Why the #AIADMKManifesto promise of a Govt job for every family is simply not possible.Thread....
TN has around 14 lakh State Govt employees. Roughly that would cover around 56 lakh people ( 4 ppl per family). Let us take only BPL families to see if this promise is feasible
TN has around 60 lakh BPL families. Presumably if one of them had a Govt job they wouldn't be below the poverty line. So this means that 60 lakh Govt jobs have to be given. That means number of Govt employees will go up from 14 lakh to around 75 lakh.
Now let us do the math. Today around 62% of State's revenues goes towards salaries and pensions for Govt staff. 1 lakh crore goes just for this. Salary component alone is around 65000 crore. If number of Govt staff increases by 5 times, wage bill alone goes up to 3.2 lakh crore
This is not including pensions which will accrue later. Total revenue of State Govt from all sources is around 3 lakh crore. So Govt will have to borrow just to pay its Staff and there will be no money for anything else. Interest payment is already at 44000 crore each year.
If State borrows more as it will have to, interest increases too.Also as pensions kick in and wage revisions happen this will become even more unworkable. A State with over 8 crore people will be working only to feed its Govt employees.
Forget about what 75 lakh Govt staff will do when many feel that 14 lakh staff is already too many. How can any State afford this absurdity? @EPSTamilNadu shd not have signed off on such a ruinous scheme in the manifesto.He knows very well that it can't be done. #TNElection2021
There is a difference between offering freebies like a washing machine or solar stoves and offering a govt job. A freebie is a one time cost that can at worst be accommodated over 5 years. A Govt job means recurring expenditure for the next 50-60 years if pensions are added.
Let @AIADMKOfficial show us how they will accomplish this. Put out the numbers to be covered and costs. If they don't then we can assume that from their alliance partners they have learnt the art of "jumla" well. PS:Experts please opine on this. I am ready to stand corrected.

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More from @sumanthraman

25 Feb
The inescapable conclusion is that the 2nd wave of #Covid has stared in India. Not just in Maharashtra or Kerala. Cases are rising in many States,Punjab, Telangana,Tamil Nadu, Karnataka,Delhi etc.This is a big worry as we have wasted the last month by not speeding up vaccination
of the vulnerable. We cannot lockdown the economy again but we need to do the following ASAP.
1.Reintroduce the ban on crowds, large gatherings, rallies.
2.Enforce fines for not wearing masks.
3.Speed up vaccination by opening 24*7 vaccination centers
4.Encourage work from home
for those workers who can.
5.Start ICE campaign perhaps with celebrities saying that #COVID19 risk very much remains and that precautions must continue to be taken.
6.Enhance capacity for monitoring for new strains
7.Get rid of this app based registration process
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
#Covid will be controlled once the vaccine is rolled out. Right? And once we get more effective drugs to treat severe cases? Both of these involve big bucks for the Healthcare industry. Again a case of healthcare following the money. Billions of $ are being spent on vaccines
Billions more on research for new drugs but precious little is being spent in studying those who haven't got Covid. Yes, the answer to the Covid riddle may be in finding out who will not get infected rather than just knowing who will. Let me explain.
In this last year millions of healthcare workers in Hospitals and ICU's in particular have been exposed to #COVID19 . By all accounts the vast majority of them have NOT developed severe Covid disease. Some may have had asymptomatic infections and some mild to moderate disease
Read 9 tweets
20 Dec 20
The most puzzling aspect of #Covid is its reluctance to infect Chinese since April 2020. Of the 87000 cases China has reported so far 68000+ have been in Hubei province which got it first. Rest of China with a population of 1330 million has reported a total of <19000 cases.Thread
Beijing with population of 21 million has reported 961 cases and 9 deaths. Shanghai with population of 24 million has reported 1447 cases and 7 deaths. Chongqing with a population of 15 million says they hv had 560 cases and 6 deaths.
And Tianjin with 13 million people has reported 304 cases and 3 deaths. So the 4 largest cities of China with a combined population of 73 million have together reported 3272 cases with 25 deaths. Even a city state like Singapore had recorded more deaths (29)
Read 11 tweets
13 Dec 20
Just as farmers are feeding us, the tax paying public is feeding the farmers too.Subsidy on seeds,fertilizer,farm equipment,electricity,water are all paid from taxpayer money. MSP which is often artificially high is also funded by taxpayer. No income tax. Regular loan write offs
Yet most small farmers remain pitiably poor. Why?The solution cannot be more of the same,more subsidy or artificially high MSP. Romanticizing the poverty of the Indian farmer must stop. Farmers are not doing society a favor.They are trying to eke out a living the best they can
No farmer wants to be poor.73 years after Independence if most farmers want to quit,given the chance,we need to ask why.Have our policies,ostensibly for their benefit, failed to help? If the present system is doing great why are so many of them killing themselves each year?
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec 20
1.Hydrocarbon extraction
2.Sterlite
3.Kudankulam
4.Chennai-Salem Expressway
5.Neutrino
6.GAIL pipeline
7.Kattupalli Port
8.Uppur Thermal
Each one of these projects stalled/delayed.
Tamil Nadu is on its way to becoming a Kerala or Bengal. Oh! Kerala allowed GAIL & Vizhinjam Port
Those who say Kerala has highest social/educational indicators need to understand theirs is a remittance economy sustained by inflows from Gulf. 36% of Kerala's GDP is Gulf money. Without this their per capita income wd be half that of TN or at best 2/3rds.
Despite Gulf money per capita income of Kerala is less than TN. With a jobs crisis in Gulf due to the pandemic and falling Oil prices Kerala will face the moment of truth sooner than later.There is almost no project that causes zero environmental damage.
Read 12 tweets
24 Nov 20
My take on #Ayurveda doctors being allowed to perform surgery.
1.There is a 3 yr course called M.S. in Shalya Tantra (Surgery).This is offered by many Universities that offer Ayurveda courses.
2.However training is given mainly by Ayurveda doctors & not General Surgeons
3. Their reference books are both Ayurveda books and General Surgery books.
4.Apparently this has been going on for 25+ years.
5.Issue is that these surgeries are not being audited outside the Ayurveda Universities. So very little is known about their complications, outcomes etc
6.While draining an abscess or putting sutures to a skin injury may not be dangerous if done by Ayurveda doctors given surgical training,allowing them to do laparatomy (exploratory opening of abdomen) or eye surgeries like cataract/squint surgery clearly poses a risk to patients
Read 6 tweets

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