THREAD

Some say life will only get better at a "herd immunity" threshold, others say we only need to vaccinate high-risk people.

Bottom line: every additional person vaccinated helps everyone in the community, *including those already vaccinated.* 🧵 1/

Direct protection from vaccines (protection of the vaccinated person) goes a long way toward limiting illness and death, but indirect protection massively amplifies the impact. Here’s a good explainer from @ZoeMcLaren. 2/

We need to maximize *indirect* protection to:
🔹Protect *vaccinated* persons who are still susceptible to disease
🔹Protect those who haven’t been vaccinated, including children
🔹Prevent Long COVID
🔹Protect everyone against variants.

Let's look at each. 3/
Many *vaccinated* persons will benefit from indirect protection, including:
🔹Immunocompromised persons who have an inadequate vaccine response
🔹Persons who may develop COVID-19 despite vaccination, as protection ≠ 100%
🔹Vaccinated persons whose immunity wanes pre-booster. 4/
Unvaccinated persons *depend* on indirect protection, including:
🔹Children, who can develop severe disease in rare instances
🔹Those who don't yet have access to vaccines, which is most of the world's population until 2022+. 5/

@collinskeith @Josh_H

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Why else does this matter? Long COVID.

Vaccines should protect against Long COVID, but indirect protection can eliminate the risk entirely by preventing exposure in the first place. 6/

@KatherineJWu

theatlantic.com/health/archive…
But the most important reason may be the threat of variants, which could make all of the above worse.

Significant population immunity against “classic” SARS-CoV-2 should make it harder for new variants to spread, even those with immune escape potential. 7/
The bottom line is that every single person vaccinated in a community helps everyone else (and indirectly the rest of the world), whether they have been vaccinated or not.

We need to maximize uptake of vaccines *everywhere*, and do that as fast as possible. 8/

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More from @rvenkayya

4 Mar
THREAD: Vaccines & transmission

The emerging, expected evidence that #vaccines reduce transmission is a game-changer, but the focus on herd immunity can give the impression that we won’t see a benefit until most are vaccinated. Not true. 1/ @apoorva_nyc
This thread describes a world in which vaccines reduce transmission. Early evidence is promising, although more data is needed to understand magnitude of reduction and differences between vaccines. 2/
nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…
@mlipsitch @angie_rasmussen
nytimes.com/2021/02/23/opi…
The value of transmission-reducing vaccines begins well before two people make contact. By reducing infections in a community, vaccines make it less likely for either of those persons to be carrying the virus, reducing risk substantially. 3/
@erinbanco
politico.com/news/2021/03/0…
Read 13 tweets
21 Feb
This is an excellent overview of the complexity of mRNA vaccine manufacturing.

An mRNA batch currently takes 110 days from start-finish.

“Traditional” vaccines (recombinant, vectored, inactivated) can take months longer. 1/

@eweise @kweintraub

usatoday.com/in-depth/news/…
More about the complexity of "traditional" vaccine approaches below.

These timelines assume the process has been "scaled up" and everything is in place & ready to go: facility, equipment, raw materials, etc. Unexpected issues can add weeks or months. 2/

Here’s a good reference on #vaccine #manufacturing from several colleagues for those interested in learning more. 3/

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 4 tweets
8 Feb
THREAD: Vaccine Escape

As variants spread and #vaccines are deployed, we’re not sequencing enough to keep up w/the virus.

As a stopgap, we should sequence viruses from every vaccinated person who develops #COVID to identify vaccine escape mutations. 1/
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01…
We call these “vaccine breakthroughs,” and we’ll see more of them as the B.1.351 and P.1 variants spread. Sequencing all breakthrough viruses will help us to track those variants and identify new mutations that might contribute to vaccine escape. 2/
The European CDC (@ECDC_EU) advised Member States do this in their risk assessment in January. 3/
Read 11 tweets
1 Feb
THREAD: Vaccine Manufacturing

Back in October, I said the Warp Speed timelines were extraordinarily optimistic given the inherent risks of vaccine development, manufacturing and distribution. All of those risks and others have materialized. 1/
Much of the risk is in "scaling up" production to produce large volumes of vaccine in a facility, and “scaling out” to manufacturing partners to expand capacity. This thread is about vaccine manufacturing and the challenges we’ll continue to face. 2/
This article from @lizszabo & colleagues is one of the few I've seen that attempts to capture the complexity and risk of manufacturing and explain why supply bottlenecks can't be resolved overnight. 3/ @SJTribble @ArthurAllen202 @JayHancock1 @KHNews
khn.org/news/article/r…
Read 16 tweets
29 Jan
THREAD
In light of the exciting & sobering news from @Novavax and @JNJNews, some thoughts on implications for future vaccine development.

As I've said, the Ph3 trials will provide the highest-quality data on vaccine efficacy against the new variants. 1/
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest mutations in B.1.351 confer some escape from natural and vaccine immunity.

Unless shown otherwise in efficacy/effectiveness studies, we should assume this is a class effect for all spike-targeting vaccines. 2/
The good news is we're likely to see higher levels of vaccine efficacy against variant-associated severe disease and death. J&J has provided the first evidence of this in their press release (insufficient severe dz in the Novavax interim analysis). 3/
Read 8 tweets
6 Jan
@BhadeliaMD @kavitapmd @ashishkjha @ASlavitt @RanuDhillon @RebeccaKatz5 Manufacturing partnerships are necessary for any company to ramp up manufacturing of #COVID vaccines, since no company has enough capacity to meet the world’s needs. Nearly all vaccines in late-stage trials have partnerships in place for this purpose. 1/ 🧵
@BhadeliaMD @kavitapmd @ashishkjha @ASlavitt @RanuDhillon @RebeccaKatz5 .@Novavax is a good example (@AstraZeneca is another). They listed their network of partners when they announced the partnership with @SerumInstIndia, with a goal of manufacturing >2B doses/yr. (@TakedaPharma is one of those partners.) 2/
ir.novavax.com/news-releases/…
@BhadeliaMD @kavitapmd @ashishkjha @ASlavitt @RanuDhillon @RebeccaKatz5 @Novavax @AstraZeneca @SerumInstIndia @TakedaPharma But it would be hard to quickly expand supply through new partnerships for several reasons:

TIMELINES: Depending on maturity and complexity of the process and partner capabilities, it takes a *minimum* of several months to transfer manufacturing to a new partner & facility. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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