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Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
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23 Mar, 13 tweets, 6 min read
Yesterday morning:
great results from large trial of AZ‘s #covid19 vaccine
Yesterday evening:
DSMB „expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data“
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
This whole pandemic is a rollercoaster I would like to get off, but AstraZeneca sure look like they are intent on sending us through a few extra loops and dips while we‘re on it...
AstraZeneca have issued a statement on the DSMB’s concerns now incl. this beautiful example of clear crisis communication:

"We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis."
As far as I can parse this:
Results yesterday were interim analysis based on data with cut-off point February 17.
More up to date data is coming in form of the primary analysis within 48 hours and should not look all that different…
Let’s wait and see…

astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…
Tony Fauci talking about this now on @GMA:
DSMB "wrote a rather harsh note to them and with a copy to me saying that in fact they felt that the data that was in the press release, were somewhat outdated and might in fact be misleading a bit, and wanted them to straighten it out."
@GMA Fauci: “It really is unfortunate that this happened. You know this is really what you call an unforced error, because the fact is, this is very likely a very good vaccine and this kind of thing does as you say do nothing, but really cast some doubt about the vaccines …"
@GMA “It was not necessary”, says Fauci. "If you look at it, the data really are quite good. But when they put it into the press release it wasn't completely accurate.”

goodmorningamerica.com/news/video/fau…
@GMA Fauci just called me as well and clarified the concerns:
“It appears that they [AZ] may have been using the most favorable data, and the DSMB wanted to make sure that they corrected that..."
@GMA He also clarified what happened with the press release:
The NIH had modelled their press release announcing the results on the AZ press release. So when the DSMB raised concerns about that data, they felt they had to make this public too.
A few noteworthy reactions.
Here‘s @EricTopol first:
And @ashishkjha:
So, @washingtonpost has the letter that the DSMB sent to AZ and US officials and it looks like we may be talking about 69-74% efficacy for the vaccine instead of 79%.
If that‘s true: Were those short-lived extra 5-10% really worth all this, AstraZeneca?

washingtonpost.com/world/astrazen…
Also, always read @HelenBranswell (that goes for twitter too)...

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More from @kakape

Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
24 Mar
I keep hearing that loosening restrictions earlier this month in Germany was necessary because of “pandemic fatigue”.

I don’t think that is true.
And if loosening restrictions was supposed to make things better, it didn’t.
It made them worse.

So a brief thread about fatigue
Yes, I am fatigued.
So are the people around me.
Fatigue means you are doing something that is hard.
And what we have all been doing is hard.
But that I am fatigued does not mean that I want the government to give up fighting this pandemic.
Quite the opposite.
I want the government to acknowledge that this is hard.
I want them to motivate me by giving the reasons that we need to keep doing this.
I want them to make it easier for me to keep doing this.

And I want them to do what they can to make sure this ends as soon as possible.
Read 6 tweets
Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
22 Mar
“An estimated 1.4 million fewer people received care for TB in 2020, compared with 2019”, says @drtedros at @WHO presser, noting that it’s #WorldTBDay tomorrow and that #covid19 has disrupted services. “We fear that more than half a million more people may have died. "
@DrTedros @WHO “In January, I said that the world was on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure unless urgent steps were taken to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines”, says @drtedros. “We have the means to avert this failure. But it's shocking how little has been done to avert it.”
@DrTedros @WHO "Countries that are now vaccinating younger, healthy people at low risk of disease are doing so at the cost of the lives of health workers, older people, and other at risk groups, in other countries”, says @DrTedros.
Read 19 tweets
Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
22 Mar
The first day of what will no doubt be a busy #covid19 week, started with some good news for AstraZeneca.
Results from the large trial in the Americas show AZ vaccine has 79% efficacy at preventing symptomatic #covid19.
Story here, few thoughts to come:
sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/a…
Caveat first:
Like most early vaccine results in this pandemic this is based solely on a press release by the company.
There are some big holes in what we know so far and I am getting pretty fed up with the dearth of data reported in these releases.
Companies need to do better.
The good news:
This was a well-designed trial with more than 32,000 participants and it shows strong protection from symptomatic #Covid19.
"I’m thrilled”, @ashishkjha told me. “This is the vaccine that I had always assumed would vaccinate a large chunk of the world.”
Read 9 tweets
Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
21 Mar
For almost a whole year the number of #covid19 cases per 100,000 people was higher in the US than in Germany.
That changed this weekend:
Of course, there may be differences in how many infections were missed in each country at different time points and there were some days in winter when deaths per population were actually higher in Germany:
But the basic point is:
The US through naturally acquired immunity and through more than 120 million administered vaccine doses has reached a point where control has become easier.
The same is happening in Germany in coming months.
Read 5 tweets
Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
21 Mar
Die neue Folge @pandemiapodcast ist da und wir hatten das Bedürfnis ausnahmsweise mal wieder über die Situation in Deutschland zu sprechen, übers Impfen, Testen und Lockern.
Episode ist hier und zur Begleitung ein kurzer Thread:
viertausendhertz.de/pan20/
@pandemiapodcast Wir haben uns ja bewusst entschieden mit dem Podcast quasi knapp an der Pandemie vorbei zu zielen und vor allem über andere Krankheiten und andere Orte zu sprechen. Weil dieser Kontext so wichtig ist und hilft, das Hier und Jetzt zu verstehen - und besser zu verarbeiten.
@pandemiapodcast Aber manchmal verlangt das Hier und Jetzt halt Aufmerksamkeit:
Wir sind am Anfang einer dritten Welle - mit Ansage.
Viele Forscher sind dementsprechend müde und desillusioniert. “Das ist frustrierend”, sagt @CorneliaBetsch. Andere Menschen, mit denen ich spreche, geht es genauso
Read 7 tweets
Kai Kupferschmidt Profile picture
18 Mar
"The committee has come to a clear scientific conclusion: This is a safe and effective vaccine. Its benefits in protecting people from #COVID19 with the associated risks of death and hospitalization outweigh the possible risks”, says Emer Cooke at @EMA_News press conference.
@EMA_News "The committee also concluded that the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of thrombo embolic events or blood clots”, says Cooke.
@EMA_News "During the investigation and review we began to see a small number of cases of rare and unusual but very serious clotting disorders, and this then triggered a more focused review based on the evidence available”, says Cooke.
Read 17 tweets

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