THREAD on VACCINATION & EQUITY in ENGLAND:

I know I've tweeted about this before, but now we can look at how gaps by deprivation and ethnicity change with age groups and what that might mean...

TLDR: widening gaps but access and communication will be key I suspect 1/5
By deprivation:
Vax coverage gaps *widen* markedly as we move to young ager groups. This is not just a time effect - coverage has flattened off for all these age groups.

Access (able to leave work to get vaccinated, travel, internet access) & communication likely issues 2/5
By ethnicity:
Much larger gaps for all age groups by ethnicity but less impact by age.

Different but overlapping reasons driving ethnicity gaps compared to deprivation gaps? 3/5
Another general trend - all groups seeing lower coverage at younger ages. Even the highest group (least deprived) is not over 90% for the 50-54 group.

Is this trend likely to continue as we vaccinate younger cohorts - particularly with worried about side effects? 4/5
What to do about it? Govt needs to keep communication why vaccines are important and that they are safe.

AND we need to make it as easy as possible for people to get them - esp people unable to get during working day or unable to travel far. 5/5

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More from @chrischirp

15 Apr
The latest PHE variant of concern update is out...

TWO KEY things:

1) B1351 ("South African") variant continuing to spread (as we've seen in the headlines!)

2) 77 cases (!) of the new B1617 "double mutant" variant discovered in India .

B1617 is worrying because... 1/3
It has some potentially worrying mutations NOT seen in SA, Kent or Brazil strains.
forbes.com/sites/williamh…

This variant *might* escape both T-cell and antibody action. India going through a big surge - mix of B117 & new B1617 (location dependent)
science.thewire.in/health/sars-co… 2/3
As I tweeted yesterday, India should be on the red list (as should many other countries that currently aren't btw) *and* Johnson should *not* go on a trip to Delhi this month! madness!

Read 4 tweets
14 Apr
THREE TWEETS:

1. The situation in India is very bad and worsening.
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr…

It is frankly insane that Bangladesh and Pakistan are on the UK travel red list countries but India is not.

gov.uk/guidance/trans…
2. Globally we are back in a pandemic that is as bad as it has been and no sign of peaking yet.

Deaths are trailing cases by a few weeks as expected but they are also rising steeply - this isn't just more testing or ok because we have vaccines & better treatments.
3. Out of control covid anywhere is a danger everywhere.

We need to address vaccine inequality ASAP. This is urgent - morally for global fairness & self-interestedly to stop future UK waves.

We'll be covering this in Friday's @IndependentSage
briefing - join us!
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
THREAD on cases in the UK:

TLDR things going in right direction overall but some areas of concern for deprived communities & in schools. 1/19
Overall cases in the UK have fallen over last week after a long flat period. Note that tests have fallen too though (mainly lateral flow device (LFD) tests as schools are on holiday). 2/19
The ONS infection survey with data to 3 April - which tests random sample every week - reports new cases going *up* in England, flat in Wales and NI & going *down* in Scotland. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
9 Apr
Three charts to highlight vaccine impact in England... Hospitals: For almost all the second wave hospitalisations were highest in the over 65s - but at the end of February the under 50s (unvaccinated) overtake over 65s in admissions... This is good news on vax impact! 1/3
Deaths: REACT released its latest report this week. In it they overlaid actual deaths onto infection trends adjusted for the time lag between infection & death and scaled for case fatality rate. Since Jan deaths have dropped off the infection line - more vaccine impact! 2/3
Deaths *and* Hospitals: Using published case, hospital and death data we see similar trends as this beautiful plot from @jburnmurdoch shows.

PHE estimates that vaccines have saved 10,000 lives so far! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…… 3/3
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
Quick THREAD on vaccine progress in UK:

Firstly, vaccines have slowed down a bit since March - 1.6m jabs last week (but includes Easter weekend).

We are now giving mostly 2nd doses. Expect that to continue until end of May... should still be able to jab 40+ by end May tho. 1/6
53-58% of adults in UK have had a first dose of vaccine and 11%-18% have received a second dose.

Wales is storming ahead with its second doses! 2/6
Digging into English data now...

Almost 60% of over 80's have had their second dose which is great.

One thing to watch out for is whether we will get *everyone* coming back for their second dose across age groups - it's important to get full benefit from the vaccines. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
SHORT UPDATE THREAD on COVID and DEPRIVATION

This week @ShaunLintern highlighted the growing divide in case numbers between North and South in England.

Just adding a few more graphs as context for this really important issue. 1/5

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Firstly, overall there is a big difference in case rates between most and least deprived - almost threefold.

That means more deprived areas are in a much more precarious situation as we open up. 2/5 Image
But the size of the gap varies a lot by region - it's higher in the north and midlands than the south and highest by far in Yorkshire & the Humber.

This will be contributing to the higher case rates in the north.

London is by far lowest differential. I'm not sure why. 3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets

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