1. #Russia’s military build-up along the borders of #Ukraine, statements by Russian government officials, the exorbitant tonality in Russian state TV and other escalatory actions are reasons for real concern for European security. #OSCE2021SWE
2. Regardless of the intention/s (there might be several) behind this, it is a form of strategic communication, signaling – to Kyiv, the Biden administration, the EU and N4-capitals Berlin and Paris...
3. ...to test reactions and to state that managing, not to speak about solving, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can only be made on terms acceptable to the Kremlin.
4. The show of military power is used to intimidate. It's also a way to take & keep the initiative (the West is forced to react), trying to achieve further concessions or stop any policy moves from the West detrimental to Moscow, or to establish new facts on the ground...
5. The background that Russia has used military force against other states for political aims, in 2008 and since 2014, underlines how serious the situation remains. Having taken the initiative is also a way of showing that all options are on the table.
6. There are tools in the politico-military toolbox that can be used, CBSM:s like Vienna Document and Open Skies, to improve collective situational awareness and to remove uncertainties, thus hopefully raising the threshold for further military aggression.
7. Swedish @FOIresearch made a good analysis of this in its report "OSCE and Military Confidence-Building in Crisis" foi.se/rapportsammanf… , also underlying the need for modernizing this toolbox.
8. Reactions and actions of the West are now needed for conflict prevention. The @osce has an important role and toolbox for upholding its key principles and commitments, which together with international law are the criteria for a sustainable conflict solution. @SwedeninATOSCE
9. Not to act & react is a form of moral hazard of security policy. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not a local or regional conflict, it has implications for European security and the future of the #Europeansecurityorder.
10. Which is also a reminder of the importance of the comprehensive concept of security of the #OSCE. Respect for democracy, human rights and rule of law within a state is linked to the security between states. Internal repression correlates with external aggression.
@ECFRWiderEurope @ACEurasia @cepa @SWP_EEE @ICDS_Tallinn @OSW_eng @PISM_Poland @AKendallTaylor @CNASdc @dgapev @IfriRNV @ChathamHouse @RugeBoris @IFSHHamburg @sinikukka @vBeckerath @jamesnixey @SabFis3 @sumlenny @mikercarpenter @ZOiS_Berlin @KofmanMichael @ulrichspeck #säkpol
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