But let's go further, because this is the "consensus" guide for who to follow on Twitter.
I analyzed the top 500 most-followed scientists working on climate issues from KHayhoe's list, and collated who they are following to create recommendations based on their "consensus".
4/
Unsurprisingly, scientists working on climate follow a lot of other scientists, so let's start there.
Below is a list of scientists that are the most followed by their fellow scientists working on climate (% of top 500 that are following is shown in parentheses).
5/
Thus completes this "consensus" list of Twitter accounts, including all accounts followed by at least 180 of the 500 most-followed scientists in climate.
Don't see some of your Twitter favorites? Feel free to add them in the replies.
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A year ago, when COVID was just taking off in many places, I never expected that China would actually end up as one of the least affected countries.
China's official COVID death toll stands at 4,636.
That's probably an undercount for several reasons, but even if the truth were twice as high it would still be a very low rate of death compared to most Western countries.
What China appears to have achieved early in the pandemic was the complete elimination of local transmission.
Few countries seriously tried to do this, and even fewer succeeded.
THREAD) Climate scientists often don’t get as much recognition as they deserve.
For this #FollowFriday, I’ve prepared a list of 13 professional climate scientists, with at least 20,000 followers each, but which @Twitter has not yet @Verified.
First up, Professor Stefan Rahmstrof (@rahmstorf) is Head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
He is a leading climate scientist, 2017 winner of the @theAGU's Climate Communication Prize, and an expert on the oceans. 2/
Dr. Kate Marvel (@DrKateMarvel) of Columbia University & NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Science.
She develops and evaluates climate models, while also frequently writing & speaking about climate change. One of @TIME’s "15 Women Leading the Fight Against Climate Change". 3/
If 2020 ends up as a new record warm year, and it might, then a significant component of that will have been the incredibly warm start of the year that has just occurred in Asia.
1/
January to April, Russia averaged nearly +6.0 °C (+11 °F) above historical norms. That's one hell of a "mild winter".
That's not only a new record anomaly for Russia. That's the largest January to April anomaly ever seen in any country's national average.
2/
In what may be a sign of worse to come later this year, the exceptionally warm winter has been followed by unusually large early season wildfires in Russia.
As with the last release, they expect all US states will see their initial peak at some time during April, though with some earlier than others.
A few of these have been reshuffled, with a slight overall shift towards earlier peaks.
Because the IHME model is trained on a lagging indicator, i.e. per state deaths, I haven't been surprised to see their total projected deaths be revised downward (93,000 -> 82,000 -> 60,000), and wouldn't be surprised if it goes somewhat lower still.
Simplistic (and therefore probably stupid) curve fit to USA COVID-19 cases and deaths.
If you want to be an optimist, then the USA may be near the peak of its new cases, and the first wave could even be mostly over by May.
To be clear the above plot is just a dumb curve-fitting exercise, but that simple model does fit the observations pretty closely.
The IHME modeling group is also doing curve-fitting with error functions, but they go state-by-state and ultimately predict ~82,000 deaths.
A second problem with such simple modeling is that it can't really answer the question of what comes next.
If you fit an error function (or similar curve) then you are explicitly assuming that COVID-19 will just go away after the peak. That's pretty unlikely.