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12 Apr, 14 tweets, 5 min read
Ukraine update and analysis: 1/ Ukraine reports six ceasefire violations over the last 24 hours
facebook.com/pressjfo.news/…
2/ #UkraineAnalysis Ukraine's military claims that Russia is sending landing craft to the Black Sea from both its Northern and Baltic fleets
zn.ua/POLITICS/dejst…
3/ #UkraineAnalysis 3.Erdogan met Zelensky, resulting in Turkey reiterating its refusal to accept Russia's annexation of Crimea. Pro-Russian media launched a bitter attack on Erdogan in response
news.antiwar.com/2021/04/11/tur…
4/ #UkraineAnalysis CSU's Manfred Weber calls for the suspension of Russia from the SWIFT system, plus the siezure of oligarch accounts in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine. Says the Nordstream pipeline would have to be cancelled in this case.
faz.net/aktuell/politi…
5/ A former US general speculates that Putin's objective is to take the entire Black Sea Coast. #UkraineAnalysis
nytimespost.com/putin-is-eyein…
6/ Russia failed to attend an OSCE meeting called by Ukraine to clarify the reasons for its deployments.
osce.usmission.gov/meeting-reques…
7/ Earlier, on 6 April OSCE, reported one of its surveillance drones monitoring the Donbas conflict was jammed and unable to take off.
osce.org/special-monito…
8 / US Reaper drone extensively patrolled Ukraine's frontline with Donbas/Crimea over the weekend.
9/ Analysts I am in contact with believe
a. France/Germany have signalled their unwillingness to take military action in response to further land-grabs by Russia, and that in this phase Putin is testing out the US reaction....
9b/ ... The Kremlin's desired outcomes may include - de facto annexation of the Donbas to the Russian Federation; recognition of the Crimea annexation; the resumption of water supply from the River Dnieper to Crimea...
9c/ Western analysts think Ukraine's armed forces are not well enough supplied, led or organised to counter Russia's assembled forces, though they could inflict serious damage...
9d/ Ukranian analysts believe Russian forces in the region may be ready for action by 19 April, with 24/25 April as a realistic start date for any further movements....
10/ Here's the whole of today's #UkraineAnalysis in one file... most of this is from open sources... Image
Correction, it is an RQ4.

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Paul Mason Profile picture
14 Apr
Western paralysis over Putin's threat to Ukraine - where next? 1/ France and Germany have signalled no chance of military action if Putin invades; and no chance of Nato accession for Ukraine... my @NewStatesman column...
newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…
2/ Biden now thinking more about asset seizures, AML measures and enforcement on the tax havens/conduits than military action or blanket sanctions... newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…
3/ We need collective European security more than ever, via the EU and NATO - exactly what Johnson and his mate Trump spent years sabotaging.... but in no major European capital is there appetite for war with Russia over Ukraine... newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…
Read 6 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
10 Apr
Ukraine crisis - a summary of the last 24 hours:
1/ Ukraine army chief declared they have no intention of using military force to retake the Donbas.
english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
2. More shelling and remote minelaying on Donbas front line
liveuamap.com
3. Zelensky imposed sanctions on former president Yanukovich and other former ministers.
ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytic…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
9 Apr
No defence experts I talk to claim to be certain what Putin plans in Ukraine. What we know is: 1/ Russia launched a big military buildup, giving itself the ability a) break out of Crimea to the north and b) stage a landing on the Azov coast (map not mine h/t @mhmck)...
2/ Ukraine’s president Zelensky looks out of his depth. He has called for UKR to be allowed to join NATO, which is a non-starter. I say this as someone highly critical of Russia’s geopolitics and internal repression....
3/ I am told the Ukrainian military preparations look currently shambolic, as they believe the USA will ride diplomatically to their rescue and, in any case, are numerically and technologically outclassed...
Read 12 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
8 Apr
Alba, NIP, WEP... the rise of the popup party is about more than just networks lowering the barrier to entry... it's what happens when people contemplate the permanent rule of English Tory xenophobes... 1/ newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ British politics looks less like the A-Level Politics syllabus than at any time since the 1930s... "liberalism, conservatism and socialism" have all fragmented culturally... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ FPTP is holding fragmentation at bay, but if you look at Spain, Ireland, Germany or Italy - the same centrifugal forces in politics are there.... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
3 Apr
FCDO's @DominicRaab says he's "gravely concerned" by the Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. Me too, and we should be doing everything we can to calm things down. So what's going on? 1/ Here's the Russian deployment video traced on a map citeam.org/ru-forces-near…
2/ What is Putin trying to achieve? No Western government seems to possess a clear answer. This @ICDS_Tallinn analysis says: flareup, insertion of Russian peacekeepers followed by annexation icds.ee/en/rumours-of-…
3/ Meanwhile in Belarus, the slow but steady takeover of the private sector by Russian interests, and redirection of export traffic from the EU to the Russia atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Mason Profile picture
28 Mar
I could see today's anti-left briefings coming from within the PLP a mile off - here's what's driving it 1/ The social-democratic centre left is a theoretical deadzone ... it has no explanations for its own failure... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ ...So it's always a "failure to communicate" rather than the strategy itself.... The real problem - as I, @meadwaj and others point out - is that the Tory project has morphed radically... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ The Tories are now a machine for staying in power by throwing money at individual communities, demographics and problems... the central bank will subsidise that until the UK becomes a one-party state... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 10 tweets

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