Waiting patiently. Day 59 of the #Bitcoin Cycle with a looming Cycle Low in focus. Day 50 bull trap behind us.
This is my preferred look at what's possibly coming up.
Lows can dip further than expected, and to be bought. Otherwise buy ATH break. (Traders)
"IF"
If we get another 60-day Cycle that continues Oct-20 trend to $80k-$100k, then I believe we're going top with sizable 40-50% correction, that takes MANY (4-6) months to consolidate.
The entire 60-day cycle gain would be erased. Prefer 60-day consolidation from this point
And in such a scenario, I will be forced to sell 15% of my $BTC. 🙊
1/. Stock markets are surging on “Corona news is better than modelled”.
The amount of deaths is irrelevant to a pricing system, only the perceived economic impact.
2/. This “Hope” that we can get back to normal sooner will likely last a while longer, as we are still early in the Cycle. (Recent March lows marked new cycle).
3/. Going further out though, recurrences of #coronavirus popping up in the US and throughout the world will lead to rather shutdowns and slowdowns. The cumulative disruptions will cause a real drag on economies and therefore, earnings.
#Covid_19 is clearly fast spreading and packs a punch. Not debating how we're choosing to fight it, but the world is committed now to "social distancing" and economic aid.
1/
2/ The bright side is apparently the China model, 45 days in Wuhan and the numbers peaked, now virtually free of new cases!!
The world is projecting a similar 30 day period (flatten the curve) and we're BBQing in the spring.
3/ Problem is, the West is not disciplined like China...far from it. They were able to contain this b/c of draconian measured imposed on all residents.
Do you think the Chinese fought #corona like this?
Once we see Bitcoin > $150k ($3T market cap), with broad institutional participation, ETF's, retirement money, which is then followed by a working layer 2 payments capability, Bitcoin will become enough of an establishment threat for them to attack.
Expect heavy and coordinated regulation and/or outlawing of Bitcoin. This will become the next bull market top and bear market catalyst. Circa 2021.
Bitcoin suffers a prolong and sustained bear market as a result. 2021-2026. Completing the first 16-yr Cycle.
Talking a lot off the table at the next top will be extremely important.