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Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

3 Apr

There are five distinct #COVID19 trends globally. 1) In Brazil and some neighboring countries, a P1-driven surge is unfolding with potentially huge impacts on health systems and deaths. 1/10

2) B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada. 2/10

3) Cases and deaths are increasing in Europe despite extensive social distancing mandates, slowly increasing vaccination rates, and reduced mobility. 3/10

Read 10 tweets

Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

11 Dec 20

@IHME_UW

.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8

The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8

Read 8 tweets

Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

10 Dec 20

@EClinicalMed

In our commentary “We have to get it right: Ensuring success” in @EClinicalMed with @PeterHotez @worenst we call for a national communications strategy to counter anti-vaccine misleading information. 1/12
thelancet.com/journals/eclin…

Addressing the concerns and ensuring widespread use and compliance of vaccines means that we will require an unprecedented level of communication between federal agencies and the American people. 2/12

It is imperative to effectively message and build the public’s confidence in the #COVID19 vaccine. Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is no small task in the current political and cultural climate. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

20 Sep 20

@WHOEMRO

IHME’s latest forecasts indicate that #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1 has increased in @WHOEMRO from 165,847 last week to 182,311. As of today, about 56,681 deaths have occurred in the region, and our estimates suggest 125,630 deaths from now until January 1. 1/30

If mask wearing in public increases to 95%, there will be around 99,217 deaths, and about 83,094 lives could be saved. This is about a 66% reduction in the number of deaths expected between now and January 1. 2/30

If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, we estimate 201,761 deaths by Jan 1. 3/30
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…

Read 30 tweets

Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

13 Sep 20

@IHME_UW

@IHME_UW projections for cumulative #COVID19 deaths globally by January 1st are 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. 1/7
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…

Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7

If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7
healthdata.org/sites/default/…

Read 7 tweets

Ali H. Mokdad

@AliHMokdad

12 Sep 20

@IHME_UW

@IHME_UW now projects a total of 415,090 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st (most likely scenario); 611,784 (worst case scenario); and 298,589 (best case scenario). 1/22
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

The new 415,000 US #COVID19 death projection by January 1 represents a more than doubling of deaths over the past six months. 2/22

But no matter where the US is now, we have the tools to save thousands of lives moving forward. The science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limiting social gatherings all help prevent infection. 3/22

Read 22 tweets

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