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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
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1 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Although @EmmanuelMacron approval rating is down by 2 points to 39% in latest monthly Paris-Match Ifop poll, I think @Elysee will be pretty happy with these scores 1/4
parismatch.com/Actu/Sondage-P…
True, other recent polls show a similar modest fall. And all were taken before last night’s announcement of a “lockdown light” for whole of France. But numbers cd have been much worse - considering severity of new UK-variant driven surge in Covid cases & acute cases in Fr 2/4
Macron is paying, but not paying severely yet, for his decision to reject a third lockdown in late Jan. But a year from elections, he is still better placed than any French President this late in their term - for several decades 3/4
The polling on his national TV address last night is also not bad. Accordong to a Harris Intercative poll for LCI, 57% of French people found the Pres “convincing” 4/4
lci.fr/politique/sond…

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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
26 Mar
The UK Govt led by @BorisJohnson isn't bothered about EU. “Global Britain” is about other parts of world eg US & Indo-Pacific. Its domestic agenda is about “levelling up”. Yet the very success of these initiatives depend on a more productive relationship with EU

Thread 1/
There are many eg's where influence & impact of Global Britain would be enhanced by a more collaborative dynamic with EU. Most obvious: Govt's desire to work closely with @JoeBiden. He's been clear he expects HMG to honour WA, TCA & not jeopardise GFA 2/
HMG also has strong interest in working with EU (& US) to edge up global climate standards. A political success at COP26 in Glasgow in Nov would be big vindication for the Global Britain Johnson wants to lead. Yet it can only realistically be achieved by working with EU 3/
Read 15 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
15 Mar
V interesting interview by @VJMallet & @DavidKeo in today's @FT. The French interior minister Gérald Darmanin sails close to the wind sometimes, but there’s nothing here which is incompatible with Macron’s balanced approach to radical Islam 1/

ft.com/content/4050f0…
Darmanin says that his approach is intended to prevent more French people from being tempted by Lepennism. Is that the same thing as running after far-right voters, as he & Macron are sometimes accused of doing? I don't think so 2/
His declared aim is to challenge Le Pen on her own ground to dissuade wavering voters from voting for the far right. Some may find that shocking. But why? 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
15 Mar
The EU Ambassador (“Coreper“) & Sherpa nexus has always been the key channel for getting stuff done in Europe. But HMG no longer sits in Coreper & @BorisJohnson no longer has a Europe Sherpa. All EU roads instead now lead to Frost - who sits in Cabinet. This isn't good 1/
It means Lindsay Appleby, HMG's new EU Ambo, has a much harder job in Bxl - less access to his EU peers than his predecessors; a more hierarchical set of relationships in London with just a direct line up to Frost 2/
The UK & EU are also currently arguing about the status of the EU delegation in London; this has further impacted access of HMG in Bxl. In short term, this will certainly aggravate the ability to find joint solutions to frictions on GB-NI border 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
11 Mar
The EU is coming around to the view that @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost ultimate objective is to create a context that allows them to argue the protocol doesn’t work - & must be revisited, renegotiated or scrapped 1/
A radicalised DUP, far from being a problem for Govt, is a weapon @10DowningStreet can use to achieve changes to it they seek. EU also believes HMG's tough approach is serving the Tories electoral interests (& Frost's personal career ambitions) well. Why would it change? 2/
Every story has two sides. UK officials rightly point out that Bxl & EU capitals have never wanted Brexit to succeed; a combination of @eucopresident, @EmmanuelMacron & historically, @donaldtuskEPP previous statements show how corrosive the EU's narrative towards UK has been 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
3 Mar
Orban's departure from @EPPGroup @EPP is a BIG deal & a big strategic loss for him in Europe - he'll now lose both the influence & protection the group provided him 1/
As biggest, most influential political family in Europe, EPP has strongest tradition of policy co-ordination, esp pre European Council's. Afforded Orban huge influence with Heads of State & ability to build alliances across centre-right. No longer 2/
He'll also lose protection. Rule of law issues obviously stink to high heaven in Hungary, but exposing them wd simply have made EPP look bad - or so the logic went. Also no longer 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
25 Feb
.@EmmanuelMacron Govt has lost control of its message on Islam & Islamism & his reputation is taking a massive battering abroad - esp in US (@nytimes @washingtonpost). But his approach - not without errors & misjudgements - is far more balanced than critics claim Thread 1/
Macron’s recent troubles stem from recent, stupid remarks made by his higher education minister, Frédérique Vidal, who announced an investigation into so-called “Islamo-gauchiste” (Islamo-leftist) influence at French universities 2/
“Islamo-gauchisme” has long been an issue in France. It means, in essence, an alleged alliance between parts of the French hard left (anti-capitalist & often anti-Semitic) with extreme & sometimes violent forms of Islamist ideology 3/
Read 23 tweets

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