So I've done a first read of the leaked CPC plan and have a few thoughts. #cdnecon#cdnpoli
1. Carbon pricing.
This will get all the attention today, and understandably given the CPC has made it their mantra to oppose carbon prices on households. So it's good they've relented, but the details matter here. And the details make this largely a gimmick...
Every $ spent will be returned to your personal account. Think of it like swiping a Carbon Miles™️ card at the pump. So all those critiques of the Lib rebates ("why have a tax if you just get your money back") are actually valid here! The catch is your spending is restricted...
But if the green categories are wide enough, or include items you were going to spend anyway, there is literally zero incentive created by this Carbon Miles gimmick. It's carbon pricing in name only, not as intended. It may trick some 905 voters though.
2. Large emitter pricing
Plan to keep it in place, charging a carbon price on large emitters above baselines of emissions. But instead of rising to $170/t, they plan to link the price to the EU's cap and trade price. That's currently trading for 50 euro in 2030.
They also plan to include Border Carbon Adjustments - essentially taxing importers without comparable carbon prices. This is sensible policy, already in discussions now. Heavy emphasis on China as a target for the BCAs in this document.
3. Low Carbon Fuel Standard
This is surprising. After calling the LCFS the sneak attack carbon tax, they seem to be endorsing it.
4. Targeted spending.
Here's where the CPC goes back to its bread and butter. Not small govt, but targeted spending on its climate faves: CCUS and Nukes.
Agree or disagree, but at least they're consistent. Not Biden style dollars, but a few billion being invested in these.
5. LNG
Predictably, LNG exports feature prominently in this plan. I see this as a very short lived opportunity, if at all. Not something to be a large part of any climate plan.
6. Other stuff
There's lots on smart grids and transmission. Music to my ears. There's talk of taxing frequent flyers, luxury cars, and 2nd homes. Not what i'd expect from the CPC, but hey, what day is it anyway? Also the usual clean buildings stuff, nature-based solutions, etc
Overall:
The carbon pricing stuff will get all the attention but it's largely a gimmick. May trick some climate-leaning 905 voters. There's some typical CPC favourites in here, but also lots of good stuff too. Will say it's a *big* improvement over Scheer's plan (though low bar)
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Big delivery day (over 12.6M doses now delivered)!!
Canada now has 22% of its population with one dose or more.
26.5% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.7% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (30.1%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (7.0%).
Yesterday 8 out of 10 provinces in Canada met the required pace to vaccinate 75% of population with one dose or more by June 30th.
Nearly 300k doses today! Canada now has over 21% of its population with one dose or more, over 25% of adults.
25.6% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.7% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (29.2%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (6.5%).
Yesterday 6 out of 10 provinces in Canada met the required pace to vaccinate 75% of population with one dose or more by June 30th.
Canada now has over 20% of its population with one dose or more, nearly 25% of adults.
24.7% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.6% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (28.2%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (6.5%).
Yesterday 5 out of 10 provinces in Canada met the required pace to vaccinate 75% of population with one dose or more by June 30th. Note: PEI dumped several days of data today.
A quick thread on the interconnectedness of power and NG markets. Others have discussed the interdependence and asymmetries of these two energy markets (e.g. @CostaSamaras & @MichaelEWebber).
I want to talk about how the Texas cold snap propagated through power & gas markets.
Let's start with Texas itself. Here's North Hub day-ahead market prices for power during the event. Pinned at $8000-9000/MWh through the event. Now back to a more typical $20.
And here's gas in Texas, namely the Waha hub in West Texas. Reaching $200/MMbtu, from a more typical $2-3. Other points reached even higher prices.
The demand for gas for both direct heat and power gen clearly links these two commodities within Texas.
Quick (chart) thread on Ercot generation during the power outages.
Can't recall who made this plot, but it's excellent (albeit without y-axes!!).
Changes over time are informative, but not the whole story.
In terms of how each fuel type performed, we not only want to judge its absolute production, but also relative to what was expected of it.
Ercot did a Winter 2020/21 resource adequacy assessment in November and came up with the following:
67GW thermal+hydro
7GW wind
0.3GW solar
They also ran "risk scenarios", essentially more thermal outages or less wind. Interestingly they didn't run the extreme forced thermal outage *AND* the extreme low wind scenario together!