๐Ÿงต for the many Quad newbies, who will be joining us this week due to the ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ summit. 1/

For a quick primer, here are a series of Quad charts
Part I: brook.gs/3jzZB52
Part II: brook.gs/2SFiAzo
Part III:
2/ Some articles on the Quad
Origins: bit.ly/3l3Mr1R
Significance: bit.ly/3rMhcdS
Promise: bit.ly/3rBEIu7
Progress: bit.ly/2NaFwaA
Potential areas of coop: HA/DR (bit.ly/38oaSBF), tech (bit.ly/2N52pfv, bit.ly/2N3BqRo)
3/ One thing expected from the upcoming Quad leaders summit is a COVID19 vaccine initiative.

Idea is to put a positive foot forward, signal Quad is not just abt China, but also a value add for the Indo-Pacific

Relevant pieces
- on.ft.com/3qzjNGS
- reut.rs/3cycTNh
4/ Since Asia loves its three no's, five maybes, seven assurances or thereabouts, here are 6 "nots" w/r/t the Quad Image
5/ Better words for the Quad are "grouping" or "coalition."

Think abt it in the context of shift in Asia from a hub & spoke sys of alliances & partnerships to a spider web of relationships btwn various nodes. Like a web, it is not a finished product but continuing to be spun. Image
7/ Re a potential Quad vaccine initiative. There is some precedent of a coalition of like-mindeds assisting partner countries

Aid-India Consortium in 1950s-60s that brought together at various points US, UK, W Germany, Japan, Canada, Netherlands, IMF reps
8 ๐ŸŽง๐ŸŽ™ If you prefer to listen to podcasts, here's @lawfarepodcast episode on the Quad w/ Macquarie University's Lavina Lee & me podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/theโ€ฆ
9/ A few have asked about China's reaction to the Quad. It has yo-yo'd (e.g. see Wang Yi's stmts). Like with the grouping's critics more broadly, can categorize 2 reax as "not doing much" or "doing too much" Image
10/ Re tweet (4) above, @sid_ravishankar has pointed out that @SecBlinken used "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" in his testimony on the Hill. That's reverting to the 2007 name for it but ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต do not use QSD.

Maybe ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ can persuade them to embrace it. If it does, will update.
11/ TBHaren't even too many references from Quad 1.0-era official docs/stmts to "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue."

Recently ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต hv used other labels. Sthg to keep an eye/ear out for tmrw if there's a jt stmt
12/ Maybe an enterprising soul can track down the origin of "Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue" in the US & why it was used so infrequently.

Why didn't ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต use QSD? Probably to allay concerns in the region (& at home) that the grp was an Asian NATO or just security-focused

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More from @tanvi_madan

12 Mar
.@ryanl_hass: "Implicit in the structure of the [#Quad] agenda will be a recognition that the US & others will enjoy greater attraction & influence by delivering solutions to problems than by presenting opposition to China"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
.@ryanl_hass: "...If the coordinated efforts of the Quad countries spurs China to up its efforts to deliver solutions to regional challenges, thatโ€™s all to the better.โ€
bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Noone believes the Quad has nothing to do w/ China; & denials are only seen as "the Quad doth protest too much."

But there is a nuance here that Ryan alludes to -- the Quad is not about containing China; it *is* in part about shaping China's behavior.
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
๐Ÿงต Following up on the Quad ministerial held yesterday, a quick addition to my Quad charts, breaking down the readouts from Australia, India, Japan & the US. 1/
2/ The โ€œwhenโ€: this was the 3rd ministerial of the Quad, which was revived after a decade in 2017. Beyond these senior-level meetings, the Quad countries interact in various ways (see brook.gs/3blCOXQ). This was the first hi-level Quad meeting of the Biden administration.
3/ While there had been some questions abt the fate of the Quad, over the last few weeks, comments from Prez Biden on down (incl Austin, Blinken, Sullivan) hv indicated it is here to stay for now. At yda's ministerial, the countries agreed to an annual ministerial + addโ€™l mtgs
Read 10 tweets
17 Feb
.@StateDeptSpox says that tomorrow @SecBlinken will participate in a meeting with Quad counterparts and another with E3 counterparts (+EU foreign affairs council next week)

Feb. 18: ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ foreign ministers mtg #Quad
Feb. 18: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ foreign ministers mtg #E3 Image
2/ @MEAIndia statement re Quad meeting tomorrow
mea.gov.in/press-releasesโ€ฆ Image
3/ For folks new to the Quad, re-upping these charts
Part I: brook.gs/3jzZB52
Part II: brook.gs/2SFiAzo

(has been some activity since the last ministerial in October including bilats, trilats - incl w other partners - and a Quad+Canada ASW exercise) Image
Read 8 tweets
17 Feb
1/ That sound u hear is the huge sigh of relief from many Indian women. A journo accused a minister/fmr editor of sexual harassment (20+others then spoke out) & found herself in the docket

We owe a debt of gratitude to Priya Ramani & other women who speak out esp vs powerful men
2/ More context in this piece.

Priya Ramani: "I spoke because women before me spoke up...I spoke so people after me can speak up."

nytimes.com/2021/02/17/worโ€ฆ
3/ I hope this judgment holds because a different verdict would have sent a message to Indian women: don't speak up against sexual harassment because, among other things, you will be the target of lawfare.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
India will be relatively pleased w/ Lloyd Austin's remarks/answers re China, India, Indo-Pacific at confirmation hearing. It'll be less pleased -- though not surprised since he's a fmr CENTCOM commander -- re his answers on Pakistan
Source: answers submitted to Senate Armed Services Cmte advance policy questions armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/โ€ฆ
For reference: Mattis's answers to advance policy questions on Pakistan ahead of his 2017 confirmation hearing
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
1/ Secretary of Defense nominee Lloyd Austin at Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing:

"Globally I understand that Asia must be the focus of our effort and I see China in particular as a pacing challenge for the Department"
2/ SecDef nominee Lloyd Austin on advance policy Qs

"Globally...most significant challenge I will face will be to ensure DOD's contd efforts to prepare & strengthen the US military for a dynamic, future security landscape driven by accelerating competitions w China & w Russia.."
3/ SecDef nominee Austin in written answers says strategic competition w/ China & Russia primary challenges but "because of its ascent and the scope and scale of its military modernization, China is the top priority"
Read 25 tweets

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