4/ Since Asia loves its three no's, five maybes, seven assurances or thereabouts, here are 6 "nots" w/r/t the Quad
5/ Better words for the Quad are "grouping" or "coalition."
Think abt it in the context of shift in Asia from a hub & spoke sys of alliances & partnerships to a spider web of relationships btwn various nodes. Like a web, it is not a finished product but continuing to be spun.
9/ A few have asked about China's reaction to the Quad. It has yo-yo'd (e.g. see Wang Yi's stmts). Like with the grouping's critics more broadly, can categorize 2 reax as "not doing much" or "doing too much"
10/ Re tweet (4) above, @sid_ravishankar has pointed out that @SecBlinken used "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" in his testimony on the Hill. That's reverting to the 2007 name for it but ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ต do not use QSD.
Maybe ๐บ๐ธ can persuade them to embrace it. If it does, will update.
11/ TBHaren't even too many references from Quad 1.0-era official docs/stmts to "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue."
Recently ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ต hv used other labels. Sthg to keep an eye/ear out for tmrw if there's a jt stmt
12/ Maybe an enterprising soul can track down the origin of "Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue" in the US & why it was used so infrequently.
Why didn't ๐ฆ๐บ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ต use QSD? Probably to allay concerns in the region (& at home) that the grp was an Asian NATO or just security-focused
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.@ryanl_hass: "Implicit in the structure of the [#Quad] agenda will be a recognition that the US & others will enjoy greater attraction & influence by delivering solutions to problems than by presenting opposition to China" bloomberg.com/news/articles/โฆ
.@ryanl_hass: "...If the coordinated efforts of the Quad countries spurs China to up its efforts to deliver solutions to regional challenges, thatโs all to the better.โ bloomberg.com/news/articles/โฆ
Noone believes the Quad has nothing to do w/ China; & denials are only seen as "the Quad doth protest too much."
But there is a nuance here that Ryan alludes to -- the Quad is not about containing China; it *is* in part about shaping China's behavior.
๐งต Following up on the Quad ministerial held yesterday, a quick addition to my Quad charts, breaking down the readouts from Australia, India, Japan & the US. 1/
2/ The โwhenโ: this was the 3rd ministerial of the Quad, which was revived after a decade in 2017. Beyond these senior-level meetings, the Quad countries interact in various ways (see brook.gs/3blCOXQ). This was the first hi-level Quad meeting of the Biden administration.
3/ While there had been some questions abt the fate of the Quad, over the last few weeks, comments from Prez Biden on down (incl Austin, Blinken, Sullivan) hv indicated it is here to stay for now. At yda's ministerial, the countries agreed to an annual ministerial + addโl mtgs
.@StateDeptSpox says that tomorrow @SecBlinken will participate in a meeting with Quad counterparts and another with E3 counterparts (+EU foreign affairs council next week)
1/ That sound u hear is the huge sigh of relief from many Indian women. A journo accused a minister/fmr editor of sexual harassment (20+others then spoke out) & found herself in the docket
We owe a debt of gratitude to Priya Ramani & other women who speak out esp vs powerful men
3/ I hope this judgment holds because a different verdict would have sent a message to Indian women: don't speak up against sexual harassment because, among other things, you will be the target of lawfare.
India will be relatively pleased w/ Lloyd Austin's remarks/answers re China, India, Indo-Pacific at confirmation hearing. It'll be less pleased -- though not surprised since he's a fmr CENTCOM commander -- re his answers on Pakistan
1/ Secretary of Defense nominee Lloyd Austin at Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing:
"Globally I understand that Asia must be the focus of our effort and I see China in particular as a pacing challenge for the Department"
2/ SecDef nominee Lloyd Austin on advance policy Qs
"Globally...most significant challenge I will face will be to ensure DOD's contd efforts to prepare & strengthen the US military for a dynamic, future security landscape driven by accelerating competitions w China & w Russia.."
3/ SecDef nominee Austin in written answers says strategic competition w/ China & Russia primary challenges but "because of its ascent and the scope and scale of its military modernization, China is the top priority"