Lots of media reports that UK & EU are edging closer towards a deal on the Protocol. I'm very sceptical. The gaps between the two remain substantive & substantial; indeed the press reports have been described to me as “surprising“. Short thread 1/
The gaps aren't only on SPS, where there's no meeting of the minds. There's well over 20 substantive issues to resolve & no agreement on whom the onus lies to fix them 2/
The EU wants a “roadmap“ from UK. HMG only agreed to a “work program“. The diff isn't semantics: the first implies all obligations fall on UK; the second it's a joint endeavour. The compromise “road plan” won't resolve this underlying problem 3/
Technical progress is of course likely/poss. @MarosSefcovic may even meet @DavidGHFrost. But UK side clear they're not seeing kind of flex they need to see to prevent problematic disruption in NI; either EU believes NI is a special space that deserves more flex, or it isn't 4/
For its part, EU still very sceptical about Govt's long run objectives. Is it really committed to an end state where Protocol will be fully implemented? From their perspective, all issues on the table have already been thoroughly discussed - & the outcome was.. the Protocol 5/
Violence in NI is putting pressure on both sides to adopt a more conciliatory tone. Esp @BorisJohnson who many tell me is in denial about role his Brexit deal is playing in sparking violence in NI. But the need to be seen to be constructive is v diff than actually closing gaps 6/
Even if the mood music is better, finding durable solutions that both can agree to is going to take some serious reflection & real work at both political, not just technical, level. They aren't close. Officials on both sides urging caution ENDS
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