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21 Mar, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Something to ponder as you fill in the census. We’re currently in the midst of the most dramatic fall in the UK population since 1941, as three forces collide to push down the number of people living in this country news.sky.com/story/the-thre…
Incidentally a few people have understandably asked whether the fall in migrants last year might have been a Brexit effect. But while this might have contributed at the margin it doesn’t seem to be the main explanation. Anyway, the exodus was both EU and non-EU workers
That last chart is from this piece migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…. The phenomenon of enormous migrant outflows was first pointed out by @StrongerInNos and @jdportes ukandeu.ac.uk/estimating-the…
Three things are fuelling this fall in UK population:
1. BIG migration outflows due to lockdown
2. Deaths outnumbering births due to #COVID19
3. Fertility numbers falling.
First two effects temporary. Third seems to be a structural shift. @skynews report:
More on this from @resfoundation. They think the outflows may have been 500k rather than a million or so.
Underlines how much uncertainty there is over these numbers.
But note even a 500k fall in the population would be the biggest in % terms since 1941

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More from @EdConwaySky

Ed Conway Profile picture
19 Mar
One year on, how big a deal was the furlough scheme? Short answer: a v v v big deal.
I think we sometimes underplay this.
It has pervaded our lives in a way few if any other economic policies have and had all sorts of unintended consequences - good & bad. thetimes.co.uk/article/d724c3…
Comparable data on this isn’t especially easy to come by but the last time the @OECD had a look (turn of the year), UK had more people on furlough than any other country. Think about that for a second. And note we didn’t have either the most cases or toughest lockdown back then
When you think about it it’s pretty remarkable. Britain was unusual in Europe in not having a job retention programme (short time working) before #COVID19. But the generosity of the furlough scheme, and the enthusiasm with which it was taken up exceeded most of Europe.
Read 9 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
9 Feb
New: according to the @ONS the total UK #COVID19 death toll has now surpassed 125k.
Was 126,023 as of 29 Jan.
Note these are deaths where #COVID19 was mentioned on the certificate. Of those deaths, around 91% were caused by #COVID19, according to the @ONS.
Another way of calculating the death toll is excess deaths, which is deaths from all causes vs the five year average.
This was 111,540 across the UK between March 2020 and late Jan 2021.
Total deaths from all causes in week 4 of 2020 (the latest week) were higher than in the corresponding week of ANY year going back to 1970.
That’s still true even after adjusting for population.
31 deaths per 100k in week 4
Previous worst week 4: 28 per 100k in 1985
Read 5 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
22 Jan
I’m dearly hoping govt releases some actual data on the lethality of the new variant.
Holding a press conference to announce this ominous news alongside vague caveats about uncertainty is not a functional way to share this news
Nor was leaking it to journalists ahead of the event
There’s an irony here: @uksciencechief just told us to be a bit wary of the reports coming out of Israel warning abt the efficacy of single dose #COVID19 vaccines.
Why? Because of a lack of data.
Yet here he is making equally significant claims without providing the data.
Argh!
This episode underlines a deeper problem: a culture of data secrecy in Whitehall & NHS.
There are vast datasets that are never publicly released. Sometimes secrecy is justified to protect privacy.
Rest of the time there’s no justification for it.
This is public data. OUR data.
Read 7 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
22 Jan
Here's a short story about numbers, #COVID19, the scientific process and the misuse of science. And how it affects all of our lives. But it begins with these blokes, sitting in a wood-panelled room in the heart of the City of London. These are the men who decided the "gold fix".
For nearly a century the gold price was set in London in the room in a building on St Swithin's Lane. Twice a day the five men would meet in that room, call their trading rooms and, between them, settle on the price of the precious metal lbma.org.uk/assets/blog/al…
There's a long tradition of seemingly definitive numbers actually being decided in backroom meetings. Another example: LIBOR, product of a bankers' conference call (u know how that story ended).

Lesson: Most ppl pay attention to the number.
Far fewer to the process of forming it
Read 26 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
15 Jan
My @thetimes column about the most important economic issue no-one is talking about: the collapsing fertility rate. Not long ago the UK had one of the highest fertility rates in Europe. Not any more. This could have ENORMOUS consequences... thetimes.co.uk/article/bed703…
These two @ONS charts tell you the story. Up until 2012 the total fertility rate (eg no of children per woman on avg) was just under 2. By late 2020 it was 1.6. It has NEVER been that low. This pre-dates #COVID19. It is a trend. But one which v few seem to have taken on board.
Sidenote: it’s quite plausible that 2020 is the first year since the 1970s (and one of the only on record) that deaths outnumber births in England & Wales. We won’t know for a bit but both look like being just over 600k. Depressing milestone.
Read 12 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
11 Jan
Where does #COVID19 rank in the most depressing league table of all - the one comparing historic pandemics? We won't know for sure until the pandemic is over but we do now have enough data to draw some early conclusions. I've done some digging into the numbers:
I should say that I began this process unsure of what I'd find. Back in the spring I looked back at historical weekly deaths figs and found that while the 2020 levels were horribly high (and unprecedented seasonally) some weeks of Hong Kong flu were worse.
The weekly deaths numbers only go back so far. But we now have data for the 52 weeks of 2020 up to Christmas Day, which is enough to make a conservative estimate of how 2020 compares with history. And we have nearly two centuries of data to compare it to…
Read 20 tweets

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