The "replacement theory" isn't just Tucker's usual racism. It is different. The theory -- that space is limited b/c displacement is occurring -- is used as justification for violence to protect a limited resource. It is a promotion and defense of violence. 1/
Also known as "the great replacement," the ideology was first introduced in France about fears of Arab and Muslim immigrants who were allegedly overwhelming the "elite." But Tucker clearly is focused on Hispanics, Jewish Americans and other minorities here. 2/
Tucker is coy because he is also correct in one sense. Replacement is occurring. Young white men today are the last generation of Americans born when Caucasian births outnumbered those of nonwhites. This trend will continue and it animates the racist violence. 3/
In 2012, the Census Bureau reported that minorities, particularly Hispanics, were the majority of newborns in the United States. It just is. This strain of white supremacy doesn’t simply dislike the “other”; it views the other’s very existence as part of a zero-sum game. 4/
Tucker knows this. You can't encounter the theory without knowing it. And other Republicans have flirted with it. 5/

What Tucker did wasn't just about owning the libs. @JGreenblattADL knows that. This was different. It was Tucker, just like Trump, using his platform to promote terrorism, call it stochastic terrorism or actually quite direct. His followers knew exactly what he meant. 6/6

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More from @juliettekayyem

6 Apr
THREAD: Robert Pape's @washingtonpost essay about his study (that provides more details than a comment in a @nytimes story) is actually INTERESTING. The racism propelling the "protect the vote" insurrection and subsequent GOP voter suppression strategy are known to Pape. 1/
It would be too bad to lose this data based on a strong research agenda, then condensed to a column, that was written about by a reporter, only for Pape's quote to be criticized on twitter b/c he decided to have some fancy rollout only tomorrow so no one has seen the report! 2/
For me, though, some data from what Pape has released is interesting: "Those involved are, by and large, older and more professional than right-wing protesters we have surveyed in the past. They typically have no ties to existing right-wing groups." "In the past" is operative.3/
Read 7 tweets
15 Mar
This is already so good. @Harry_Styles #grammys
Given the lack of live performances for so long, the whole thing -- voices over theatrics, music in the round, the artists sitting and grooving to other artists, the first three selections -- is just a joy to watch. #GRAMMYs
This is such a neat touch and I hope they keep it; artists talking about their careers and how they think about their music. It's just interesting. Plus #BlackPumas are just so good. #GRAMMYs
Read 13 tweets
12 Mar
WHITE GOP MEN AND VACCINES. As I noted before, every cohort of past vaccine resistant pops has shifted towards yes (to "now" or "yes, but not first" category).
Vaccinations beget vaccinations.
EXCEPT GOP men and Trump supporters remain unmoved. Trump continues to harm. 1/
Trump did not announce his vaccination, no photo, no former Pres PSA video. He is hostile to Biden's successes in the roll out. It's tragic, really. FOX could help. But data shows that people can be moved by family and friends too so talk to them, don't shame, one at a time. 2/
Minority and vulnerable populations face access issues, but it is incorrect to call that hesitancy or hostility. Different problem and one that needs to be fixed. Indeed in African American and even Hispanic communities (though latter is still high), hesitancy dropping fast. 3/
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
(Personal) Thread on debate about US Covid status -- glass half full or half empty; life back to normal or "constant vigilance." It seems to be less about data, but about choosing a standard of measurement: bulk or intimate. I earlier described the mental pivot we needed⬇️ 1/
By any "bulk" measurement, the foundations are strong/awesome. All systems are go (ice delays notwithstanding); vaccines are working; strong proof for controlling transmission; glitches are fixable; supply increasing; more vaccines will be approved; hesitancy going down. 2/
With any "intimacy" measure, there is (may always be?) worry. We get to normal if people continue to behave well so the risk of claiming victory prematurely is high; minority and disadvantaged communities are being left out; "blips" are real; anti-vaxxers suck; variants exist. 3/
Read 7 tweets
10 Feb
Thread on data of #capitolriot charges. This is why the isolation, condemnation and deplatforming of their spiritual and operational head must continue: only small % had ties to organized groups, while the rest only had allegiance to Trump. This is good 1/
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Why? The question remains how relevant to domestic terrorism movement is Trump? Qanon moves on; white supremacy exists; hate never went away. Of course that is true but I don't think helpful. We have a tactical threat: the concern that Trump continues to nurture and recruit. 2/
Yes we have "big picture" issues about race and tolerance and conspiracies but sometimes solving an immediate problem can help with longer term one. Trump's use of terrorism tactics was that problem. And the data shows he was successful at getting individuals radicalized. 3/
Read 5 tweets
5 Feb
.@Farah_Pandith, who wrote a book about radicalization, has something to say about the podcast Caliphate today. This isn't just about fact-checking. Every female counterterrorism expert saw what was happening: the selling of a sexy (pun intended) story to the public. 1/
From the PR campaign, to the haunting fear that the reporter has about being physically in danger, to the glamorization of violence, and the caricature of female ISIS members, the whole thing was, in Farah's words, made "glam." 2/
And it worked. Caliphate was to counterterrorism as Serial was to criminal justice issues by bringing a major issue to the forefront through audio storytelling of the life of one man through a believing woman. I am well aware of the irony is this analogy. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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