Only one of these countries, ranked here by the number of #COVID19 cases, population adjusted, is NOT on the UK govt’s “red list” which stipulates that British travellers should quarantine in a govt-approved hotel upon arrival in the UK.
Can you guess which one?
You guessed it: the answer is France.
Now, cards on the table: I left Uruguay off that chart even though it IS on the red list because, well, I was trying to make a point. Here you can see the full chart of red list countries vs France.
But as for that point…
Clearly case numbers shouldn’t be the only determinant of which countries are on or off the red list.
Clearly some of those countries on the list have dodgy data on COVID.
Clearly this isn’t just about cases but also abt VARIANTS of the virus.
Even so…
That chart tells a somewhat jarring story.
It would be helpful if govt could be clearer abt the specific criteria for the red list.
Helpful so those travelling (for work/urgent reasons) can make plans.
Helpful so we can understand the data/analytics behind the current strategy.

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More from @EdConwaySky

29 Mar
Remember when the PM announced the easing of lockdown it was going to be about data not dates? Well now we’ve had a bit more data in this feels like as good a time as any to see how we’re doing (Thread)
Strictly speaking “data not dates” meant a few crucial datapoints, as laid out in the documents at the time. In particular, there were four tests, roughly as follows:
1. Are enough people being vaccinated?
2. Are vaccines “working”?
3. Are infections surging?
4. New variants 😱
Test one: Are vaccines being deployed successfully?
Seems to be going very well. Over 90% of those aged over 70 have been vaccinated which is beyond what many expected. Over 80% for all but those aged over 100 interestingly
Read 14 tweets
25 Mar
Short answer?
Because the population was ageing in that period. It's DEMOGRAPHY!
I'm a big fan of @dannydorling but he's got this one wrong.
As @ActuaryByDay will tell you, once you age adjust the death rates you'll see they kept falling from 2012 to 2019. This is important.
Here are some charts that illustrate the point.
First off is simple deaths per year (England & Wales).
Yes, deaths crept up post 2010, reversing a long trend of falls.
But now recall that a) the population is ageing and b) these demographic trends matter enormously
More old people in a bigger population means, all else equal, that deaths will tend to rise each year. Because older people are more likely to die than younger people. That's why actuaries age adjust their data. And if you age adjust the data here's what it looks like:
Read 4 tweets
25 Mar
Thread: Since the UK has just released its latest data on greenhouse gas emissions, this feels like as good a time as any to look at the numbers and ask: what’s really going on? The broad picture is v promising (see these headlines from earlier): emissions falling fast.
Before we go any further, this is not a thread about “the science”. It’s not a debate abt climate change. Feel free to debate that elsewhere. This is abt the DATA. And while there are some interesting question marks over the data, the overarching aim of govt right now is v simple
The UK has committed, in law, to get greenhouse gas emissions down to zero in net terms by 2050. If you consider the starting point for that effort to be 1990, it’s now nearly (but not quite) halfway there. This is quite something…
Read 14 tweets
23 Mar
Since it’s a year on from lockdown and the second wave of excess mortality now seems to be over, a few datapoints on #COVID19 mortality in the UK.
Starting with this: we’re now at 149k deaths according to the @ONS measure (deaths where COVID mentioned on certificate)
Important to note this isn’t the only measure though: excess deaths, which is deaths from ALL causes vs 5yr historical average, puts the toll at 123k. We’ll get to why there’s a big difference in a moment. Even so: however you measure it we’re talking about high numbers of deaths
Strikingly, on the basis of the most comprehensive @ONS #COVID19 figures, total #COVID19 deaths (149k in total). The second wave was far bigger than the first wave. 91k in the latest wave vs 58k in the first.
Read 7 tweets
21 Mar
Something to ponder as you fill in the census. We’re currently in the midst of the most dramatic fall in the UK population since 1941, as three forces collide to push down the number of people living in this country news.sky.com/story/the-thre…
Incidentally a few people have understandably asked whether the fall in migrants last year might have been a Brexit effect. But while this might have contributed at the margin it doesn’t seem to be the main explanation. Anyway, the exodus was both EU and non-EU workers
That last chart is from this piece migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…. The phenomenon of enormous migrant outflows was first pointed out by @StrongerInNos and @jdportes ukandeu.ac.uk/estimating-the…
Read 5 tweets
19 Mar
One year on, how big a deal was the furlough scheme? Short answer: a v v v big deal.
I think we sometimes underplay this.
It has pervaded our lives in a way few if any other economic policies have and had all sorts of unintended consequences - good & bad. thetimes.co.uk/article/d724c3…
Comparable data on this isn’t especially easy to come by but the last time the @OECD had a look (turn of the year), UK had more people on furlough than any other country. Think about that for a second. And note we didn’t have either the most cases or toughest lockdown back then
When you think about it it’s pretty remarkable. Britain was unusual in Europe in not having a job retention programme (short time working) before #COVID19. But the generosity of the furlough scheme, and the enthusiasm with which it was taken up exceeded most of Europe.
Read 9 tweets

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