Great @bmj_latest study from OpenSAFELY
Despite schools being the only thing open for much of wave 2 in the UK, living w/ children associated with marginal increased absolute risk of COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation, and no increase in death
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
1/7
Despite schools being the only thing open for much of wave 2 in the UK, living w/ children associated with marginal increased absolute risk of COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation, and no increase in death
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
1/7
The study compared hospital records of over 9mil adults <65yrs during wave 1 and wave 2, comparing those who lived with children (split by primary and secondary age) to those who don't
They adjusted for covariates such as deprivation, age, BMI, smoking, etc
2/7
They adjusted for covariates such as deprivation, age, BMI, smoking, etc
2/7
Wave 1: No difference in outcomes, except much lower risk of death for people with children
Wave 2: Tiny increase risk in infection and hospitalisation for those living with children (smaller for young children), but same or lower risk of death from COVID-19 or any cause.
3/7
Wave 2: Tiny increase risk in infection and hospitalisation for those living with children (smaller for young children), but same or lower risk of death from COVID-19 or any cause.
3/7
The important factor here is that for a large proportion of wave 2, the whole country was in lockdown *except schools*
This means we could not have pushed much more of the risk of exposure on to schools if we had tried
4/7
This means we could not have pushed much more of the risk of exposure on to schools if we had tried
4/7
Importantly, these types of studies are full of factors we can't account for
People with children will inherently behave differently to those without
Hence a similar study from Scotland found the opposite; living with children = lower risk!
adc.bmj.com/content/early/…
5/7
People with children will inherently behave differently to those without
Hence a similar study from Scotland found the opposite; living with children = lower risk!
adc.bmj.com/content/early/…
5/7
Does that mean these findings aren't useful? No.
It all fits with current evidence - putting children in school increases their exposure to COVID, which likely increases the household exposure
BUT - this equates to an amazingly small increase risk to family members
6/7
It all fits with current evidence - putting children in school increases their exposure to COVID, which likely increases the household exposure
BUT - this equates to an amazingly small increase risk to family members
6/7
This is important in balancing out risks
The harms of NOT going to school are considerable
There are risks to sending kids to school, but fortunately they appears relatively low
Another piece to add to the puzzle
7/7
The harms of NOT going to school are considerable
There are risks to sending kids to school, but fortunately they appears relatively low
Another piece to add to the puzzle
7/7
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