1) The #pandemic is once again surging in the Capitale-Nationale region of Quebec as it had last September, but this time it’s the more contagious variants — and not a karaoke bar — that’s driving the transmission. In this thread, I will focus on the regions beyond Montreal.
2) On March 21, the region that includes the provincial capital recorded 35 #COVID19 cases. By Sunday, that number more than tripled to 114. Also on Sunday, Quebec’s public health institute noted an increase of 94 variant cases in this region. Please see the chart below.
3) In the past two days alone, at least 13 schools in the Quebec City area announced they had suspected or confirmed variant cases, according to covidecolesquebec.org, which has been providing timelier updates on the variants than the Education Ministry.
4) What’s more, #COVID19 admissions have been creeping up in three of Capitale-Nationale’s four hospitals. And within the past 24 hours, an outbreak at the CHSLD Alphonse-Bonenfant added two more infections among residents for a total of eight.
5) The neighboring Chaudière-Appalaches region has gone from posting six #COVID19 cases on March 21 to 48 by Sunday. It also declared 68 more variant cases. Some other regions, all of them currently zoned orange on the #pandemic alert scale, are observing increases, too.
6) Technically, the Outaouais region bordering Ontario (clearly in a third wave) should have gone from orange to red by now, given its rising transmission. The same could apply to Chaudière-Appalaches. We’ll see whether authorities change those regions to red in the coming days.
7) For four days in a row, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks across the province has increased. On Sunday, the total climbed by nine to 649, with clusters rising by six to 300 in the workplace. The health care (71) and daycare (80) sectors each reported one new outbreak.
8) Although cases are climbing in outlying regions, Montreal has remained in a #COVID19 plateau for the past 29 days. The city on Sunday posted 280 cases, down from 367 the day before. Please take a look at the chart below.
9) Meanwhile, nearly 46,000 Quebecers were vaccinated on Saturday. Thus far, 14.4% of Quebec’s population has been partially vaccinated. Unlike the other provinces and territories, Quebec is not providing data on full vaccination. Please view the chart below.
10) Health Minister Christian Dubé noted earlier Sunday that there were some open vaccination slots in Montreal for those who are at least 60 years old. Perhaps it’s time to consider lowering the age threshold to 55. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

28 Mar
1) Two surveys were released this week showing Quebecers’ growing frustration with public health measures in the #pandemic, just as the province confronts a third wave driven by the more contagious variants. In this thread, I will delve into the implications of this weariness.
2) A survey by Quebec’s public health institute found that 57% of Quebecers would find it “very difficult” to cope with #pandemic measures for another six months, up from 55% two weeks ago. And a CROP survey found mounting resentment toward restrictions.
3) Premier François Legault suggested Friday he was open to reversing some of his latest loosening of restrictions. But he added: “We need to have a balance if we want the population to follow the measures we put in place. If we’re too strong, too hard, we may lose everybody.”
Read 14 tweets
27 Mar
1) Premier François Legault flip-flopped Friday, acknowledging Quebec is in the “beginning of a third wave” in the #pandemic only three days after insisting the opposite. Unlike previous waves, more contagious variants of the #coronavirus are to blame here and across Canada.
2) For much of the #pandemic, British Columbia has managed to keep transmission of the #coronavirus relatively low. But on Friday, B.C. authorities confirmed 215 cases of the P.1 variant, the same strain that is causing massive deaths in Brazil. Quebec so far has one P.1 case.
3) Meanwhile, Ontario on Friday declared it has 58 cases of P.1, up by four from the previous day. In total, Ontario has 1,612 confirmed variant infections, more than double the tally in Quebec. And like B.C., #COVID19 hospitalizations in Ontario are on the upswing. See below.
Read 10 tweets
26 Mar
1) Breaking: the more transmissible #COVID19 variants are already the predominant strain in some regions of Quebec, according to the province’s public health institute.
2) The reproductive rate of the variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising.
3) At present, 85% of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be of the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.
Read 4 tweets
26 Mar
1) In my @mtlgazette column tonight, I raise the question as to whether Quebec might be at the start of a third wave, where Ontario finds itself. In this thread, I'll elaborate on this possibility on the eve of Quebec’s loosening of #pandemic restrictions. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec observed two noticeable hikes Thursday: 945 #COVID19 cases, up from 783 the day before; and 314 new presumptive variant cases, the highest to date. What’s also noteworthy are the increases in regions across the province.
3) The Bas-Saint-Laurent posted 46 #COVID19 infections, up from 11 the previous day. This region also counted five more presumptive variant cases. The Outaouais, which is at risk of returning to red zone status, declared 51 more presumptive variant cases.
Read 10 tweets
25 Mar
1) COVID-19 outbreaks involving the more transmissible variants are on the rise in Montreal, while those linked to the older coronavirus strains are decreasing, the latest weekly report by the city’s public health department shows. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) What’s more, authorities have confirmed two cases of a fourth variant in Montreal, B.1.525, which arose in Nigeria and carries some of the same mutations as the B.1.1.7 strain. Previously, there was speculation Montreal might have had a strain from California.
3) On Feb. 12, British Columbia announced one case of B.1.525 associated with travel to Nigeria. This variant has been circulating in New York City, according to the New York Times. I have been unable to find other cases of B.1.525 elsewhere in Canada.
Read 10 tweets
24 Mar
1) Since late last week, the number of Quebec schools that have closed due to #COVID19 — most likely the variants — has jumped by 17 to 23. In this thread, I will assess Premier François Legault’s decision to let high school students in red zones resume full-time classes. Image
2) In addition to the temporary school closures, 232 more classrooms have been shuttered — for a total of 880, according to the latest chart by the Quebec Education Ministry. And on Tuesday, the number of #COVID19 school outbreaks rose by five to 106. Image
3) There is nothing to suggest that #COVID19 is subsiding in schools. In fact, as of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, seven more schools in Quebec announced that they have suspected variant cases, according to the dependable covidecolesquebec.org. Image
Read 13 tweets

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