🧵 Tweeps: after bringing you "US-China relations, Mean Girls edition," I present to you....
"The Quad & China, Pride and Prejudice Edition" 1/
"The Quad & China, Pride and Prejudice Edition" 1/
2/ The Quad summit did not suddenly happen. The grouping and the countries' deepening ties have developed over time...
3/ Inspiration for Quad 1.0 in 2007 came from the coordinated response to the tsunami in 2004-05. They seemed like-minded at the time...
4/ But the like-mindedness didn't last & Quad 1.0 dissipated. One even might say, dissipated like sea foam....
5/ Then, in 2017, the US wanted to revive the Quad. Australia and Japan seemed willing too...
6/ But India was reluctant...
7/ Contributing to India's reluctance was its sense that Australia had ditched its Quad 1.0 partners the first time around, in part to curry favor with China. And Delhi wasn't sure Canberra would stay the course this time...
8/ Also contributing to India's reluctance was its view that the US had no compassion for its strategic autonomy.
So Washington spent time assuring Delhi that it had high respect for its strategic autonomy...
So Washington spent time assuring Delhi that it had high respect for its strategic autonomy...
9/ Meanwhile, Australia and India made up, and started building trust with each other...
10/ Meanwhile, the bilaterals between the 4 countries were getting closer...
...in part because China was getting more assertive, including unilaterally changing status quos
...in part because China was getting more assertive, including unilaterally changing status quos
11/ Chinese coercion also increased...
12/ And Chinese wolf warriors emerged, targeting a number of countries...
13/ And that led to the revival of the Quad.
For, it is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single country in possession of an assertive China as a neighbor must be in want of partners
For, it is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single country in possession of an assertive China as a neighbor must be in want of partners
14/ The Quad does talk about China...privately. They don't talk about China...publicly.
15/ Part of the reason they don't talk about China publicly is to assuage concerns that countries in the Indo-Pacific might have.
It's also one reason the Quad led with the vaccine initiative, hoping to show the region that the grouping can offer positive solutions...
It's also one reason the Quad led with the vaccine initiative, hoping to show the region that the grouping can offer positive solutions...
16/ In the region, the jury is out on the Quad. Some remain Quad skeptics, some are now more Quad curious...
17/ China, like Catherine de Bourgh, is "most seriously displeased."
But it can't seem to make its mind up about what it finds wrong with the Quad. Its criticism yo-yos from "this grouping is untenable & meaningless" to "this is a destabilizing Asian NATO"
But it can't seem to make its mind up about what it finds wrong with the Quad. Its criticism yo-yos from "this grouping is untenable & meaningless" to "this is a destabilizing Asian NATO"
18/ While China glowers, the Quad persists, with an agreement to continue to meet...including in person at the leader level sometime this year.
19/ So for now, I'll end this thread. But with one message for all those who continue to call it an "Asian NATO," the "QUAD," "an alliance," "the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" or a "mini-NATO"....
20/ For those asking, the link to "US-China competition, Mean Girls edition"
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1272665756375879682
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