The first day of what will no doubt be a busy #covid19 week, started with some good news for AstraZeneca.
Results from the large trial in the Americas show AZ vaccine has 79% efficacy at preventing symptomatic #covid19.
Story here, few thoughts to come:
sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/a…
Caveat first:
Like most early vaccine results in this pandemic this is based solely on a press release by the company.
There are some big holes in what we know so far and I am getting pretty fed up with the dearth of data reported in these releases.
Companies need to do better.
The good news:
This was a well-designed trial with more than 32,000 participants and it shows strong protection from symptomatic #Covid19.
"I’m thrilled”, @ashishkjha told me. “This is the vaccine that I had always assumed would vaccinate a large chunk of the world.”
@ashishkjha About 1 in 5 participants in this trial were over 65, so this is good data on efficacy in older people.
And there were 141 cases of symptomatic #covid19 overall which is a decent number.
@ashishkjha The press release also points out that in the more than 20,000 people that received the vaccine no case of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) was found.
That’s good. But given the safety signal in Europe you wouldn’t really expect 1 in 20,000 so this does not tell us much.
@ashishkjha And then, annoyingly, the company claims "100% efficacy at preventing severe disease and hospitalisation”.
But it does not give any other numbers on this. Without knowing whether it was 1 case in the placebo group or 10 or 15, it’s hard to know what “100%” really means.
@ashishkjha “Not reporting how many of these events happened in the placebo group is probably very misleading,” @hildabast told me. "Encouraging people to think they have perfect protection from serious harm if they are vaccinated is a terribly risky message”
Hopefully we will have data soon
Was just made aware of this bit of info which was not in the press release:
So apparently 5 cases of severe #covid19 in placebo group, none in vaccine group.

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More from @kakape

24 Mar
I keep hearing that loosening restrictions earlier this month in Germany was necessary because of “pandemic fatigue”.

I don’t think that is true.
And if loosening restrictions was supposed to make things better, it didn’t.
It made them worse.

So a brief thread about fatigue
Yes, I am fatigued.
So are the people around me.
Fatigue means you are doing something that is hard.
And what we have all been doing is hard.
But that I am fatigued does not mean that I want the government to give up fighting this pandemic.
Quite the opposite.
I want the government to acknowledge that this is hard.
I want them to motivate me by giving the reasons that we need to keep doing this.
I want them to make it easier for me to keep doing this.

And I want them to do what they can to make sure this ends as soon as possible.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
Yesterday morning:
great results from large trial of AZ‘s #covid19 vaccine
Yesterday evening:
DSMB „expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data“
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
This whole pandemic is a rollercoaster I would like to get off, but AstraZeneca sure look like they are intent on sending us through a few extra loops and dips while we‘re on it...
AstraZeneca have issued a statement on the DSMB’s concerns now incl. this beautiful example of clear crisis communication:

"We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis." Image
Read 13 tweets
22 Mar
“An estimated 1.4 million fewer people received care for TB in 2020, compared with 2019”, says @drtedros at @WHO presser, noting that it’s #WorldTBDay tomorrow and that #covid19 has disrupted services. “We fear that more than half a million more people may have died. "
@DrTedros @WHO “In January, I said that the world was on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure unless urgent steps were taken to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines”, says @drtedros. “We have the means to avert this failure. But it's shocking how little has been done to avert it.”
@DrTedros @WHO "Countries that are now vaccinating younger, healthy people at low risk of disease are doing so at the cost of the lives of health workers, older people, and other at risk groups, in other countries”, says @DrTedros.
Read 19 tweets
21 Mar
For almost a whole year the number of #covid19 cases per 100,000 people was higher in the US than in Germany.
That changed this weekend:
Of course, there may be differences in how many infections were missed in each country at different time points and there were some days in winter when deaths per population were actually higher in Germany:
But the basic point is:
The US through naturally acquired immunity and through more than 120 million administered vaccine doses has reached a point where control has become easier.
The same is happening in Germany in coming months.
Read 5 tweets
21 Mar
Die neue Folge @pandemiapodcast ist da und wir hatten das Bedürfnis ausnahmsweise mal wieder über die Situation in Deutschland zu sprechen, übers Impfen, Testen und Lockern.
Episode ist hier und zur Begleitung ein kurzer Thread:
viertausendhertz.de/pan20/
@pandemiapodcast Wir haben uns ja bewusst entschieden mit dem Podcast quasi knapp an der Pandemie vorbei zu zielen und vor allem über andere Krankheiten und andere Orte zu sprechen. Weil dieser Kontext so wichtig ist und hilft, das Hier und Jetzt zu verstehen - und besser zu verarbeiten.
@pandemiapodcast Aber manchmal verlangt das Hier und Jetzt halt Aufmerksamkeit:
Wir sind am Anfang einer dritten Welle - mit Ansage.
Viele Forscher sind dementsprechend müde und desillusioniert. “Das ist frustrierend”, sagt @CorneliaBetsch. Andere Menschen, mit denen ich spreche, geht es genauso
Read 7 tweets
18 Mar
"The committee has come to a clear scientific conclusion: This is a safe and effective vaccine. Its benefits in protecting people from #COVID19 with the associated risks of death and hospitalization outweigh the possible risks”, says Emer Cooke at @EMA_News press conference.
@EMA_News "The committee also concluded that the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of thrombo embolic events or blood clots”, says Cooke.
@EMA_News "During the investigation and review we began to see a small number of cases of rare and unusual but very serious clotting disorders, and this then triggered a more focused review based on the evidence available”, says Cooke.
Read 17 tweets

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