Mori Profile picture
28 Mar, 17 tweets, 4 min read
This kind of thing is honestly why I don't think Chinese dissidents will succeed.

It's not a moral statement. I'm coming at it from a #marketing point of view.
1. You have an EXTREMELY narrow window of attention from the average person and must make a memorable, coherent statement in that time.

What's it gonna be?

"China bad"?

"Don't trust the CCP but trust us, we're not like those other Chinese"?

"Human rights good"?
1 is self-defeating.

2 is automatically suspect.

3 is ill-defined and opens you up to the criticism that you've been overly Westernized.

There is no hand to play that doesn't look lame to a neutral bystander.
2. Nobody WANTS to believe this.

People want to believe in power as just, or reasonable, or accessible.

Power in this case is China. The reward for believing in China is access to the world's largest market.

The reward for believing dissidents is access to a few tiny islands.
Sure, there are countries like the US (a formal ally of Taiwan) that want to believe in human rights and the goodness of all people and the wickedness of communism.

But the US is not a neutral party.

The purpose of #marketing is to win over neutral parties.
3. The stakes here are nuclear war.

Even IF you get buy-in from a majority of people in Australia, North America, Europe, Africa - so what?

They can't seriously interfere without potentially triggering a global nuclear war.

Your ask is too high.

The key to all historically successful rights campaigns - women's suffrage, gay marriage, trans rights - is convincing people that it will cost them NOTHING to grant you rights.

It's never true, but your success depends on this fiction.

That is completely off the table here.
4. Aside - I often see activists in the US criticizing, say, Malaysia, arguing that the Asian Islamic community has not done enough to make China's actions internationally unacceptable.

I'm disagree; I think the acts of Malaysia and other countries are sophisticated and wise.
The world does not operate on some kind of benign rule of free speech everywhere. The Chinese even have a saying, "you can eat as you please, but you can't just say anything as you please."

If you live in Asia and piss off China, can you bear the consequences?
Remember that a country is not a person. A person can piss off the government of China, flee to London, and use his advanced degree and sympathetic connections to have a decent lifestyle.

An entire country cannot get up and leave.
So again: what are the BENEFITS to believing the tales of genocide, versus the DEMERITS?

If you believe, even if you wage holy war, can you change the outcome?

Only idiots announce their beliefs publicly and take no action.
Indonesia isn't strong enough for that right now. Malaysia isn't strong enough for that. Singapore isn't strong enough. Taiwan isn't strong enough; that's why they want help in the first place!

So the Asian community waits, and gathers strength.
And this is without even going into the reasons to doubt. Some of the witnesses are apparently tainted by connection to the CIA or other agencies, which is not helping the international coalition building at all.
If you already don't want to ruin your country for justice, how much less do you want to ruin it to be a pawn of the American elite?

Do you really think no one was paying attention to the Iraq War?

If the US gov lied once for their interests, won't they possibly do it again?
I am not saying that I know for certain what is or isn't true.

Rather, all of the above reasons add up to a compelling argument for inaction in the short term, until more strength is acquired and until more information can be found on what is really going on.
And this argument MUST be overcome if you want anyone to take action.

It's a massive hurdle, and from a #marketing standpoint basically unwinnable except on the flimsiest "someone ought to do something!" level.

And so that's all you'll get.

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More from @moritheil

28 Mar
Whatever else may be said of China, I do not think they would station 25,000 troops in a city only to have taxi drivers murdered in broad daylight.

In fact, this reminds me of a story.
There was a town in China famous for its beautiful lakes, which drew a lot of tourists. This inspired a local gang leader to try to kidnap some foreigners for ransom.

As happens sometimes when conducting international negotiations for large sums of money, the deal fell through.
This resulted in a dead foreigner, which was COMPLETELY unacceptable to the government's plans to develop the area.

The Red Army was sent in. The commander was told to fix the problem. He was not told to respect anyone's rights. He was told to FIX THE PROBLEM.
Read 6 tweets
28 Mar
Rags to riches is nice for status but not power.

In China if you're a bureaucrat long enough you become a Party member, and if you do that well for a decade you become inner circle, and then you can order people killed.

What's the path to that in the US?
Same guy later in that thread claimed that the Kennedys (who ordered lobotomies and had them covered up) and Clintons (who may or may not have a 50+ body count) don't have REAL aristocratic power.

Sounds to me like they got away with way more than the average feudal lord 🤔
Why do people do this?

"I'm a free thinker, I think dangerous thoughts"

Followed by

"No you just can't criticize modernity, no way, that's BS and I'm muting this thread"
Read 16 tweets
26 Mar
The Ever Given is 200,000 tons of mostly steel. Steel takes 1.4×10^9 J per ton to melt.

The MOAB is 21,000 lbs, containing 18,500 lbs of explosive, with a reported cost of $170k. It has a yield of 4.6 x 10^10 joules.
Theoretically the explosive contents of 2 MOABs could be placed as charges, enabling the military to blast most of the ship up into the air. The wreckage would then rain down outside the canal.

This would cost only $300,000 for materials, and maybe $3 million in labor.

However!
As an astute reader points out, the canal is not built to handle explosions of this magnitude.

It might simply create an artificial salt lake, but it might also do many other things. At this point geological surveys get involved.

Read 6 tweets
6 Oct 20
High stakes means people are on the lookout for anything bad.

And honestly, if you get vetoed by one interviewer, you probably didn't vibe with them. That may or may not be "your fault" but you CAN work on being positive and high-energy.

Let me do a quick thread on #interviews.
I've done hundreds of interviews, both as interviewer and interviewee, and most people grossly misunderstand how #interviews work.

First off, an interview is human interaction.
This seems obvious but the point is, it's not a neutral infodump. It's a vibe check.

What that means is a little more complicated, because people are complicated.

If you are awesome and they can pick up on it, great! Unless they're insecure, in which case it goes against you.
Read 13 tweets
6 Oct 20
Learned a new word today: Bhimta.

No, not Bhima, the hero with a mace who sired Ghatotkacha, who threatened to kill an entire army and forced Karna to use a single-use astral weapon.

This is a social thing.
Have you ever wondered, when listening to someone describe a caste system, why the lower castes don't just defect?

I mean if it sucks that much, you'd take any other ticket out of town, right? That's the "economically rational" thing to do.
Well, they couldn't when India was ruled by Hindus, but apparently 500,000 Dalits did just that after the British took over.

Only, they couldn't quite decide what to be next.

Identity is tricky like that.
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct 20
From the perspective of biology this is maladaptive, but 99% of you are really not ready to hear that.

#UnpopularOpinion
In #biology, anything that increases your odds of offspring is beneficial and anything that decreases it is maladaptive.

The paradigm of "not settling for less" means that most women high earners have a substantially decreased chance of getting married and having kids.
Note that this decreased chance comes about by a variety of mechanisms - time/energy commitment to the business as well as increased standards for men.

Read 7 tweets

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