Virus, vaccines, and variants. My heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, ICU admissions in England.
New this week - charts for vaccine takeup and variants.
Vaccines - good; variants - concerning. We need to ensure that we use the data before unlocking further.
All charts this week start from the start of the vaccine rollout and show the (very severe) third wave.
Detected cases.
Increasing in 10-19 year olds (likely due to lateral flow testing in schools).
Increasing in 5-9 year olds. These are not routinely given lateral flow tests.
Other ages - rates decreasing.
Same chart as above - monochrome verion
Positivity - Males & Positivity - Females
Reductions except slight rise in 10-19 year olds.
There is low positivity in 10-19s due to mass lateral flow testing.
Hospitalizations
Very encouraging decreases in hospitalizations
ICU/HDU Admissions
Very encouraging decreases in most age groups.
65-74 ICU/HDU admissions have increased this week.
New Heatmap: Vaccine Takeup
Excellent takeup (first doses) for 70+.
Note however that there remain several hundred thousand unvaccinated over 70s who may be vulnerable.
Totals increasing for under-70s.
Totals: 39% given first doses; 3% given second doses.
New Chart: Vaccine Variants
This is an issue for Test 4 of the unlocking Roadmap
Significant increase (from a relatively low level) for P1 (Manaus) variant (red); B1.351 (S Africa) (purple) increasing. Some cases detected by surge testing
This is 'data' in 'data not dates'
Here is my @skynews interview with @SkyNewsIsabel setting out the data that will inform further steps in the roadmap out of lockdown.
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Public Health England @PHE_uk have published the update for variants of concern and variants under investigation. Note that these are cases detected (and that these may be detected as the result of surge testing).
Rises in VUI B.1.525 (+26 since Tuesday) & VUI B1.1.318 (+10)
Here is the data table (data from @PHE_uk). Note B.1.1.7 is excluded in the chart above. To emphasise, these are the result of non-uniform testing and sequencing.
They find that fewer than 1 in 5 students (17.8%) had antibodies at the end of the Autumn term (which imples that more than 80% were susceptible to Covid).
"SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3) ..."
"... ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities" (the universities are not named - 'University A' to 'University E')
The Government's roadmap for reopening has been published.
I will add commentary as I read through.
From first glance, there are no numbers for thresholds, which does in some way question the notion of 'data not dates'.
There are however a lot of dates in the document.
The roadmap itself is only 15 pages long.
It sets out 'principles'
- whole of England rather than regional response
- "led by data not dates" (see above)
- five weeks between steps - 'no earlier than'
- face-to-face education a priority
On the face of it, this does seem to be more weighted to dates rather than data.
It will be interesting to see if *any* quantitative thresholds for cases, hospitalizations, or pressure on hospitals are set out on Monday, or whether the only thing that are set are dates.
It is obviously a risk, I'd reports are correct, to send all school children back on the same date. One critical thing missing is the ability to adapt. If R exceeds 1 and hospitalizations increase as a result of this, all that can be done is to close face to face...
schooling with the effect this will have on children's continuity of education. It would be prudent to send *some* children back and see the effect before committing all children.
Remember, it is not just the interactions between children (which *could* be mitigated...