Thread by @sumlenny

THREAD: what comes next amid Russian pressure on Ukraine? The situation is pretty volatile and covered with fog of war. Still, certain important factors are visible. I’d try to elaborate.

1) I believe, that the main moving factor behind Russian pressure is the lack of water on occupied Crimea. With 85% dependency from Dnipro river, Crimean water reservoirs are dried out after 6 years of annexing. In cities, water supply is rationed. This summer will be terrible.

1.1) Zelensky wanted to give Russia water (essential for occupation) months ago, but abandoned this idea as he has realized this would be end of his presidency. So Russia plans to take water by force. Why do I think it is only about water, not about revival of “Novorossia”?

2) Novorossia project (capturing of every region of Ukraine between Kharkiv and Odesa, making Ukraine to a land country without any access to the sea) was Russia’s main objective in 2014-15. It has failed. It is not abandoned completely, but such an offensive would cost A LOT.

3) Putin’s tactic is always to scare the opponent and to act quickly. To claim wins, creating the new reality, and than to start to negotiate about legalizing these new facts, exploiting Western love for compromises on third party’s costs.

3.1) that is how he acted in Crimea - and that is why he has frozen his Donbas offensive and went to Minsk in order to save his positions. He is just much weaker than he wants to be seen. Every time he is in trouble, he attacks - but with an aim of a fast victorious Blitzkrieg.

4) I believe the current situation is the same. I think Putin will need a fast Speznaz takeover of the Canal Dnipro-Crimea. It is 65 km direct way and 110 km canal length. Russia will try to send airborne troops to take Dnipro dam in Nova Kakhovka under control. This is realistic

4.1) Technically, this is Crimea 2.0. After that, Putin will say it is “only about water” and “preventing humanitarian catastrophe”. And that all his troops (he has so openly brought to the border) would attack in a case, someone will try to stop his attempt to control water.

5) In this case, a mild respond to Russia’s seizure of canal would be a mistake. Despite of all bluffing, Putin is not ready for a war. His rating is very low. RU suffers from Covid and economy crisis. He has elections in Autumn. Russians welcome war only if fast and victorious.

6) So after all, this is (and will be) a huge test for the West and fir Ukraine. I believe, the best peace-strengthening action would be introducing of very hard sanctions now - against Russian companies and sectors (railways, transport, energy, banks) for the war preparations.

7)And of course, Nord Stream 2 should be stopped immediately. This would be the best option for peace. We may not wait until Russian helicopters full with troops land in Nova Kakhovka and Putin starts to negotiate from a much better position. We need to stop this madness now. END

PS Just for understanding: I do not deny an option of a large-scale Russian invasion (I think it has a probability of 25-39%), I just say, this option is not what Russia would prefer to have now.