Direct protection from vaccines (protection of the vaccinated person) goes a long way toward limiting illness and death, but indirect protection massively amplifies the impact. Here’s a good explainer from @ZoeMcLaren. 2/
We need to maximize *indirect* protection to:
🔹Protect *vaccinated* persons who are still susceptible to disease
🔹Protect those who haven’t been vaccinated, including children
🔹Prevent Long COVID
🔹Protect everyone against variants.
Let's look at each. 3/
Many *vaccinated* persons will benefit from indirect protection, including:
🔹Immunocompromised persons who have an inadequate vaccine response
🔹Persons who may develop COVID-19 despite vaccination, as protection ≠ 100%
🔹Vaccinated persons whose immunity wanes pre-booster. 4/
Unvaccinated persons *depend* on indirect protection, including:
🔹Children, who can develop severe disease in rare instances
🔹Those who don't yet have access to vaccines, which is most of the world's population until 2022+. 5/
But the most important reason may be the threat of variants, which could make all of the above worse.
Significant population immunity against “classic” SARS-CoV-2 should make it harder for new variants to spread, even those with immune escape potential. 7/
The bottom line is that every single person vaccinated in a community helps everyone else (and indirectly the rest of the world), whether they have been vaccinated or not.
We need to maximize uptake of vaccines *everywhere*, and do that as fast as possible. 8/
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The emerging, expected evidence that #vaccines reduce transmission is a game-changer, but the focus on herd immunity can give the impression that we won’t see a benefit until most are vaccinated. Not true. 1/ @apoorva_nyc
The value of transmission-reducing vaccines begins well before two people make contact. By reducing infections in a community, vaccines make it less likely for either of those persons to be carrying the virus, reducing risk substantially. 3/ @erinbanco politico.com/news/2021/03/0…
More about the complexity of "traditional" vaccine approaches below.
These timelines assume the process has been "scaled up" and everything is in place & ready to go: facility, equipment, raw materials, etc. Unexpected issues can add weeks or months. 2/
As variants spread and #vaccines are deployed, we’re not sequencing enough to keep up w/the virus.
As a stopgap, we should sequence viruses from every vaccinated person who develops #COVID to identify vaccine escape mutations. 1/ washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01…
We call these “vaccine breakthroughs,” and we’ll see more of them as the B.1.351 and P.1 variants spread. Sequencing all breakthrough viruses will help us to track those variants and identify new mutations that might contribute to vaccine escape. 2/
Back in October, I said the Warp Speed timelines were extraordinarily optimistic given the inherent risks of vaccine development, manufacturing and distribution. All of those risks and others have materialized. 1/
Much of the risk is in "scaling up" production to produce large volumes of vaccine in a facility, and “scaling out” to manufacturing partners to expand capacity. This thread is about vaccine manufacturing and the challenges we’ll continue to face. 2/
The good news is we're likely to see higher levels of vaccine efficacy against variant-associated severe disease and death. J&J has provided the first evidence of this in their press release (insufficient severe dz in the Novavax interim analysis). 3/
@BhadeliaMD@kavitapmd@ashishkjha@ASlavitt@RanuDhillon@RebeccaKatz5 Manufacturing partnerships are necessary for any company to ramp up manufacturing of #COVID vaccines, since no company has enough capacity to meet the world’s needs. Nearly all vaccines in late-stage trials have partnerships in place for this purpose. 1/ 🧵
TIMELINES: Depending on maturity and complexity of the process and partner capabilities, it takes a *minimum* of several months to transfer manufacturing to a new partner & facility. 3/