Thread by @sumanthraman

My take on what the result of the #TamilNaduElections could be. This is based on hundreds of conversations with people across the State including politicians, journalists and public over the last 5 days. The feedback I got is in this thread... #tamilnaduelection2021

1.Chennai:DMK seems headed for a comfortable win. AIADMK will be happy if they get more than 3-4 seats out of the 16.
2. Northern Belt: Vanniar consolidation has happened. Only question is how much. And has there been a counter polarization of other castes against AIADMK-BJP?

Out of the 78 seats in the Vanniar/Northern Belt there is a tight contest with a 50-50 split.
3. Kongu belt is clearly an AIADMK +edge area. They expect to win around 70% of the 58 seats in the region. If they do badly here, game over.
4. Cauvery Delta is a DMK+ win area.

There are a few seats in Delta that AIADMK+ fancies its chances in and so this region cd go 80-20 or 70-30 in favor of DMK+
5.The South is really the big question mark. Here it is advantage DMK+ but by how much?AMMK by all accounts seems to have underperformed except in 8-9 seats

So the rout of AIADMK+ in the region that was predicted is looking more like advantage DMK+ but not a sweep. Maximum uncertainty is here.
6.Kanyakumari is a sweep for DMK+. AIADMK+ will be lucky to win 1-2 seats here. Former Union Minister is on a bad wicket.

7.MNM and NTK are taking a sizable vote share. MNM in Chennai and Coimbatore in particular. NTK is more widespread. Whose vote is this? MNM vote appears to be from both AIADMK and DMK in even measure. NTK though seems to be taking predominantly DMK vote.

Surprising,as Seeman is more critical of DMK than AIADMK. But his vote is of the angry youth and that is largely an anti incumbency vote. Also the community groups he attracts are more pro DMK voters. So, is NTK hurting DMK? If there is a close contest in some seats they could.

It is in seats contested by allies this vote splitting is more pronounced.Many voters may have gone with MNM/NTK where there was no Rising sun on ticket.
8.Allies on both sides have not done as well as they expected.VCK faces struggle with its pot symbol not reaching voters

Congress and BJP are both underperforming.
9. Minority vote as expected has gone heavily to DMK+. However this does not seem to be 100%.Many Muslims seem to have voted MNM esp. in urban areas. Some Christians too have gone with MNM and NTK.

10. Devendrakula Vellalar outreach seems to have had very little effect.
11.Dalit vote in Northern belt has consolidated for DMK+ in seats where PMK has contested but not in seats where opponent is AIADMK.
12. Women voters seem to have favored AIADMK+ in slightly larger numbers

13. Money distribution seems to have been done in many places by both the big parties. However it appears from reports that AIADMK seems to have been the more efficient here covering more constituencies, more systematically and with higher amounts.

In some areas DMK seems to have pulled back at the last minute on this.
14. BJP tie up is hurting AIADMK in urban areas but not as much in rural areas.
15. So what will result be? Two theories going around. First is 150-160 for DMK+ and 65-75 for AIADMK+.

Second theory is a close contest with every seat being fought for.This scenario would see one side with 130 ish and another with 100 odd. Of course all this is speculation and there still could be a sweep for DMK+. But increasingly this is looking like a closer contest.

The 2016 result could be reversed with an edge to DMK or an even tighter contest could be on the cards. AIADMK may not be out of the race yet. All this is from feedback received and is not from exit polls or pollsters.
16. Kovilpatti: Slight edge to Kadambur Raju

17.Kamal fate depends on any tactical voting by DMK supporters to defeat BJP. He is on a sticky wicket.
18. Ministers in significant trouble: O.S.Manian, Rajendra Balaji, P.Benjamin, M.R.Vijayabaskar, Vellamandi Natarajan.
How does all this compare to what you have heard?