Huge thanks to #EconTwitter for engaging enthusiastically and constructively with this piece by Devesh Kapur and me on under-representation of developing country institutions in development economics.

Some preliminary ideas for taking discussion forward 1/
Important to point out that similar points have been made by others in the past (@gchelwa): 2/
Next, a clarification on people vs. place (made eg. by @dmckenzie001:

Research by dvlping country nationals is valuable but cannot substitute for knowledge-creation *IN* poor countries

And numbers on latter are too stark to not merit remedial action 3/
Huge thanks & kudos to @afosterri for putting out JDE data which seems to re-inforce our conclusions:

So, a first step could be for other journals, incl. @AEAjournals @QJEHarvard @restatjournal, @JPolEcon to follow @afosterri's terrific example 4/
Demand-side interventions could involve institutions such as @WorldBank, @IMFNews, @JPAL & major academic events-NEUDC, @nberpubs Summer Institute-targeting increased research, review, & participation by researchers from developing countries & monitoring this on ongoing basis 5/
Of course, supply-side actions will be necessary such as those suggested by @bill_easterly: . There will surely be others 6/
Above all, corrective action will need participation both by the powerful incumbent voices (economists & institutions) as well as those missing, namely researchers in developing countries.

No topic should be off-limits, incl. privileging of some research and methodologies n/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Arvind Subramanian

Arvind Subramanian Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @arvindsubraman

22 Dec 20
1/ Striking, contrasting new findings on Indian govt.'s "New Welfarism" with broader lessons for pol. economy of development & for democratic politics

1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services

2. But reversal of gains on child stunting
2/ Piece @IndianExpress by @vksdimble @abhishekecon & me based on our analysis of first round of new National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
3/ What's New Welfarism (NW)?

Distinctive, conscious redistribution/inclusion policy:

not prioritizing basic health/education

ambivalence on safety net

Instead, subsidized *govt.* provision of essential *private* goods/services: bank a/cs, toilets, power, fuel, housing, water
Read 9 tweets
21 Oct 20
1/ India's macro-trade-development puzzle stemming from 2 surprising facts

new paper w/@shoumitro_c: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Puzzle

Post-1991, world's 3rd fastest manufacturing export growth (Fact 1)

despite

Massive under-exports of unskilled labor goods (Fact 2)
2/ Fact 1

India considered inward-oriented economy & premature "deindustrializer: drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rod…

But, for 3 decades, post-1991

Exports a key driver of growth

Not just services but manufacturing exports have grown rapidly (12% annual)

India an east Asian Tiger!
3/ Fact 2

That Indian economy services not manufacturing-based economy well known: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…

But *magnitude* of defying comp. advantage striking: missing low-skill exports/production b/w $60-100 bn.

So too is duration. Under-performance several decades old
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct 20
1/ The India-vs.-Bangladesh GDP per capita comparison (post @IMFNews WEO) has sparked anxiety & acrimony

But wrong numbers being compared

NO, on more appropriate metric, India has not been surpassed and, according to IMF, unlikely to be in near future
2/ GDP per capita is an *estimate* for one *indicator* of the average standard of living/welfare in a country

Note the 2 caveats, it is only one indicator, there are many others (eg. human development index)

and even as that indicator, GDP can be measured in many ways
3/ We need to measure "real" GDP in local currency after taking out effects of inflation and

Then, convert all local currency estimates of real GDP into comparable dollars

Many ways of doing this (IMF has 3, World Bank has 4)
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct 20
1/n Second (& final) piece in @IndianExpress by @shoumitro_c & me where we evaluate the twin prescriptions of India’s inward turn: favouring domestic demand over exports (macro) and raising barriers to encourage domestic production (trade): indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
2/n We argue for more openness in areas of opportunity for India, eg. clothing. A key policy is reducing import tariffs on man-made yarn, a critical input to most dynamic export segment. Chart shows these tariffs for key competitors: India’s doubled recently & highest again Image
3/n our first piece in @IndianExpress where we document inward turn & discuss underlying rationale (“myths”) is here: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct 20
Excited about first research outputs from @AshokaUniv Center for Economic Policy (ACEP) on India's Exports and Growth

Research paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Policy paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

w/ @shoumitro_c

1/ ImageImage
Focus here is on policy paper.

India's inward turn ("atmanirbharta"):
-favoring domestic demand over exports (macro)
-imposing barriers favoring domestic production (trade)
...is consequential

3 questions

1. Is inward turn strong?
2. Is it warranted?
3. Will it work?

2/
Our @IndianExpress piece today (another tomorrow) covers questions 1 and 2: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…

Is Inward turn strong?

Yes: on trade, tariffs up, standstill on trade agreements, and slew of incentives/subsidies for domestic manufacturing.

3/
Read 14 tweets
1 Jun 20
Final *central* government revenue numbers for fiscal year 2019-20 for India released on Friday by Controller General of Accounts (CGA). Some confusion on their interpretation. Four take-aways 1/n
1. CGA numbers less reliable gauge of underlying economic activity because center's GST revenues are volatile, reflecting center's policy on sharing them with states. More reliable is a broader measure of *national* taxes: overall GST (center & states) plus all central taxes 2/n
2.Annual growth in this broad measure of taxes was minus 1.6% (nominal) and minus 6.1% (real). Excluding corporate taxes-which saw large rate cuts-growth was 3.2% (nominal) and minus 1.5% (real). *Real* tax growth is one macro-proxy for underlying *real* economic activity 3/n
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!