This article has all the keywords: “moderates”....”engagement”; there is a formula to this.

The fact is that Iran’s regime is the one that feeds these claims of good cop/bad cop “moderates/hardliners” to the West as part of a deal strategy

edition.cnn.com/2021/04/06/mid… Image
Why not just call the regime’s bluff. Say “fine...let’s see the hardliners”....what would their policy be? How can it be more “hardline”?
Iran doesn’t want to develop a full nuclear weapon, it uses this for leverage. You honestly think Turkey, China and Russia would allow an Iranian bomb?
If Iran ever actually developed a bomb it would harm the myth that Iran created that it was just seeking peaceful nuclear energy and what would it use as a bogeyman in negotiations? More bombs? It would lose leverage.
Also there is a whole industry of Iran Deal commentators...and if one calls the regime bluff then they will be the main ones urging Iran not to build a bomb because they depend on the non-bomb leverage of Iran as the reason for a “deal”

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More from @sfrantzman

8 Apr
Thread:Ankara has responded to the claims that they sidelined Ursula van der Leyen by claiming the EU set the protocol. Honestly this doesn’t surprise me. I’m a critic of Ankara but the EU are adults, they should have waited for her to have a chair or given her the primary chair.
The EU are the ones who sidelined her too...basically with the man running to grab the chair and then we have all these headlines that she was not given a chair Image
I don’t buy it that Ankara is wholly to blame. Adult countries like the EU that are not subservient to Turkey ostensibly can figure out how to have another chair. They chose not to wait and have one brought and they chose to have the man run to sit next to “dear leader” Erdogan
Read 6 tweets
8 Apr
Thread: The theory behind the Iran deal rests on two foundations.

1. We need a deal or there will be war: "Best chance to stop an Iranian bomb without another war in the Middle East."

2. If there isn't a deal, Iran will build a nuclear bomb. "Will block all of Iran's pathways"
These two foundations can be found in historic statements; obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign…
Here is a question. If there isn't a deal...why would there be war? Who would wage that war? The US doesn't want a war. Iran doesn't want a war. Israel doesn't want a war. So since no one wants a war, why would there be "war."
Read 24 tweets
21 Mar
Thread- A theory about something, could be wrong but here it goes: there is a whole crowd of commentators in the US who are critical of Biden admin’s policy on Iran. They break down into several groups. Some concerned about Iran threats, some about a new Iran deal, some hate Iran
Some unfortunately have an obsessive conspiracy minded view where everything that happens is related to the former Obama admin and Iran. It’s unclear if their talk about Iran is really just a domestic political dispute and hatred for Obama’s old admin.
A few of these folk were also openly or quietly pro-AKP and Turkey’s authoritarian fascist regime, singing its praises and claiming the US needs a Turkey-first policy to “confront Iran” even though Ankara is actually working with Iran.
Read 15 tweets
20 Mar
Because of some anti-Netanyahu protesters arriving the police have closed off roads to the government quarter and interacted traffic in Jerusalem.
They have a massive deployment, I’ve rarely seen so many roads closed all around the government quarter and Rehavia
They put a truck across the road near the Monastery of the cross and here they have blocked these roads...not even residents can get through...not to many rights if you’re a Jerusalemite...
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
Thread; WILD #breakingnews: "Israel has achieved significant progress in shaping the future of mobility, introducing a national drone network that will primarily enable cargo transportation in urban areas through smart and innovative airspace management"

Credit Zvika Goldstein
"The drones flying in the demonstration will perform about 300 sorties a day. Each drone will be simulating the execution of various types of tasks and operations: food delivery, transporting medicine and medical equipment, agricultural services and many others."
Since March 2020, the Israel C4IR Center at the Israel Innovation Authority, in cooperation with the Israel Ministry of Transport and the Civil Aviation Authority of Israel, and a number of other entities, have been working to promote the use of drone delivery as a service.
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar
Contest: From what series, or film is this? Hints to follow...
hint: pac of cigs says "Gauloise"
"i wanted you to pour oil on the waters not muddy them"
Read 4 tweets

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