Even today they’re are lots of people utterly convinced the entire Conservative party is engaged in some huge Brexit conspiracy.

The truth is actually in a way worse but....for many people disappointing.

Vast majority of Tory MPs fall into 2 camps....
1. MPs who’ve been around the block & realize brexit is a rapidly accelerating faulty answer to the wrong question but can’t say much or they’ll be destroyed & simply replaced by someone worse

2. Ex provincial town councillors who wouldn’t know a hedge fund from a hedge trimmer
3/

We’re in a car that’s driven off the edge. We’ll have some damage but no one knows how bad. So we wave flags & sing so not to alarm the kids.

Once again do you really expect these people to have worked out the trade & security implications of Brexit:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Ander…
4/

Once again
These people have no idea.
You really think these people have weighed up the implications.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Ath…
5/

These people aren’t evil.
It’s worse than that.
They’re mediocre dullards who found themselves by a series of unlikely events elected as MP.

The sort everyone at school thought would at best amount to a mediocre job suddenly responsible for the trickiest UK era since WWII.

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More from @nicktolhurst

16 Apr
If Brexit is the "Will of the People" based on the 2019 election which was explicitly fought & won on Boris Johnson's "oven ready deal" in order to bring the Brexit referndum to fruition...

...then this means the Northen Irish Protocol must be the "Will of the People", too.
The next paradox:

The UK government has spent the last 4 years seemingly putting a US trade deal ahead of Northern Ireland...

...now finds it faces a US govt that puts Northern Ireland, and the Northen Irish Protocol, ahead of a trade deal with the UK.
Which leads to the next paradox...

Brexit, that was sold on the ability to do trade deals with the US & non-Europen countries....

...now depends on breaking the very deal that was sold as delivering Brexit & safeguarding the union in order to do those deals.
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
There are still a few remainers who think a “purist rejoin” party can be a “reverse UKIP” and move & accelerate Britain towards Rejoin.

There are many, many reasons why this won’t work.

The main one being this...
2/

UKIP drew many voters from traditional Labour, far right & non voters. So the supposed UKIP threat to the Tories was much less than many supposed. At worst it was ambiguous.

But which voters would a purist rejoin party drew from..?
3/

A purist rejoin party is clearly going to draw more younger voters from Labour/LibDems and in likely more prosperous urban areas.

These areas have often been turning away from Conservatives in last decade.
This would split the non Tory vote in crucial seats.
Read 5 tweets
15 Apr
The real issue for the UK - which UK media are awkwardly & deeply conflicted over is this:

As the post Trump US & EU are attempting to rebuild & recast the western democratic alliance..

..is the UK fully signed up to this...or is it holding out for a return of Trump & Trumpism?
2/

On every level from Climate change to tax haven policy, China & Russia only by US & Europe working together can real progress be made.

There is no other option.
But for UK to be fully signed on to this requires it be fully supportive of the EUs survival, influence & success.
3/

Much as Brits might demur: the UK during the Johnson premiership was effectively in a coalition with Trump & to a certain extent Russia.

It’s now gone to actively seeking to replace the EU to..well its unclear.
Read 8 tweets
12 Apr
I tend not to post on COVID - I’ve no special knowledge in this area.

But it strikes me a likely outcome is vaccines will be successful in national terms but new variants spreading internationally.

So we could find normality returning locally...but international travel limited.
2/

If this is right - & it’s just speculation - we may find that countries will, to avoid locking themselves down, attempt to form stronger regional groups with common strict import/personal controls.

This would accelerate regional groupings along (sub)continental lines.
3/

These regional groups would have to impose strict migration/travel controls on those entering. Perhaps testing or even vaccinations for new variants.

But the area would have to be as tight as national controls.
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr
Nigel Boardman appointed to lead investigation into David Cameron lobbying scandal.

Boardman knows Cameron well as he was personally appointed by Cameron to the highly prestigious British Museum trustees.

Boardman was also implicated in fee gouging in the Carillon bankruptcy.
2/

Also not really clear if Nigel Boardman’s task of leading an investigation into David Cameron’s lobbying is compatible with his other position - a non-executive role on the board of the UK govt BEIS department.
3/

Interestingly Boardman is responsible for seeing that govt contracts & business was carried out properly - so in a sense Boardman has now been tasked with investigating his - and his employer’s - the Govt - own failure.
Read 4 tweets
10 Apr
+UPDATE+

Dominic Cummings new “tech consultancy” has had meetings with at least 2 UK ministries to get funding for science projects.

Cummings new firm - SIWAH - is named after the Egyptian oasis where Alexander the Great is said to have confirmed his divinity & Pharaoh status.
2/

Dominic Cummings new firm barely registered a month old with Cummings the only person (officially) involved so far.
3/

For a company with no capital, assets, staff or history to be able to see govt employees or ministers would be, at the very least, highly irregular.
Read 8 tweets

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