The EU Ambassador (“Coreper“) & Sherpa nexus has always been the key channel for getting stuff done in Europe. But HMG no longer sits in Coreper & @BorisJohnson no longer has a Europe Sherpa. All EU roads instead now lead to Frost - who sits in Cabinet. This isn't good 1/
It means Lindsay Appleby, HMG's new EU Ambo, has a much harder job in Bxl - less access to his EU peers than his predecessors; a more hierarchical set of relationships in London with just a direct line up to Frost 2/
The UK & EU are also currently arguing about the status of the EU delegation in London; this has further impacted access of HMG in Bxl. In short term, this will certainly aggravate the ability to find joint solutions to frictions on GB-NI border 3/
As of now HMG position is basically: “We're going to provide EU with lots more evidence to show it that its concerns over “goods at risk“ are exaggerated; they know we're currently aligned & we'll inform them if things change“. EU position is basically: “We need a deal on SPS“ 4/
Bridging these gaps - & others in future - will require effective, informal back channels, as the most imp discussions are always the ones that take place before everyone is in the (Joint Committee) room. But whether pol realities in London allow for them remains to be seen 5/5
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V interesting interview by @VJMallet & @DavidKeo in today's @FT. The French interior minister Gérald Darmanin sails close to the wind sometimes, but there’s nothing here which is incompatible with Macron’s balanced approach to radical Islam 1/
Darmanin says that his approach is intended to prevent more French people from being tempted by Lepennism. Is that the same thing as running after far-right voters, as he & Macron are sometimes accused of doing? I don't think so 2/
His declared aim is to challenge Le Pen on her own ground to dissuade wavering voters from voting for the far right. Some may find that shocking. But why? 3/
The EU is coming around to the view that @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost ultimate objective is to create a context that allows them to argue the protocol doesn’t work - & must be revisited, renegotiated or scrapped 1/
A radicalised DUP, far from being a problem for Govt, is a weapon @10DowningStreet can use to achieve changes to it they seek. EU also believes HMG's tough approach is serving the Tories electoral interests (& Frost's personal career ambitions) well. Why would it change? 2/
Every story has two sides. UK officials rightly point out that Bxl & EU capitals have never wanted Brexit to succeed; a combination of @eucopresident, @EmmanuelMacron & historically, @donaldtuskEPP previous statements show how corrosive the EU's narrative towards UK has been 3/
Orban's departure from @EPPGroup@EPP is a BIG deal & a big strategic loss for him in Europe - he'll now lose both the influence & protection the group provided him 1/
As biggest, most influential political family in Europe, EPP has strongest tradition of policy co-ordination, esp pre European Council's. Afforded Orban huge influence with Heads of State & ability to build alliances across centre-right. No longer 2/
He'll also lose protection. Rule of law issues obviously stink to high heaven in Hungary, but exposing them wd simply have made EPP look bad - or so the logic went. Also no longer 3/
.@EmmanuelMacron Govt has lost control of its message on Islam & Islamism & his reputation is taking a massive battering abroad - esp in US (@nytimes@washingtonpost). But his approach - not without errors & misjudgements - is far more balanced than critics claim Thread 1/
Macron’s recent troubles stem from recent, stupid remarks made by his higher education minister, Frédérique Vidal, who announced an investigation into so-called “Islamo-gauchiste” (Islamo-leftist) influence at French universities 2/
“Islamo-gauchisme” has long been an issue in France. It means, in essence, an alleged alliance between parts of the French hard left (anti-capitalist & often anti-Semitic) with extreme & sometimes violent forms of Islamist ideology 3/
I've been of view for some time that TCA represents high point in what's likely to be a difficult & deteriorating UK/EU relationship. Despite public pronouncements to contrary, in private, officials on both sides now acknowledge that this seems likely 1/5
For EU - Because HMG continues to misrepresent deal it struck to public & blame EU for its consequences. EU finds gap between Govt's rhetoric & reality unreal. This is killing trust. Reduces influence of more moderate member states that are open to addressing problems in TCA 2/5
For UK - Because Tory strategists continue to see electoral benefit - with red wall voters & constraining Labour - of a hard line on EU. Crystallised by Frost appointment, who as a believer in EU divergence, will now sit in Cabinet & advise on domestic regulation & reform 3/5
Was good to speak to @MarkUrban01@BBCNewsnight last night on UK/EU deal. In case you missed it, I think TCA will basically be as good as it gets - for quite some time. Four reasons in this mini-thread 1/
1: Govt wants to diverge. Whether symbolic or substantive is yet to be resolved between pragmatic & ideological Tory €sceptics. But only q is how far/fast. 3 March budget cd provide some clues. Sunak likely to say something about divergence agenda in context of Covid recovery 2/
1b: Good eg is equivalence for financial services, which remains unlikely. Govt doesn't want to be rule-taker from Bxl; thinks sector will be better regulated by HMT/BoE. EU also not keen; believes trust & stable relations are pre-requisites, both of which are lacking with HMG 3/