Thread by @Mij_Europe

The UK Govt led by @BorisJohnson isn't bothered about EU. “Global Britain” is about other parts of world eg US & Indo-Pacific. Its domestic agenda is about “levelling up”. Yet the very success of these initiatives depend on a more productive relationship with EU

Thread 1/

There are many eg's where influence & impact of Global Britain would be enhanced by a more collaborative dynamic with EU. Most obvious: Govt's desire to work closely with @JoeBiden. He's been clear he expects HMG to honour WA, TCA & not jeopardise GFA 2/

HMG also has strong interest in working with EU (& US) to edge up global climate standards. A political success at COP26 in Glasgow in Nov would be big vindication for the Global Britain Johnson wants to lead. Yet it can only realistically be achieved by working with EU 3/

Across the board - whether in relation to Govt's objectives in sciences & AI or the impact of UK's foreign policy - the conclusion is same. A constructive relationship with EU will further Johnson's Global Britain goals 4/

A functioning relationship with EU depends upon implementation of the NI Protocol. Nothing can/will improve until Govt reaffirms its commitment to it. @DavidGHFrost should end speculation HMG is seeking to undermine it, whittle it away, hollow it out by showing it can’t work 5/

This requires Frost to work through the Joint Committee with @MarosSefcovic. Unilateral decisions will only further undermine trust (if that's even poss) & co-operation that will ultimately prove counterproductive for HMG ambition for Global Britain 6/

But making Protocol work also requires pragmatism from EU. HMG isn't going to do a deal on food, animal, & plant standards. Rightly/wrongly, No10 thinks it will limit its ability to offer Agri concessions & so conclude a trade deal with US. Alternative fixes have to be found 7/

The customs data EU has been asking for would be a start. UK officials need to show Bxl/capitals there's little threat to integrity of SM (ie that there aren't significant trade flows from GB-NI that then enter RoI). Cd ease frictions by alleviating scope & frequency of checks 8/

If Govt engages in a serious, collaborative process to implement Protocol, imp goodwill could then flow into broader UK/EU relationship. For eg, the @EU_Commission wd be less likely to punish divergence that comes about bc EU is raising its standards & UK isn't following suit 9/

(After all, the big EU fear - that the Govt would proactively embark upon a “Singapore on Thames” deregulatory agenda - now seems unlikely. @RishiSunak budget in Feb, which signalled an increase in corporation tax, actually did opposite) 10/

With more goodwill, other enhancements to TCA that wd benefit both sides cd then also become poss: a deal on labour mobility, mutual recognition of qualifications or greater regulatory co-operation that enables more “equivalence” & more cross-border financial services trade 11/

But for all this, two things have to happen. First, EU has to recognise that UK has left & that it is no longer the priority. HMG wants to focus on all things non-EU: US, Indo-Pacific, levelling up, skills. Focus of this Govt is very much there 12/

Second, UK has to realise that although it has left EU, it can’t wish away issues WA/TCA create. Also has to recognise that all of the things Govt now wants to prioritise - Global Britain - will more likely succeed if it has good relations with EU. This depends on Protocol 13/

Both sides should now seek to depoliticise their relationship. Make it boring. Focus in on technical fixes to Protocol. This won't be easy, given electoral calendar next year (Stormont & France) & suspicion in Bxl that Govt sees electoral advantage in hard line with EU 14/

But it is important. As this week’s row on vaccines shows, both sides - & global economy - will do better when they work together rather than fight

ENDS

Full piece here: theguardian.com/commentisfree/…