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Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
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23 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Murky morning in Jerusalem as #IsraElex4 begins. Hitting the road
Har Nof, Jerusalem. Rabbi Ovadya Yosef’s shul
Tiv Ta’am Ashdod. Less than an hour away from Rav Ovadya’s shul in Jerusalem but Israeli sociological terms light years away.
Cafe Roger, Ashkelon
Roger Hatab: “It hurts me, how Bibi has destroyed people but we’ll always vote for him. If he’d move to the US he’d be elected president”

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More from @AnshelPfeffer

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
24 Mar
Netanyahu on stage with Sara. Forced smiles. He doesn’t look very happy. He’ll proclaim victory anyway, despite not having a majority by now in any of the updated exit-polls.
Netanyahu: “We’re here tonight to say to you thank you from the depths of our hearts (long list of functionaries). Tonight we’ve made Likud the largest party in Israel by a very large margin (basic maths on margin between Likud and Yesh Atid) “the media doesn’t like to say this”
Netanyahu: More self-congratulatory talk on how “we brought vaccines for everyone” and how “we need to continue standing up to Iran and to the ICC” and “bring more peace accords with Arab states, peace for peace, not peace for uprooting Jews” so far sounds like his stump speech.
Read 8 tweets
Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
23 Mar
A few more thoughts on the exit-polls. Netanyahu just tweeted thanking Israeli citizens for “a massive win for the right and the Likud under my leadership.” He may have won, but he knows it’s still to early to call. He needs to establish a victory narrative as soon as possible>
Netanyahu’s majority may grow in the actual results, but there’s still a considerable chance it shrinks and all it takes is one less seat for his bloc and it’s stalemate again. And even if he has his majority, it’s a coalition of 61 headaches where every MK has a gun to his head>
The first thing Netanyahu will do after his victory speech (actually, he’s already trying to do it now) is to find more sources of support, beyond his “bloc”. He needs some leeway if he doesn’t want to blackmailed daily by his “natural partners”, he needs some news ones. But who?
Read 10 tweets
Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
23 Mar
Channel 11 exit poll
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 6
RZ 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
B&W 7
Meretz 6
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority
Channel 12 exit poll
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
UTJ 6
Yamina 8
New Hope 6
RZ 7
Lieberman 6
Labor 7
B&W 7
Meretz 6
Joint List 9
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority
Channel 13 exit poll
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 5
RZ 6
Lieberman 8
Labor 7
B&W 8
Meretz 7
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority
Read 10 tweets
Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
10 Mar
12 days to #IsraElex4 and it looks like too many things have to go right for the opposition for Netanyahu to lose. Incredibly though his popularity is at a nadir, he’s still played a blinder in setting up his campaign while the opposition (with the exception of Lapid) is flailing
Netanyahu’s campaign has failed in some respects. Success in vaccination hasn’t translated to Likud votes, but his genius as a campaigner is never to focus just on his own party. He’s played his opponents brilliantly, ensuring they remain too divided to mount a joint front.
Netanyahu’s campaign began on March 4 last year, 2 days after the last election, when he realized he had failed once again to gain a majority for an immunity coalition. That’s when he began fighting #IsraElex4 which he always intended would come sooner rather than later
Read 16 tweets
Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
22 Dec 20
THREAD Last night’s vote against delaying the budget deadline means nothing can stop the Knesset dissolving @ midnight. Election on 23.3. I explained in @haaretzcom last month why Netanyahu doesn’t want a March election. Too many factors beyond his control
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…
A March election means the campaign will be dominated by 3 events beyond Netanyahu’s control: 1. 3rd wave of covid crashing down on Israel before vaccines have an impact 2. From January 20, a much less friendly administration in the US 3. Early February his bribery trial resumes
Netanyahu’s biggest advantage is that he’s going in to the election serving PM with control over the critical finance and health ministries. Gantz and his B&W ministers will remain in office but have much less power as discredited members of a zombie party
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…
Read 10 tweets
Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר Profile picture
8 Dec 20
Gideon Saar, ex-minister, Likud MK, a former cabinet secretary of Netanyahu’s and the only Likudnik to challenge him in recent years, is expected to announce tonight he’s forming a new right-wing party.
Saar came first three times in Likud’s primaries for the Knesset slate but lost to Netanyahu last year in the leadership primary winning only 27.5 percent of the vote. Nevertheless, his departure is a major blow, and a significant addition to the right-wing’s anti-Netanyahu bloc.
If early elections are held, a Saar-led party would weaken Likud and increase the likelihood of someone other than Netanyahu forming the next government. It could also, conceivably, increase the pretty slim chances of an alternative coalition being formed without another election
Read 8 tweets

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