My take on what the result of the #TamilNaduElections could be. This is based on hundreds of conversations with people across the State including politicians, journalists and public over the last 5 days. The feedback I got is in this thread... #tamilnaduelection2021
1.Chennai:DMK seems headed for a comfortable win. AIADMK will be happy if they get more than 3-4 seats out of the 16.
2. Northern Belt: Vanniar consolidation has happened. Only question is how much. And has there been a counter polarization of other castes against AIADMK-BJP?
Out of the 78 seats in the Vanniar/Northern Belt there is a tight contest with a 50-50 split.
3. Kongu belt is clearly an AIADMK +edge area. They expect to win around 70% of the 58 seats in the region. If they do badly here, game over.
4. Cauvery Delta is a DMK+ win area.
There are a few seats in Delta that AIADMK+ fancies its chances in and so this region cd go 80-20 or 70-30 in favor of DMK+
5.The South is really the big question mark. Here it is advantage DMK+ but by how much?AMMK by all accounts seems to have underperformed except in 8-9 seats
So the rout of AIADMK+ in the region that was predicted is looking more like advantage DMK+ but not a sweep. Maximum uncertainty is here.
6.Kanyakumari is a sweep for DMK+. AIADMK+ will be lucky to win 1-2 seats here. Former Union Minister is on a bad wicket.
7.MNM and NTK are taking a sizable vote share. MNM in Chennai and Coimbatore in particular. NTK is more widespread. Whose vote is this? MNM vote appears to be from both AIADMK and DMK in even measure. NTK though seems to be taking predominantly DMK vote.
Surprising,as Seeman is more critical of DMK than AIADMK. But his vote is of the angry youth and that is largely an anti incumbency vote. Also the community groups he attracts are more pro DMK voters. So, is NTK hurting DMK? If there is a close contest in some seats they could.
It is in seats contested by allies this vote splitting is more pronounced.Many voters may have gone with MNM/NTK where there was no Rising sun on ticket.
8.Allies on both sides have not done as well as they expected.VCK faces struggle with its pot symbol not reaching voters
Congress and BJP are both underperforming.
9. Minority vote as expected has gone heavily to DMK+. However this does not seem to be 100%.Many Muslims seem to have voted MNM esp. in urban areas. Some Christians too have gone with MNM and NTK.
10. Devendrakula Vellalar outreach seems to have had very little effect.
11.Dalit vote in Northern belt has consolidated for DMK+ in seats where PMK has contested but not in seats where opponent is AIADMK.
12. Women voters seem to have favored AIADMK+ in slightly larger numbers
13. Money distribution seems to have been done in many places by both the big parties. However it appears from reports that AIADMK seems to have been the more efficient here covering more constituencies, more systematically and with higher amounts.
In some areas DMK seems to have pulled back at the last minute on this.
14. BJP tie up is hurting AIADMK in urban areas but not as much in rural areas.
15. So what will result be? Two theories going around. First is 150-160 for DMK+ and 65-75 for AIADMK+.
Second theory is a close contest with every seat being fought for.This scenario would see one side with 130 ish and another with 100 odd. Of course all this is speculation and there still could be a sweep for DMK+. But increasingly this is looking like a closer contest.
The 2016 result could be reversed with an edge to DMK or an even tighter contest could be on the cards. AIADMK may not be out of the race yet. All this is from feedback received and is not from exit polls or pollsters.
16. Kovilpatti: Slight edge to Kadambur Raju
17.Kamal fate depends on any tactical voting by DMK supporters to defeat BJP. He is on a sticky wicket.
18. Ministers in significant trouble: O.S.Manian, Rajendra Balaji, P.Benjamin, M.R.Vijayabaskar, Vellamandi Natarajan.
How does all this compare to what you have heard?

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More from @sumanthraman

10 Apr
@the_hindu reminded me it was the birth anniversary of an extraordinary physician and teacher of ours, Dr.A.M.Selvaraj. Prof.AMS as he was known was a legend in his life time. Immaculately dressed in a 3 piece suit & smoking a pipe, he reminded us of a "propah" British gentleman
His ability to diagnose tough cases had few equals and his evening clinic would go on from 5 p.m. until 2 a.m. or beyond. Sometimes patients wd just sleep over in the clinic and he wd see them in the morning. His laid back demeanor hid a razor sharp mind.
So many of the patients who came to see him were those whom other docs had not been able to diagnose and so one wd see a variety of clinical conditions. He had some kind of an intuition that enabled him to make the diagnosis, sometimes even without a systematic review.
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
Why the #AIADMKManifesto promise of a Govt job for every family is simply not possible.Thread....
TN has around 14 lakh State Govt employees. Roughly that would cover around 56 lakh people ( 4 ppl per family). Let us take only BPL families to see if this promise is feasible
TN has around 60 lakh BPL families. Presumably if one of them had a Govt job they wouldn't be below the poverty line. So this means that 60 lakh Govt jobs have to be given. That means number of Govt employees will go up from 14 lakh to around 75 lakh.
Now let us do the math. Today around 62% of State's revenues goes towards salaries and pensions for Govt staff. 1 lakh crore goes just for this. Salary component alone is around 65000 crore. If number of Govt staff increases by 5 times, wage bill alone goes up to 3.2 lakh crore
Read 8 tweets
25 Feb
The inescapable conclusion is that the 2nd wave of #Covid has stared in India. Not just in Maharashtra or Kerala. Cases are rising in many States,Punjab, Telangana,Tamil Nadu, Karnataka,Delhi etc.This is a big worry as we have wasted the last month by not speeding up vaccination
of the vulnerable. We cannot lockdown the economy again but we need to do the following ASAP.
1.Reintroduce the ban on crowds, large gatherings, rallies.
2.Enforce fines for not wearing masks.
3.Speed up vaccination by opening 24*7 vaccination centers
4.Encourage work from home
for those workers who can.
5.Start ICE campaign perhaps with celebrities saying that #COVID19 risk very much remains and that precautions must continue to be taken.
6.Enhance capacity for monitoring for new strains
7.Get rid of this app based registration process
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
#Covid will be controlled once the vaccine is rolled out. Right? And once we get more effective drugs to treat severe cases? Both of these involve big bucks for the Healthcare industry. Again a case of healthcare following the money. Billions of $ are being spent on vaccines
Billions more on research for new drugs but precious little is being spent in studying those who haven't got Covid. Yes, the answer to the Covid riddle may be in finding out who will not get infected rather than just knowing who will. Let me explain.
In this last year millions of healthcare workers in Hospitals and ICU's in particular have been exposed to #COVID19 . By all accounts the vast majority of them have NOT developed severe Covid disease. Some may have had asymptomatic infections and some mild to moderate disease
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20 Dec 20
The most puzzling aspect of #Covid is its reluctance to infect Chinese since April 2020. Of the 87000 cases China has reported so far 68000+ have been in Hubei province which got it first. Rest of China with a population of 1330 million has reported a total of <19000 cases.Thread
Beijing with population of 21 million has reported 961 cases and 9 deaths. Shanghai with population of 24 million has reported 1447 cases and 7 deaths. Chongqing with a population of 15 million says they hv had 560 cases and 6 deaths.
And Tianjin with 13 million people has reported 304 cases and 3 deaths. So the 4 largest cities of China with a combined population of 73 million have together reported 3272 cases with 25 deaths. Even a city state like Singapore had recorded more deaths (29)
Read 11 tweets
13 Dec 20
Just as farmers are feeding us, the tax paying public is feeding the farmers too.Subsidy on seeds,fertilizer,farm equipment,electricity,water are all paid from taxpayer money. MSP which is often artificially high is also funded by taxpayer. No income tax. Regular loan write offs
Yet most small farmers remain pitiably poor. Why?The solution cannot be more of the same,more subsidy or artificially high MSP. Romanticizing the poverty of the Indian farmer must stop. Farmers are not doing society a favor.They are trying to eke out a living the best they can
No farmer wants to be poor.73 years after Independence if most farmers want to quit,given the chance,we need to ask why.Have our policies,ostensibly for their benefit, failed to help? If the present system is doing great why are so many of them killing themselves each year?
Read 5 tweets

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