Thread by @AnshelPfeffer

A few more thoughts on the exit-polls. Netanyahu just tweeted thanking Israeli citizens for “a massive win for the right and the Likud under my leadership.” He may have won, but he knows it’s still to early to call. He needs to establish a victory narrative as soon as possible>

Netanyahu’s majority may grow in the actual results, but there’s still a considerable chance it shrinks and all it takes is one less seat for his bloc and it’s stalemate again. And even if he has his majority, it’s a coalition of 61 headaches where every MK has a gun to his head>

The first thing Netanyahu will do after his victory speech (actually, he’s already trying to do it now) is to find more sources of support, beyond his “bloc”. He needs some leeway if he doesn’t want to blackmailed daily by his “natural partners”, he needs some news ones. But who?

Sa’ar just announced “we will stick to our commitment not to enter a government lead by Netanyahu.” Gantz won’t make the same mistake again. Lieberman has burnt his bridges to Bibi long ago. So where will Netanyahu find alternative partners? He’s already looking for defectors>

Last thought for now about Netanyahu. Likud won 36 seats a year ago. The exit-polls now give Likud 31-33 seats. Despite Netanyahu’s vaccination success, Likud has lost at least 10 percent. Not much of an endorsement (one caveat, some Likudniks voted RZ with Bibi’s blessing)>

You’ve got to give it to Lapid. He ran a professional and disciplined campaign, didn’t allow Netanyahu to drag him in to a fight on his terms and helped the center-left parties on the brink. That bit of his plan worked too well and Yesh Atid has yet to break the 20-seat ceiling>

Lapid has cemented his standing as undisputed leader of the opposition but he still hasn’t got any real prospect of serving as alternative PM. The best he can hope for now is denying Netanyahu a majority and forcing another election. And for the 1st time Bibi doesn’t want that>

In the aftermath of the previous 3 elections, a stalemate worked in Netanyahu’s favor. He remained interim PM and got another throw of the dice at winning a majority. This time around, there will be another factor at play. The prosecution witnesses start testifying in 12 days>

Netanyahu’s trial was barely mentioned during the #IsraElex4 campaign. It was all about how he (mis)handled covid. But over the next few months, the most damaging revelations will start coming out from the witness stand and will overshadow a 5th election (if one takes place)>

One very interesting feature of next Knesset. Besides Likud and Yesh Atid, all the other ten parties will have 6-9 MKs. This means that whatever government is formed, if any, every party in it will have the power to bring it down. 5th election seems almost inevitable before long.