increase transmissibility.

2/
And....🥁...😬

Two cases of the Philippines P.3 variant have been detected in the UK.

Without travel restrictions the worst variants are everywhere. [When will they learn?]

[note: There are no Australian variants, none]

3/
twitter.com/i/events/13719…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Mar
India reported the year’s biggest daily increase in cases on Sunday, with 25,320 new cases. Maharashtra, the epicenter of the renewed surge is imposing new restrictions but not a new lockdown. Halfway measures are not sufficient for this pandemic.

1/
reuters.com/article/idUSKB…
In the US progress has been made and the best opportunity to exit the outbreak is now.

North Dakota, Wyoming, and Hawaii are below 100 new cases per day.

2/
Alaska, District of Columbia, Main, Montana, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Vermont are between 100-200 daily cases.

There is an opportunity to open up normally zones with zero new cases as long as they have restrictions for non essential travel

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Mar
Why the exit is hard and how to get there:

There is typically significant societal support to go from 10,000 to 1,000 or even 100 cases: individuals see their friends and family getting sick and governments fear political backlash from overflowing hospitals.

1/
But maintaining lockdown measures to get from 100 cases per day to 1 can seem unnecessary to individuals, businesses, and governments. However, failing to maintain the closure will allow cases to rise again.

2/
The key to complete the elimination process once the cases become low is achieving conscious recognition and public appreciation of the final stage of the process, the countdown to zero.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Mar
Italy is having a rapid increase in cases and deaths. As always, the sooner action is taken the better. While Italy will be strengthening its region-based lockdowns, the way this will be done is critical for the next stage of the outbreak response.

thelocal.it/20210311/covid…
A “red zone” strategy, where restrictions are strengthened as cases go up, and relaxed as cases go down is exactly the prescription for health and economic disaster through yo-yo lockdowns.

2/
In contrast, a green zone exit strategy has been advocated by advisor to the Minister of Health, Riccardi Walter @WRicciardi

3/
unionesarda.it/en/articolo/ne…
Read 7 tweets

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