There are five distinct #COVID19 trends globally. 1) In Brazil and some neighboring countries, a P1-driven surge is unfolding with potentially huge impacts on health systems and deaths. 1/10
2) B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada. 2/10
3) Cases and deaths are increasing in Europe despite extensive social distancing mandates, slowly increasing vaccination rates, and reduced mobility. 3/10
4) Bangladesh, Pakistan, and many states in India have rapid increases in cases and deaths. 5) A surge in many African countries after the detection of B.1.351 in South Africa. 4/10
Many countries in the Middle East appear to be following the same pattern as in Europe, with likely a B.1.1.7-driven epidemic. The rapid increases in Turkey are particularly concerning. 5/10
Given much lower sequencing rates, it is harder to be sure which variant is accounting for this increase in these locations. 6/10
Rising cases in settings where seroprevalence data suggest more than 60% have been infected suggest that the surge may be related to an escape variant. 7/10
Overly rapid reopening, well documented in the rapid increases in mobility in the US, increases the risk of an April/May surge despite rapid scale-up of vaccination. 8/10
Currently, sustained mask use in the US is one important brake on the surge; if mask use starts to drop then we may see increasing death numbers in the US through until May. 9/10
The trajectory of the pandemic requires stronger preventive measures and depends on the behavioral response in terms of vaccine confidence, mask wearing, and avoidance of situations that pose a high risk for transmission. 10/10

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More from @AliHMokdad

2 Apr
تزداد حالات ووفيات #كوفيد١٩ اليومية في الدول العربية. ومع ذالك لا تزال الحركة مرتفعة واستخدام الكمامة منخفض جدًا. هذه التصرفات والانتشار السريع لتحور B.1.1.7 هي أسباب هذه الزيادة. 1/4
covid19.healthdata.org/global
يجب أن تكون التجربة الاوروبية بمثابة تحذير من المخاطر التي ينطوي عليها B.1.1.7.أوروبا فرضت اغلاقات اكثر من الدول العربية ولديها معدلات تطعيم أعلى من المنطقة ، لكنها شهدت زيادات كبيرة في الحالات اليومية وزيادات أبطأ في الوفيات اليومية. 2/4
يتطلب مسار الوباء في المنطقة تدابير وقائية أقوى ويعتمد على الاستجابة السلوكية من حيث الثقة في اللقاح واستخدام الكمامة وتجنب المواقف التي تشكل خطرًا كبيرًا لانتشار الوباء. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec 20
.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8
The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec 20
In our commentary “We have to get it right: Ensuring success” in @EClinicalMed with @PeterHotez @worenst we call for a national communications strategy to counter anti-vaccine misleading information. 1/12
thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
Addressing the concerns and ensuring widespread use and compliance of vaccines means that we will require an unprecedented level of communication between federal agencies and the American people. 2/12
It is imperative to effectively message and build the public’s confidence in the #COVID19 vaccine. Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is no small task in the current political and cultural climate. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
20 Sep 20
IHME’s latest forecasts indicate that #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1 has increased in @WHOEMRO from 165,847 last week to 182,311. As of today, about 56,681 deaths have occurred in the region, and our estimates suggest 125,630 deaths from now until January 1. 1/30
If mask wearing in public increases to 95%, there will be around 99,217 deaths, and about 83,094 lives could be saved. This is about a 66% reduction in the number of deaths expected between now and January 1. 2/30
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, we estimate 201,761 deaths by Jan 1. 3/30
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Read 30 tweets
13 Sep 20
@IHME_UW projections for cumulative #COVID19 deaths globally by January 1st are 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. 1/7
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2 million, or 769,871 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 41% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/7
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1 – then the death toll could increase to 4 million, this would be 3.1 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 3/7
healthdata.org/sites/default/…
Read 7 tweets
12 Sep 20
@IHME_UW now projects a total of 415,090 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st (most likely scenario); 611,784 (worst case scenario); and 298,589 (best case scenario). 1/22
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
The new 415,000 US #COVID19 death projection by January 1 represents a more than doubling of deaths over the past six months. 2/22
But no matter where the US is now, we have the tools to save thousands of lives moving forward. The science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limiting social gatherings all help prevent infection. 3/22
Read 22 tweets

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