Thread by @SemaSgaier

📣 HOT OFF THE PRESS: The US is averaging 3M covid shots/day - great! So, we are on our way to herd immunity, right??
Not so fast! Our projections 👇 show that starting end of APRIL, #COVIDVaccine uptake will slow down considerably. 🧵 1/8

Watch the turn the ➡️takes when we hit July. Based on responses from @SurgoVentures' new survey, a sizable proportion of US adults (33%) will still be holding out by then: 7% want to wait 1 yr; 10% not sure when they'll get vax; 16% say won't get vax ever... 2/8

…consequently, our projections show verrrrrrrrrry slow uptake from then to a YEAR FROM NOW: April 2022. When only 58% of Americans would be vaccinated - definitely NOT the herd immunity that we need. 3/8

With herd immunity currently defined as between 70-90% of the pop. + considering right now 59% of adults are vaccinated or want to be vaccinated asap, we modeled different scenarios for achieving #CovidVaccine coverage at both ends of the 70-90% spectrum ⬇️ 4/8

Scenario 1: To vax 70% of the ENTIRE U.S. pop., around 90% of U.S. adults will need to be vaccinated. This means 31% of U.S. adults still need to be convinced. We will also need convince: ALL the "don't know” respondents + SOME of the "I won't get the vaccine" respondents. 5/8

Scenario 2: To vax at least 90% of the ENTIRE U.S. pop, 294M people would need to be vaccinated. 🤯 This means every single U.S. ADULT vaccinated + 38M KIDS to reach 90%!! 6/8

Scenario 3: 26.7% of Americans have had #COVID19, adding to overall immunity rates. Assuming they will get 💉 at similar rates as other Americans, we might be able to achieve an immunity rate of ~65% (immunity + vax) by July 2021 -- STILL not enough to reach herd immunity. 7/8

Our take: Despite general US #vaccine enthusiasm, things are going to get really difficult...soon. We must work HARD to address people’s real & perceived barriers, convincing the unconvinced + making 💉 available to 18 & under.
Learn more: surgoventures.org/newsroom-all/a… 8/8