The EU is coming around to the view that @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost ultimate objective is to create a context that allows them to argue the protocol doesn’t work - & must be revisited, renegotiated or scrapped 1/
A radicalised DUP, far from being a problem for Govt, is a weapon @10DowningStreet can use to achieve changes to it they seek. EU also believes HMG's tough approach is serving the Tories electoral interests (& Frost's personal career ambitions) well. Why would it change? 2/
Every story has two sides. UK officials rightly point out that Bxl & EU capitals have never wanted Brexit to succeed; a combination of @eucopresident, @EmmanuelMacron & historically, @donaldtuskEPP previous statements show how corrosive the EU's narrative towards UK has been 3/
May sought deeper relationship w/EU & was roundly humiliated by them. Officials on BOTH sides acknowledge this. Fr said Chequers was worse than no deal. Is it any wonder Johnson/Frost concluded only a tough approach can work? HMG thinks EU has ended up w relationship it deserves
The EU's focus on UK personalities - @michaelgove vs Frost - also deflects criticism away from the way it structurally deals with 3rd countries - largely on the basis of stereotype, where the hardest member state's line often prevails. A “lowest common denominator“ approach 5/
This is the context within which the current row should be seen. & why it's going to take real time to resolve. Narrowly it's about technical fixes/easements to the GB-NI border. Broadly, it's about UK sovereignty/SM integrity - and EVERYTHING that has happened since 2016
ENDS
ENDS
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