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Stuart Neilson Profile picture
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29 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Giving away money inflates property prices and harms communities. The "Rural Development Policy 2021-2025" has the potential to positively support town and rural development, or to do great harm.

Read it and take control.
gov.ie/en/publication…
"Allowing people to live and work in their own communities" is the OPPOSITE of (financially) encouraging "remote workers to come and work in rural Ireland". Both are stated as goals.
rte.ie/news/ireland/2…
Which will prevail?

"support the retention of skilled people in rural areas as well as attracting mobile talent to rural areas."

OR

"funding local authorities to market their areas to attract remote workers."
thejournal.ie/rural-plan-539…
Rural digital @thalianeilson, have a read.

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More from @StuartDNeilson

Stuart Neilson Profile picture
31 Mar
Caution meets wind.

Baseline NPHET modelling predicts a substantial rise in case in the next few months. Upper end predictions are for thousands of cases per day.

Vaccination rollout (18% of over 65s so far) will have little impact on illness and death in the short term. Image
"Our health system remains extremely fragile & health care workforce is exhausted following the most recent wave of infection. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital & critical care remains high & in the case of critical care, at levels greater than peak of the 2nd wave." Image
"The high starting point of 600 cases per day means that case numbers rise rapidly to over 2,000 per day within 4 weeks."
— Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - 29 March 2021.
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
Read 18 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
22 Dec 20
NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for 3 weeks, daily cases would reduce to 250-300/day. HOWEVER, releasing measures at that point would likely re-escalation in disease trajectory, such that 1,000 cases/day would be expected by mid-December."
gov.ie/en/collection/…
NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for SIX [instead of THREE week lockdown] weeks, case numbers would be reduced to 50-100/day, following which release of all measures (Re returning to 1.4) would result in cases not going over 300/day until early January 2021"
The reproduction number R is tied to neighbours - e.g. UK, Spain, France & Germany are largest travel links - but #Ireland imposed lockdown earlier, in October, reducing R moderatly and reducing transmission substantially. R compounds over time, small changes have large impact.
Read 6 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
21 Dec 20
During the next few weeks we can expect, at a minimum, 85,000 cases of coronavirus infection in #Ireland, 6,000 requiring hospital treatment for Covid-19, 700 requiring ICU treatment, and 500-1,000 of whom will die.
Assuming growth is 5.9%/day, continuing 14 days from a new lockdown imposed on 29 December, cases would peak at around 2,200 cases per day, around 10 January. If restrictions from 29 December had the same impact as Level 5 in October then incidence would fall to 90/day in April.
IHME has a more pessimistic projection with cases peaking at 6,800/day on 10 February, with a total of 1,700 deaths - i.e. almost doubling the existing number of deaths from Covid-19 over the winter.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=d…
Read 10 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
20 Dec 20
Anyone doubting the value of suppressing coronavirus, Belgium has recorded 18,545 deaths in a population of 11.6 million. One person in every 630 has died from Covid-19.

Estonia recorded just 174 deaths in 1.3 million - just 8% of the Belgian rate.
Countries that have taken STRONG and EARLY measures include Cambodia, Laos, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, China and most of Africa (shown on the same scale here) - with mortality rates 0.5% of the rate recorded by Belgium.

Why are we obstinately rejecting effective suppression?
WHO Step 1: "Mobilize all sectors and communities to ensure that every sector of government and society takes ownership of and participates in the response and in preventing cases through hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and individual-level physical distancing."
Read 10 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
20 Dec 20
Current trend in daily cases is (at least) a 5.9% per day (49% per week) rise, reaching 1,000 cases per day BEFORE the end of December.
NOTE that NPHET suggested re-imposition of lockdown if cases rose above 400 per day, and we are well over that threshold.
7 Dec: "Ireland could return to lockdown for 3 weeks if cases spike to over 400 per day over Christmas. NPHET has warned government that a “major increase” in socialisation could see 450 infection cases daily being diagnosed before the end of December."
irishmirror.ie/news/irish-new…
Today the data also supports a new structural break at 2 December, a reversal from falling rates to rising rates - close to the end of Level 5 lockdown.
Structural break analysis is an objective means of identifying shifts in gradient or magnitude (Dergiades et al, 2020).
Read 7 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
20 Dec 20
"The total net worth of 651 US billionaires rose from $2.95 trillion on March 18 — the start of the pandemic shutdowns — to $4.01 trillion on Dec. 7, a leap of 36%, according to Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) & the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS)"
americansfortaxfairness.org/wp-content/upl…
The $1 trillion wealth gain by 651 U.S. billionaires since mid-March is more than it would cost to send a stimulus check of $3,000 to every one of the roughly 330 million people in America.
The $1 trillion wealth gain by 651 U.S. billionaires since mid-March is double the two-year estimated budget gap of all state and local governments, which is forecast to be at least $500 billion.
Read 7 tweets

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