Taking this one step further, you HAVE to watch this review of the JAMA study.
As a reminder, this is a CDC study claiming over 50% of transmission is caused by asymp (Fauci).
They use a model where they ASSUME asymp is 75% as infectious as symptomatic.
As a reminder, this is a CDC study claiming over 50% of transmission is caused by asymp (Fauci).
They use a model where they ASSUME asymp is 75% as infectious as symptomatic.
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1381448535665745920
Lee paper (9):
- Viral load is similar between asymp and symp
- "Viral load is not the same thing as infectiousness or transmissability"
Johansson (JAMA author) used that to claim asymp infectious is 100% as much as symptomatic (fed into the 75% model assumption).
/2
- Viral load is similar between asymp and symp
- "Viral load is not the same thing as infectiousness or transmissability"
Johansson (JAMA author) used that to claim asymp infectious is 100% as much as symptomatic (fed into the 75% model assumption).
/2
Chaw paper (#15):
- Symptomatic was 2.7X as presymp and asymp COMBINED
- Presymp more infectious than asymp
Johansson counts this as asymp being 40-140% as infectious but that does not match the paper.
/3
- Symptomatic was 2.7X as presymp and asymp COMBINED
- Presymp more infectious than asymp
Johansson counts this as asymp being 40-140% as infectious but that does not match the paper.
/3
McEvoy review paper (#16):
- Separates asymp from presymp
- Found very little data with no certainty
- Assumed 40-70% infectiousness
Johansson used the 40-70% as-is.
When combined, Johansson chose 75% for the model, which automatically creates the expected high asymp% outcome.
- Separates asymp from presymp
- Found very little data with no certainty
- Assumed 40-70% infectiousness
Johansson used the 40-70% as-is.
When combined, Johansson chose 75% for the model, which automatically creates the expected high asymp% outcome.
Final words:
- Johansson paper likely will be used in CDC guidelines and official recommendations (e.g. Fauci)
- Baseline assumption of 75% asymp infectiousness is COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED
- No policy should be based on this paper
- Any future work by this team should be questioned
- Johansson paper likely will be used in CDC guidelines and official recommendations (e.g. Fauci)
- Baseline assumption of 75% asymp infectiousness is COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED
- No policy should be based on this paper
- Any future work by this team should be questioned
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