It could be argued that many of the approaches to ensure sustainability identified in this (otherwise excellent infographic) are actually focused on ensuring spaceflight safety & IMHO there are some fundamental omissions, most importantly to do with how we think about the future
It's also not really correct to place large constellations into the category of trends that pose challenges to long-term sustainability (even though most might disagree with me). If we do so, then surely we must place all past, present & future space systems into this category.
I'd also argue that diversity of space actors is a necessary feature of space sustainability, as defined by the UN: it is "the ability to maintain the conduct of space activities indefinitely into the future" realising the objectives of "equitable access to the benefits"
IMHO, space sustainability is about enabling long time behaviour, which "seeks to cultivate an attitude of care for the future, however near or far off it might be, so that we change our behaviour to take responsibility for it in the present." (see: @LongTimeProject)
Whilst supporting and complying with space debris mitigation guidelines is (vitally) important, I don't think it is quite the same as embracing & cultivating "an attitude of care for the future." We must have empathy for future generations & their goals to be able to say we care.
The goals of our grandchildren's children will not be the same as ours. In many ways, they are unknowable. Yet we can still have empathy, we can still care for their future, and we can still take responsibility for that in our present.
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I am seeing some ill-informed takes on today's near-miss in orbit so would like to offer some trajectory corrections if I may. Firstly, the chance that a single collision would trigger a catastrophic 'chain reaction' that would sweep through LEO is tiny.
For every close pass involving catalogued objects in orbit we can estimate a collision probability, or Pc. The Pc is between 0 and 1. If it is 1 we can say that a collision is certain. If it is 0 then we can say that a miss is certain.
The event today may have had a Pc between 0.02 & 0.2. In any case, the Pc was relatively small (compared to a Pc of 1) so a miss was the most likely outcome. For a chain reaction to occur a long & sustained sequence of collisions would need to take place.
All of my work interactions are virtual at the moment, as I am sure many of yours are too. In this format I think it is even more difficult to be aware of an #InvisibleIllness or #InvisibleDisability so for #MEAwarenessHour I'd like to ask you to keep this in mind.
It will be harder for you to see if someone is facing challenges so it's perhaps even more important than ever to be kind & considerate in all of your online work interactions.
It's easy to be dismissive, to compare someone else's situation to your own, or to persuade yourself that perhaps your colleague's slow progess is because of a lack of effort. It's important to have empathy & not to judge.
In the last #SOCRATES report of 2020 #Starlink satellites accounted for 29.1% (1-in-3.4) of all 44,530 close approaches < 5 km recorded for the first week of January 2021 with a total Pc of 1.7% #SpaceDebris
Ignoring Starlink-on-Starlink conjunctions the constellation satellites accounted for 9.8% of all close approaches < 5 km.
The yearly rates based on this report are 675,451 close approaches < 5 km involving #Starlink (227,655 ignoring Starlink-on-Starlink conjunctions)
It's time for my (seemingly monthly) look at conjunctions involving #Starlink satellites, as predicted by celestrak.com/SOCRATES/. In this month's update I have corrected an error in the conjunction rates for June, July & August (I missed some conjunctions) (1/n) #SpaceSafety
In the SOCRATES report from 30 September 2020, with just over 680 #Starlink satellites in orbit (v0.9 & v1.0), there were 6957 conjunctions < 5 km involving at least one #Starlink satellite (17.7% of all conjunctions in the SOCRATES report) for the 7 days ahead) (2/n)
The number of conjunctions < 5 km involving a #Starlink satellite & something else (i.e. not Starlink) over the 7-day period was 2828 (7.2% of all conjunctions in the SOCRATES report) (3/n)
For those asking, this visualisation is made up exclusively of a single Excel chart (2D scatter plot) that contains multiple series. Some of the data are plotted as lines without markers, some are plotted just with markers. Spin buttons provide real-time updates.
I convert the Keplerian elements for the orbit to Cartesian coordinates and then project the 3D position onto a 2D plane (that is plotted). I do this for true anomaly values between 0 and 360 deg. to get the orbit.
The "Earth" is drawn in the same way. In fact, the lines of longitude are essentially circular, polar "orbits" with radius equal to the Earth radius. Lines of latitude are circular, equatorial orbits that are translated and re-sized.
Here is a thread-based version of my talk at the @AeroSociety conference on 'Safeguarding Earth's Space Environment' that I hope gets some key points across about modelling #spacedebris & how it can help to identify the data we need to understand #SpaceSustainability (1/n)
Caveat: I use images as metaphors, to help with understanding of key concepts, so my slides have no words in them. (2/n)
Our models have two distinct roles: PREDICTION and UNDERSTANDING. Understanding can help us to design better models and gather more relevant data. Both of these roles are important in relation to #SST, #SpaceSafety and #SpaceSustainability (3/n)