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Tanvi Madan Profile picture
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17 Feb, 8 tweets, 5 min read
.@StateDeptSpox says that tomorrow @SecBlinken will participate in a meeting with Quad counterparts and another with E3 counterparts (+EU foreign affairs council next week)

Feb. 18: 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 foreign ministers mtg #Quad
Feb. 18: 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸 foreign ministers mtg #E3 Image
2/ @MEAIndia statement re Quad meeting tomorrow
mea.gov.in/press-releases… Image
3/ For folks new to the Quad, re-upping these charts
Part I: brook.gs/3jzZB52
Part II: brook.gs/2SFiAzo

(has been some activity since the last ministerial in October including bilats, trilats - incl w other partners - and a Quad+Canada ASW exercise) Image
4/ At the October ministerial, these were the issues mentioned in the readouts (for those looking for "China," it's basically the subtext of most of that list) Image
5/ US & India stmts for tmrw's Quad mtg say agenda:
- COVID19
- climate change
- "regional and global issues especially practical areas of cooperation towards maintaining a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region"

I'd expect latest China-rel devps, Myanmar to be on list
6/ Indian readout of Quad mtg
- finally uses "Quad" vs 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 "consultations"
- notes shared attributes, strong case for coop
- RBIO vs LIO (India's pref)
- FOIIP + Eur buy-in to Indo-Pac
- COVID, climate, mar. sec. HA/DR, supply chain resilience, CT
mea.gov.in/press-releases… Image
7/ Indian foreign minister notes Quad talking "practical cooperation"
Image
8/ US Quad readout
- COVID, climate
- countering disinfo, CT, maritime sec, democratic resilience in region
- ASEAN centrality (evergreen)
- Myanmar: unsurprisingly stronger language than 🇮🇳
- ministerials at least annually + officials mtgs regularly
state.gov/secretary-blin… Image

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More from @tanvi_madan

Tanvi Madan Profile picture
20 Feb
🧵 Following up on the Quad ministerial held yesterday, a quick addition to my Quad charts, breaking down the readouts from Australia, India, Japan & the US. 1/ Image
2/ The “when”: this was the 3rd ministerial of the Quad, which was revived after a decade in 2017. Beyond these senior-level meetings, the Quad countries interact in various ways (see brook.gs/3blCOXQ). This was the first hi-level Quad meeting of the Biden administration. Image
3/ While there had been some questions abt the fate of the Quad, over the last few weeks, comments from Prez Biden on down (incl Austin, Blinken, Sullivan) hv indicated it is here to stay for now. At yda's ministerial, the countries agreed to an annual ministerial + add’l mtgs Image
Read 10 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
17 Feb
1/ That sound u hear is the huge sigh of relief from many Indian women. A journo accused a minister/fmr editor of sexual harassment (20+others then spoke out) & found herself in the docket

We owe a debt of gratitude to Priya Ramani & other women who speak out esp vs powerful men
2/ More context in this piece.

Priya Ramani: "I spoke because women before me spoke up...I spoke so people after me can speak up."

nytimes.com/2021/02/17/wor…
3/ I hope this judgment holds because a different verdict would have sent a message to Indian women: don't speak up against sexual harassment because, among other things, you will be the target of lawfare.
Read 4 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
19 Jan
India will be relatively pleased w/ Lloyd Austin's remarks/answers re China, India, Indo-Pacific at confirmation hearing. It'll be less pleased -- though not surprised since he's a fmr CENTCOM commander -- re his answers on Pakistan
Source: answers submitted to Senate Armed Services Cmte advance policy questions armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
For reference: Mattis's answers to advance policy questions on Pakistan ahead of his 2017 confirmation hearing
Read 4 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
19 Jan
1/ Secretary of Defense nominee Lloyd Austin at Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing:

"Globally I understand that Asia must be the focus of our effort and I see China in particular as a pacing challenge for the Department"
2/ SecDef nominee Lloyd Austin on advance policy Qs

"Globally...most significant challenge I will face will be to ensure DOD's contd efforts to prepare & strengthen the US military for a dynamic, future security landscape driven by accelerating competitions w China & w Russia.."
3/ SecDef nominee Austin in written answers says strategic competition w/ China & Russia primary challenges but "because of its ascent and the scope and scale of its military modernization, China is the top priority"
Read 25 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
19 Jan
Sen. Mark Warner, currently cmte vice chair, soon to be chair: "Echoing what the chmn [Sen. Rubio] has said, perhaps the greatest challenge facing you as the DNI will be a rising China that is committed to surpassing & eclipsing the US militarily, economically & technologically"
2/ DNI Nominee Avril Haines: "we should provide the necessary intelligence to support long-term bipartisan efforts to outcompete China, gaining & sharing insight into China's intentions & capabilities..."
3/ DNI Nominee Avril Haines: "...while also supporting more immediate efforts to counter Beijing's unfair, illegal, aggressive & coercive actions as well as its human rights violations whenever we can"
Read 17 tweets
Tanvi Madan Profile picture
19 Jan
🧵 A lil’ late to this but important enough an issue that I’d like to flag why I have a slightly different perspective from Jeff on this. CAATSA sanctions wld hv a greater impact on US-India relations than GSP/tariffs & cld set back 🇮🇳🇺🇸 coop & Indians' view of US. Here’s why 1/
2/ A major reason for Indian hesitations about the US historically has been the sense that as a partner it is

- unreliable
- attaches too many strings
- weaponizes interdependence

(thus curtailing Indian strategic autonomy)
3/ Comes from India seeing US

- cut off supply of mil equipment, parts in 1960s in midst of a crisis
- stepping back in 1971 from promises to help India if China attacked
-post-nuclear test sanctions

India-US rels might hv “survived” those but they were significant setbacks
Read 15 tweets

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