Thread by @the_brumby

Short Thread on COVID Death Count

I know this is a difficult subj, so I will try to be respectful & simply present some data & ask some questions (which perhaps have answers)

Evidence #1 – many covid infections are asymptomatic (this paper ~93%)
rupress.org/jem/article/21…
1/15

Evidence #2 - Ok, but those were healthy young workers (19-59 in the study) and we know (well, most of us) that COVID attacks the elderly. Well this paper from the UK found 80.9% of nursing home residents that tested positive were also asymptomatic. gov.uk/government/pub…
2/15

Evidence #3 – PCR tests are EXTREMELY sensitive, so much so that even the NY Times found that 85-90% of positives are meaningless. nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
3/15

Evidence #4 - many jurisdictions report, as a COVID death, simply ANY death occurring within [X] days of a positive PCR test. For example, see this from New York City (60 days).
www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
4/15

Evidence #5 – no data/pictures necessary, but we know there was significant excess death in many jurisdictions around the world in 2020, and we know a lot (most?) of that was caused by COVID. However…
5/15

Evidence#6–Lockdowns cause BIG nonCOVID excess death. eg this paper found “In 14 states, >50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID” & in NYC there were 398% & 356% increases in heart disease & diabetes, respectively
6/15 jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

Evidence #7 – we know the CDC expanded its definition of classifying deaths attributable to COVID, altering standard established medical criteria for diagnosis.
7/15
cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss…

Evidence #8 – the median and mean stay prior to death in a nursing home—where ~40% of COVID deaths occurred—are only ~5 months and ~14 months, respectively
8/15
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Question#1–Given the liberal definition of a COVID death as simply any death w/in a specified time period of a + test, and given 80-90% asymptomatic, how do we distinguish between dying FROM covid vs. dying with an asymptomatic + test that “overrides” the primary diagnosis?
9/15

If the latter were occurring, I would expect to see COVID death by age mirror that of all other death (similar to results I would get if I were measuring whether there was an epidemic of people dying of green eyes). Well…
h/t @justin_hart
10/15

Question#2 – Surely the above accounts for some of what is occurring, but we still have excess death spikes to explain. So how do we know a greater % of excess death is not from lockdowns like missed critical med. care? Or dependent care home residents abandoned in panic?
11/15

How do we know, for example, the 400% increase in cardiac deaths isn’t just the portion that couldn’t be reclassed/overridden as COVID due to asymptomatic + test? Many hard-hit areas reached 30-50% seroprevalence, so in theory could 30-50% of all deaths be classed “COVID”?
12/15

Question#3–how do we know the lockdowns didnt result in a lot of people dying from preventable causes (or overdoses) b/c they were too scared to go to the hospital b/c of gov’t/media panic? If so, I might see substantially increased non-COVID deaths at home
ht @EWoodhouse7
13/15

Too many people sadly died of COVID. Too many people sadly died (and will continue to die) because of lockdowns. Its important to distinguish the two so that we can learn from our mistakes. I suspect it will take years of forensic analysis if it is allowed to occur at all.
14/15

Below is the most in-depth & comprehensive exercise I’ve seen attempting to arrive at the “real” number @Dierenbach
15/15 rationalground.com/covid-is-not-a…