Thread by @AndersonBrito_

Our study about B.1.1.7 in the US was recently published on @CellPressNews. We used flight data to predict importation risks in major urban areas, and genomic evidence revealed multiple introductions, interstate spread, and the exponential increase of B.1.1.7 in US states. #COVID

Using travel data of incoming flights from the UK and other countries heavily affected by B.1.1.7, we modelled the risk of introduction and local spread of variants from this lineage.

Six states were predicted with the highest importation risks: NY, CA, FL, TX, NJ and MA. ✈️

There are big disparities in the percent of sequenced COVID-19 cases across US states. As local and international travel continues, genomic surveillance must be ramped up to prevent the silent emergence and circulation of variants, which may pose major threats to public health.

Variants B.1.1.7 were introduced in the US via multiple independent events. CA, FL and NY were likely the first states to receive these variants in November 2020. Once introduced, the viruses spread from state to state, as evidenced by genomic and phylogeographic analyses. 🧬

B.1.1.7 has a deletion in the S gene (spike) that makes some RT-PCR tests fail (S gene target failure, SGTF). We collected SGTF data from four states (CT, NY, NJ, IL), and our logistic growth model projected a rise in B.1.1.7 frequency. 📈

As SARS-CoV-2 infects more people, mutations could lead to variants that may be more transmissible, escape antibody neutralization, or be more virulent. To prevent unnoticed viral emergence and transmission, we need to remain vigilant, and keep the genome surveillance efforts.

Human mobility is a major driver of infectious disease spread. With vaccination being rolled-out, while we still progress towards higher levels of population immunity, measures to mitigate COVID spread remain essential: mask wearing, physical distancing, proper ventilation, etc

Below you can find more information about our B.1.1.7 study, product of a joint effort by researchers from @Yale @CDC_AMD @UMich @ualbany @HealthNYGov @tempuslabs, among other national and international collaborators.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Some of the authors: @tdalpert @jessroth95 @alvalesano @marypetrone10 @mallerybreban @aewatkins6 @VogelsChantal @ChaneyKalinich @sdellicour @JosephFauver @dmaccannell @NathanGrubaugh