House price growth in northern cities and towns is continuing to outpace southern locations, including London, according to the latest UK Land Registry data.

thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgage…
Liverpool had risen 16.7% since the UK first went into lockdown last year.

Meanwhile...

In the City of London, the capital's financial district, prices were down 6.5% since March last year. In Westminster and Tower Hamlets, property prices were down 5% & 4.7% respectively.
Australian residential property markets are super hot, with all capital cities experiencing strong auction clearance rates and rapidly rising values.

realestate.com.au/news/property-…
“CoreLogic’s national home value index recorded a 2.8% rise in March, the fastest rate of appreciation since October 1988 (3.2%).

…exceptionally strong growth conditions remain broad-based, with values rising by at least 1.4% across each of the capital cities.”
Central banks are artificially holding rates as low as possible, not only in AU but worldwide.

If rates stay low, #Brisbane is as affordable to buy (service the debt) as it was in 2002 & 1980.

The chart below shows interest payments as % of average salary.

The keyword is "IF".
A lot of foreigners think #Australia has a property bubble, but relative to other global cities prices are inexpensive.

We believe #Perth (Western Australia) is one of those.

After 81 months of falling dwelling prices, the Perth residential market has most likely hit a bottom.
Meanwhile, another market in which we are quite active is #Prague (Czech Republic).

Premium property prices are reaching close to 130,000 Czech Krona per m2 (5,900 USD / 5,000 EUR).

Prague's market is turning RED HOT & making us very uncomfortable.
Residental prices across the Czech Republic are going through a once-in-a-lifetime boom and we are happy to have participated.

Prague has seen prices rise by over 100% since 2013.

However, sharp value rise & unaffordability are making us very uncomfortable investors.
Comparing Prague to others in Europe based on price to average annual salary isn't a pretty picture.

Prague is one of the most expensive cities in the EU, with valuations & affordability touching almost 14X average salary, while the whole country is at 11X.

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More from @TihoBrkan

11 Apr
At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.

But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?

"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.

'What is your edge?'

When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?

Whether it’s trading-wise, whether it’s research-wise that basically sets you aside?

Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"

— Jim Chanos
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
Precious metals are a disappointment to the investment community.

Cryptocurrencies have stolen the attention, gold's centuries of history all but forgotten & the business news anchors laugh at metals.

For contrarians, it's probably a good time to start paying attention.
Everyone has their own view on this asset class.

There is a die-hard Goldbugs camp, there is also a lot of hate towards Gold, plus everything in between.

Gold has become very much disliked in the West, while countries like China & India have a strong tradition towards it.
Gold floated in the early 1970s, but my chart starts in 1988 — cutting out the 70s is maybe not a fair way to measure its performance.

Regardless, it should be clear that Gold has had periods of very strong returns (25% CAGR over a decade) as well as disappointing periods.
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr
Emerging Markets thread.

The EM stocks have been consolidating for 14 years plagued by one crisis after another.

For their stocks to outperform, we need:

• sustained weaker $USD
• accelerating growth vs DM
• higher commodities (inflation)
• booming global exports (demand) Image
Relative to the US market, Emerging Markets have been underperforming since 2011 — coincides with the bottom in the $USD.

The underperformance is actually worse if we remove the China Tech sector (Tencent, Alibaba, etc).

EM: a value trap or once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? Image
Within the Emerging Economies complex, Asia has been the outperformer while the rest of the countries have lagged considerably.

The chart below shows the EM ex Asia, which recently traded below the March 2009 bottom (11 years ago).

These countries are dirt cheap, in our view. Image
Read 7 tweets
31 Mar
Cash levels have constantly remained low throughout this bull market.

The majority are invested & any turbulence sees central banks step in, saving the day.

However, low cash will eventually be a concern when forced liquidation starts since there will be no marginal buyers. Image
S&P 500 is approaching a record valuation of 3 times forward-looking sales.

Even if the market was to crash by -30%, valuations would be expensive since the market would trade at around 2X revenue — this was a top back in the year 2000.

CBs have created a monster bubble. Image
Jeff Gundlach is saying the US stock market is incredibly overpriced by any traditional metric and the next crash will be for the history books.

Thinks the $VIX will spike to never-before-seen levels surpassing the crash of 1987 & 2008.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bi…
Read 16 tweets
30 Mar
Mezzanine financing is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital, whether it's in public or illiquid markets — and yet it is very misunderstood.

In this super thread, which will be ongoing, I will disclose the theory & practice I've learned about the asset.
Mezzanine financing occurs in situations where a business or a project has insufficient creditworthiness or collateral to borrow in classic (& cheaper) form like a bank loan or senior debt & potentially where owners/sponsors refuse to dilute shareholders or give up legal control.
From what I've learned over the years, mezzanine deals are looked at differently in the US vs other developed markets like Eurozone & Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions.

There is a large misunderstanding between players, both with private equity & real estate, due to these developments.
Read 43 tweets
30 Mar
A collection of threads, which will focus on what we are doing with our capital and the strategies we employ to achieve targeted returns in public & alternative assets.

None of this is advice, but merely a journal of how we allocate & opportunities we are attracted to.
We invest in real estate passively (LPs) & actively (sole ownership or JVs).

We also focus on residential strategies like value add & development in several countries.

This thread showcases one of our luxury value adds in Prague. 👇

A mega-thread on mezzanine financing.

Also known as "the funding gap" between classic bank loans & common equity ownership, it is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital from the risk vs reward standpoint.

Read 5 tweets

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