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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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29 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Blocked and reported.
Looks like this map is from just before the 2019 season: seatgeek.com/tba/articles/w…

Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Florida also shows the limitations of a fan map based on *ticket sales.* There's lots of evidence that the #Yankees are the most popular team in Florida—but of course, why would Floridians buy tickets to Yankee Stadium.

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
4 Mar
Because of the pandemic, I’ve been buying Girl Scout cookies online, which means I’ve finally been able to try both the ABC Bakers and Little Brownie Bakers cookies. This thread will serve as a taste test.
1. The biggest difference: S’mores. Both good in their own way. If you like creamy chocolate, you want ABC, but I lean slightly toward the higher graham-cracker-to-chocolate ratio of LBB.
2. Thin Mints. Very similar taste, but Little Brownie (left) is flakier while ABC is denser. ABC wins this one. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
3 Mar
Sure looks like white voters took advantage of approval voting in yesterday's #STLmayor election more than Black ones. cc @jrosenbaum docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
White wards in SW St. Louis, like 16, 24, 23, and 10 cast the most votes per ballot (as many as 1.79).

Black wards on the north side, like 1, 27, 21, and 4, cast the fewest (1.34 votes per ballot or lower).
Cara Spencer, the white progressive alderwoman, won a spot in the runoff by doing well in white wards, both conservative working-class ones and liberal gentrifying ones. She got very little support on the Black north side. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
26 Feb
What is the point of this?
Seems the point is to sabotage the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by preventing a popular vote calculation. Buuut unless the popular vote is super close, you'll still know who won it even without exact North Dakota results.
1. North Dakota is very small—only 565K eligible voters. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million.

2. If we know ND's percentages, you can apply those to even a rough turnout estimate and get a decent guess at the popular vote. Again, unless it's super close, you'll know.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
21 Jan
This deserves a thoughtful response. First, I don't think it's true that all reporters thought Georgia was Lean R. Many of us wrote of it as a pure tossup... fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
That said, if you had asked me two years in advance who'd have won a GA runoff, yes, I'd have said Republicans. There was SOME evidence for this (i.e., GOP overperformance in runoffs). But obviously, 1/5 showed that could be overcome.
So can the evidence for a good GOP year in 2022 be overcome too? Sure. But also, there is a MUCH bigger sample size of evidence saying midterms are bad for the prez party than there were for GA runoffs being pro-GOP.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
8 Jan
Up to six state legislators I'm aware of who were in Wednesday's mob:
-MI state Rep. Matt Maddock
-MO state Rep. Justin Hill
-PA state Sen. Doug Mastriano
-TN state Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver
-VA state Sen. Amanda Chase
-WV state Del. Derrick Evans
I have to wonder if any of them will be removed from office. Chase is the only one in a D-controlled chamber, but the 14th Amendment may provide a legal path to disqualify them. law.cornell.edu/constitution/a…
Looks like I missed some (many of these people say they left when things got violent, though):
-AK state Rep. David Eastman
-AZ state Rep. Mark Finchem
-Incoming NV state Assemb. Annie Black
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
26 Nov 20
I realize all the updates have probably been confusing, so let me try to summarize the #IA02 situation.

21 out of the district's 24 counties (all but Clinton, Jasper, & Scott) have recounted and certified results. Miller-Meeks (R) leads by 35 votes in those counties.
Jasper County just finished its recount and Hart (D) netted 1 vote (which would narrow the margin to 34 votes overall). These new results haven't been certified but there's no reason to think they won't be.
Scott County also finished its recount today and Hart netted 26 votes (which would narrow the margin to 8 votes). These new results haven't been certified AND might not be, because there was a 131-ballot discrepancy between the recount total and original total.
Read 5 tweets

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