Tweet

Aaron Derfel

1 Apr, 10 tweets, 5 min read

1) Premier François Legault asserted Wednesday the #pandemic is “relatively stable” and “under control” in Montreal as he imposed lockdowns in Quebec City, Lévis and Gatineau. But as I will attempt to show in this thread, the situation in Montreal remains as precarious as ever.

@mtlgazette

2) As I reported in my column in the @mtlgazette tonight, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal jumped by 50 since a week ago, hardly a sign of stability. The more contagious variants are proliferating as never before in the metropolis. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

3) Schools have been responsible for most of the latest #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal, and this was before high school seniors were required to attend class five days a week. At least six schools in Montreal shuttered classes because of the #VariantsOfConcern on Wednesday.

4) Meanwhile, schools in Quebec City, Lévis and Gatineau will stay shut until April 12. This raises an obvious question: why are those schools closing while Montreal’s schools are remaining fully open despite the proliferation of variants in the city?

5) The Education Ministry reported a total of 44 Quebec schools were shut Tuesday due to #COVID19, up by five from the day before. I’m not suggesting Montreal schools should close, but why is the government forcing high school seniors in the city to attend class five days a week?

6) The incidence of #COVID19 has crept up in Montreal for the past two days. The city’s seven-day rolling average is 15.48 cases per 100,000 residents, up from 13.89 on March 21. During the same period, the number of variant cases in Montreal has nearly doubled to 3,008.

7) No doubt the #pandemic is surging in regions like the Outaouais, the Capitale-Nationale, and Chaudière-Appalaches. But the situation is growing more precarious in the metropolitan region of Montreal, Laval and the Montérégie.

8) What’s noteworthy is that cases are rising even though authorities most recently carried out fewer than 25,000 #COVID19 tests — a relatively low number that suggests transmission of the #coronavirus and its variants may be more elevated than authorities know.

9) What we do know is that the number of #COVID19 outbreaks rose for the eighth day in a row in Quebec. Clusters increased by 21 to 349 in the workplace; by eight to 81 in daycares, by six to 175 in schools and by two to 66 in health care institutions.

10) The government’s messaging has been quite mixed of late. Last week, the Premier said Quebec was resisting a third wave, only to confirm there is one this week. On Tuesday, Legault ruled out restrictions, only to impose them in three cities the next day. What next? The End.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Apr

@mtlgazette

1) Montreal’s hospitals are beginning to report an uptick in #COVID19 admissions during the #pandemic’s third wave, with younger and sicker patients staying longer in intensive-care units. Please click on my column below in the @mtlgazette. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

2) Local authorities are not observing a surge in patients in their 20s and 30s, although there are ICU patients in those age groups. What stands out are intensive-care patients in their 50s. There are also concerns these #COVID19 patients may be a lot sicker.

3) These observations square with findings that the more contagious variants are responsible for more severe #COVID19 hospitalizations. And Quebec is now reporting a lot more variant cases, 687 more since Thursday. See the chart below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Apr

1) Although Premier François Legault has announced lockdowns in Quebec City, Lévis and Gatineau, the variant-fueled #pandemic is now rising in nearly every region of the province, the latest government statistics show. In this thread, I will assess this turn for the worse.

2) As you can see from the chart below, #COVID19 cases have ramped up since Wednesday in 15 of Quebec’s 17 regions. Although the number of cases dipped by 21 in the Montérégie, they’re up by 30 overall since March 21.

3) Undeniably, #COVID19 is surging in the Capitale-Nationale, but cases have risen in the past three days in Montreal amid an increase in outbreaks in the workplace and in schools. As I wrote in yesterday’s thread, the situation in Montreal is definitely precarious.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Mar

1) The #pandemic is once again surging in the Capitale-Nationale region of Quebec as it had last September, but this time it’s the more contagious variants — and not a karaoke bar — that’s driving the transmission. In this thread, I will focus on the regions beyond Montreal.

2) On March 21, the region that includes the provincial capital recorded 35 #COVID19 cases. By Sunday, that number more than tripled to 114. Also on Sunday, Quebec’s public health institute noted an increase of 94 variant cases in this region. Please see the chart below.

3) In the past two days alone, at least 13 schools in the Quebec City area announced they had suspected or confirmed variant cases, according to covidecolesquebec.org, which has been providing timelier updates on the variants than the Education Ministry.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Mar

1) Two surveys were released this week showing Quebecers’ growing frustration with public health measures in the #pandemic, just as the province confronts a third wave driven by the more contagious variants. In this thread, I will delve into the implications of this weariness.

2) A survey by Quebec’s public health institute found that 57% of Quebecers would find it “very difficult” to cope with #pandemic measures for another six months, up from 55% two weeks ago. And a CROP survey found mounting resentment toward restrictions.

3) Premier François Legault suggested Friday he was open to reversing some of his latest loosening of restrictions. But he added: “We need to have a balance if we want the population to follow the measures we put in place. If we’re too strong, too hard, we may lose everybody.”

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

27 Mar

1) Premier François Legault flip-flopped Friday, acknowledging Quebec is in the “beginning of a third wave” in the #pandemic only three days after insisting the opposite. Unlike previous waves, more contagious variants of the #coronavirus are to blame here and across Canada.

2) For much of the #pandemic, British Columbia has managed to keep transmission of the #coronavirus relatively low. But on Friday, B.C. authorities confirmed 215 cases of the P.1 variant, the same strain that is causing massive deaths in Brazil. Quebec so far has one P.1 case.

3) Meanwhile, Ontario on Friday declared it has 58 cases of P.1, up by four from the previous day. In total, Ontario has 1,612 confirmed variant infections, more than double the tally in Quebec. And like B.C., #COVID19 hospitalizations in Ontario are on the upswing. See below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Mar

1) Breaking: the more transmissible #COVID19 variants are already the predominant strain in some regions of Quebec, according to the province’s public health institute.

2) The reproductive rate of the variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising.

3) At present, 85% of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be of the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.

Read 4 tweets

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