Lee paper (9):
- Viral load is similar between asymp and symp
- "Viral load is not the same thing as infectiousness or transmissability"
Johansson (JAMA author) used that to claim asymp infectious is 100% as much as symptomatic (fed into the 75% model assumption).
/2
Chaw paper (#15):
- Symptomatic was 2.7X as presymp and asymp COMBINED
- Presymp more infectious than asymp
Johansson counts this as asymp being 40-140% as infectious but that does not match the paper.
/3
McEvoy review paper (#16):
- Separates asymp from presymp
- Found very little data with no certainty
- Assumed 40-70% infectiousness
Johansson used the 40-70% as-is.
When combined, Johansson chose 75% for the model, which automatically creates the expected high asymp% outcome.
Final words:
- Johansson paper likely will be used in CDC guidelines and official recommendations (e.g. Fauci)
- Baseline assumption of 75% asymp infectiousness is COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED
- No policy should be based on this paper
- Any future work by this team should be questioned
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Lots of data to look at for AZ. Holiday behavior patterns both for residents (when they get tested) and gov't (when they process the results) are difficult to predict, so it's important to look closely at the details.
First, Cases.
/1
Today, 17k cases were reported, but it's important to know the difference between Report Date and Date of Specimen Collection. You see in my chart that there was a major dip in cases right when very few tests were performed on the 24th-26th despite 2 being weekdays.
/2
Those who would have tested, but didn't, showed up to get tested on the 27-29th. Due to this, we see the 2 highest single case dates on 12/28-12/29, but the 7-day-avg is still lower than the 12/23 peak currently.
- Hospitalizations bottomed 4 weeks ago and then increased tangibly 2 weeks ago. That new increase trend already started abating the past 4 days
- Reported Deaths down 83 Week-over-Week (WoW)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting now in mega-hyperdrive and some states now include antigen positives (not antibody)
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 15 WoW
- ICUs sizable jump last 2 weeks but peaking again already
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Last 10+ days have seen a real increase in Pos% that coincides with a bump in national CLI
- Test Positivity up 1.0 from trough
- Daily Test avg above 1M for 26 days
- Increase rate much lower than June surge