🧵
Folks
Homicide and Domestic Violence rates are indeed up, and have been since the beginning of the pandemic
When you hear law enforcement sources saying it is b/c of bail...or other reforms, please ask them for their evidence
I follow this stuff pretty closely 1/
Folks
Homicide and Domestic Violence rates are indeed up, and have been since the beginning of the pandemic
When you hear law enforcement sources saying it is b/c of bail...or other reforms, please ask them for their evidence
I follow this stuff pretty closely 1/
1. The increase in homicides has been nearly universal across most U.S. cities while court practices in each state were wildly disparate - which means attributing the cause to unique changes in one jurisdiction is almost always NONSENSE
theintercept.com/2021/02/21/202…
theintercept.com/2021/02/21/202…
2. Crime and violent crime overall are DOWN not UP....Homicide and Domestic Violence in major cities is up...which is certainly problematic.....but we should actually know what we are fighting before we "crack down" based on law enforcement suspicions
citycrimestats.com/covid/
citycrimestats.com/covid/
3. Cracking down did not stop the increase in homicides....
How do I know that? Well Bill Barr tried to stop it and massively increased arrests but did not reduce the homicide rate in those areas where there were crack downs
voanews.com/usa/despite-hi…
How do I know that? Well Bill Barr tried to stop it and massively increased arrests but did not reduce the homicide rate in those areas where there were crack downs
voanews.com/usa/despite-hi…
4. There are a lot of alternative explanations...
The pandemic itself: Strain, stress, correlated unemployment, (maybe) lethal Domestic Violence under lockdown conditions
counciloncj.org/news/550859/Ne…
The pandemic itself: Strain, stress, correlated unemployment, (maybe) lethal Domestic Violence under lockdown conditions
counciloncj.org/news/550859/Ne…
As @Abt_Thomas put it:
“The coronavirus pandemic has concentrated in precisely the same communities where high rates of crime and violence concentrate...This pushes the risk of violence even higher.”
“The coronavirus pandemic has concentrated in precisely the same communities where high rates of crime and violence concentrate...This pushes the risk of violence even higher.”
5. Police legitimacy: After George Floyd’s murder there was a decrease in public trust in police and policing
@Abt_Thomas again:
“Because of broken trust with community members, some members are less likely to rely on police, provide information"
@Abt_Thomas again:
“Because of broken trust with community members, some members are less likely to rely on police, provide information"
6. Gun sales: 19.2 million more guns were sold between January and June than during the same period in 2019
People won't necessarily like this, but maybe.....with a lot more guns out there, there are a lot more homicides....just saying
People won't necessarily like this, but maybe.....with a lot more guns out there, there are a lot more homicides....just saying
7. Other things work better than crackdowns or trying to rollback reforms...in fact, actually working on violence prevention and addressing material hardship is MUCH more successful than crackdowns, listen to @abgelb
usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
8. And finally, lets address this bail issue....
Prosecutor's and police keep coming back to bail reform but it is almost all nonsense....most of this comes from NY + here are the facts
courtinnovation.org/publications/b…
Prosecutor's and police keep coming back to bail reform but it is almost all nonsense....most of this comes from NY + here are the facts
courtinnovation.org/publications/b…
Bail reform happened in New Jersey, DC, Philadelphia, Kentucky, and California without increasing crime or a statistically significant increase in failure to appear tickets.
And the evidence in New York does not back the claims of the FOP
And the evidence in New York does not back the claims of the FOP
In addition, it is utterly immoral to make the decision about who stays in jail and who gets out based on how much money someone has
The idea that a rich someone charged with murder is somehow less "dangerous" than a poor someone charged with murder is offensive
The idea that a rich someone charged with murder is somehow less "dangerous" than a poor someone charged with murder is offensive
And much of this discussion gets started when law enforcement folks point to someone who got out on bail and committed a new crime....which is awful
But recidivism happens with or without bail reform, what you should ask is if more new crime happened before bail reform or after
But recidivism happens with or without bail reform, what you should ask is if more new crime happened before bail reform or after
I get why people freak out, but if new crime DECLINES in total after reform (as it has in every jurisdiction where it has been done).....highlighting a specific recidivist crime and using that sensationalist coverage to rollback reform (drumroll please) would INCREASE CRIME
When you report these stories....at least ask the source claiming things like "homicides are up because of bail"
At least push them for proof, do not accept these statements at face value, prosecutors are not criminologists (and many don't even keep stats)
At least push them for proof, do not accept these statements at face value, prosecutors are not criminologists (and many don't even keep stats)
Finally, yes, it is problematic that homicides are up across all major cities....we should address it, but we should probably make sure we know what is happening FIRST and then apply solutions that are likely to work...not the same long-failed law enforcement crackdowns
Regardless, one thing that will be hard to get past is that while Operation Legend increased arrests, homicide rates were not impacted by those arrests....which puts a real crack in the notion that crime is the problem and law enforcement is the sole answer
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
