For almost a whole year the number of #covid19 cases per 100,000 people was higher in the US than in Germany.
That changed this weekend:
Of course, there may be differences in how many infections were missed in each country at different time points and there were some days in winter when deaths per population were actually higher in Germany:
But the basic point is:
The US through naturally acquired immunity and through more than 120 million administered vaccine doses has reached a point where control has become easier.
The same is happening in Germany in coming months.
But we need to be prudent and hold steady a couple of months more.
So far, we have seen far fewer deaths in this pandemic than the US, little more than half the number of deaths per million people.
That is what we are trying to protect now.
(I accidentally wrote "cases per 100,000 people" in the first tweet, when the graph shows cases per million people.
Pattern is exactly the same of course, just remember this when you look at the y axis.)

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More from @kakape

23 Mar
Yesterday morning:
great results from large trial of AZ‘s #covid19 vaccine
Yesterday evening:
DSMB „expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data“
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
This whole pandemic is a rollercoaster I would like to get off, but AstraZeneca sure look like they are intent on sending us through a few extra loops and dips while we‘re on it...
AstraZeneca have issued a statement on the DSMB’s concerns now incl. this beautiful example of clear crisis communication:

"We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis." Image
Read 13 tweets
22 Mar
“An estimated 1.4 million fewer people received care for TB in 2020, compared with 2019”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser, noting that it’s #WorldTBDay tomorrow and that #covid19 has disrupted services. “We fear that more than half a million more people may have died. "
@DrTedros @WHO “In January, I said that the world was on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure unless urgent steps were taken to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines”, says @DrTedros. “We have the means to avert this failure. But it's shocking how little has been done to avert it.”
@DrTedros @WHO "Countries that are now vaccinating younger, healthy people at low risk of disease are doing so at the cost of the lives of health workers, older people, and other at risk groups, in other countries”, says @DrTedros.
Read 19 tweets
22 Mar
The first day of what will no doubt be a busy #covid19 week, started with some good news for AstraZeneca.
Results from the large trial in the Americas show AZ vaccine has 79% efficacy at preventing symptomatic #covid19.
Story here, few thoughts to come:
sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/a…
Caveat first:
Like most early vaccine results in this pandemic this is based solely on a press release by the company.
There are some big holes in what we know so far and I am getting pretty fed up with the dearth of data reported in these releases.
Companies need to do better.
The good news:
This was a well-designed trial with more than 32,000 participants and it shows strong protection from symptomatic #Covid19.
"I’m thrilled”, @ashishkjha told me. “This is the vaccine that I had always assumed would vaccinate a large chunk of the world.”
Read 9 tweets
21 Mar
Die neue Folge @pandemiapodcast ist da und wir hatten das Bedürfnis ausnahmsweise mal wieder über die Situation in Deutschland zu sprechen, übers Impfen, Testen und Lockern.
Episode ist hier und zur Begleitung ein kurzer Thread:
viertausendhertz.de/pan20/
@pandemiapodcast Wir haben uns ja bewusst entschieden mit dem Podcast quasi knapp an der Pandemie vorbei zu zielen und vor allem über andere Krankheiten und andere Orte zu sprechen. Weil dieser Kontext so wichtig ist und hilft, das Hier und Jetzt zu verstehen - und besser zu verarbeiten.
@pandemiapodcast Aber manchmal verlangt das Hier und Jetzt halt Aufmerksamkeit:
Wir sind am Anfang einer dritten Welle - mit Ansage.
Viele Forscher sind dementsprechend müde und desillusioniert. “Das ist frustrierend”, sagt @CorneliaBetsch. Andere Menschen, mit denen ich spreche, geht es genauso
Read 7 tweets
18 Mar
"The committee has come to a clear scientific conclusion: This is a safe and effective vaccine. Its benefits in protecting people from #COVID19 with the associated risks of death and hospitalization outweigh the possible risks”, says Emer Cooke at @EMA_News press conference.
@EMA_News "The committee also concluded that the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of thrombo embolic events or blood clots”, says Cooke.
@EMA_News "During the investigation and review we began to see a small number of cases of rare and unusual but very serious clotting disorders, and this then triggered a more focused review based on the evidence available”, says Cooke.
Read 17 tweets
18 Mar
EMA press conference on AstraZeneca safety signal is scheduled for 16.00 for now.

Just to give you an idea of what I will be looking out for, here are a few questions I would love to have answers to (and I don’t expect we can answer all of them already):
- Is there a significantly elevated number of people with the described clinical picture (widespread blood clotting, low platelet count, cerebral venous thrombosis) amongst vaccinees?
- Are there other things that unite them?
- Is there a common diagnosis? HUS, DIC, something?
- Is the age and gender distribution amongst cases unusual or in line with who was given the vaccine?
- Are most or all of the cases linked to a specific manufacturing plant?
- Any data on what treatments may have worked or not worked in these patients?
Read 4 tweets

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